Our Insights

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A balancing act: Securing European gas and power markets

– The invasion of Ukraine has shocked the European energy market. Europe may need to intensify efforts to reduce gas demand to balance the market and ensure security of supply while avoiding price spikes.
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Global Energy Perspective 2022
– We’re in the midst of an energy transition that continues to evolve.
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The world needs to capture, use, and store gigatons of CO2: Where and how?
– Strategically building carbon capture, utilization, and storage hubs near clusters of large emitters can lower costs and accelerate... scale-up.
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Unlocking Asia–Pacific’s vast carbon-capture potential
– Asia–Pacific has vast CCUS potential—but substantial challenges remain. With eight assertive actions, regulators and... companies can boost CCUS in the region.
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Could supply-chain issues derail the energy transition?
– Electric-vehicle penetration is the biggest driver of oil demand declines in the energy transition. However, emerging supply bottlenecks... for key battery materials could be an unexpected barrier.
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Getting digital transformation right in resource-heavy industries
– Eight core principles can help companies in the energy, oil and gas, basic materials, and utilities sectors achieve successful... digital transformations.
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Charting the global energy landscape to 2050: Emissions
– At the end of COP27, concerns are growing that a 1.5º Pathway is getting out of sight. Our latest Global Energy Perspective... offers important insight on how temperature increases vary across scenarios.
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How North American natural gas could alleviate the global energy crisis
– North America has the potential to provide affordable natural gas that could address energy security and help decarbonization—here’s... what it will take to do so.
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2022 LNG Buyer Survey: Adapting to an uncertain future
– Our recent survey illustrates how the liquefied natural gas market has shifted in response to concerns about supply security and... environmental sustainability.
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Refining in the energy transition through 2040
– The size of the global refining industry varies dramatically across different energy transition scenarios by 2040. Assumptions... on electric-vehicle penetration, policy commitments, and rationalization behavior are key drivers of the difference in outcomes.
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Scaling the CCUS industry to achieve net-zero emissions
– Carbon capture, utilization, and storage can help hard-to-abate industries achieve net-zero emissions. Scaling the industry will... require action by governments, investors, and industrial players.
Blog Post

Key factors impacting short-term natural gas prices in North America
– The volatility in energy prices is impacting everyone. This winter, three key factors could decrease natural gas prices in North... America in the short term.
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How the Gulf of Mexico can further the energy transition
– Long recognized as a pillar of US energy production, deepwater Gulf of Mexico could help provide the resources the world needs... during the energy transition.
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Ethanol and corn markets: Impact from the E15 gasoline waiver
– Following an announcement by the White House several weeks earlier, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a waiver... on April 29 to allow the sale of E15 gasoline this summer.
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Reflecting on 2021 global LNG and European pipeline flows
– Over the past year, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices reached an all-time high. An analysis of the data identifies key insights... into the implications for the LNG industry for 2022 and beyond.
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Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: April 2023
– Our dashboard explores key short-term signposts impacting oil demand, supply, and prices.
Blog Post

The global energy landscape is going through major shifts: What does this mean for value pools in energy?
– The world’s energy systems are undergoing rapid transitions triggered by simultaneous shifts in technological development,... regulations, consumer preferences, and investor sentiment.
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Strategies for OFSE companies confronting the energy transition
– The oil-field-services-and-equipment sector has steadily declined for more than a decade. Companies can consider three broad strategies... to revive their fortunes and chart a pathway for the future.
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Snapshot of gas and LNG flows and market dynamics: Q3 2021
– Our dashboards summarize recent gas and LNG trends and developments that have occurred in key markets around the world.
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The right product, the right price: Purchasing solutions in chemicals
– Eleven key levers can reduce costs and provide category managers with real-time insights on volatile commodities prices.
Report

Global downstream outlook to 2035
– For the global refining market, recovery from the COVID-19 crisis will vary across regions and scenarios.
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The impact of decarbonization on the gas and LNG industry
– The energy mix is shifting across industries. Developing a five- to ten-year strategy can help oil and gas companies navigate... the long term.
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Petrochemicals 2020: A year of resilience and the road to recovery
– Most companies showed recovery of revenues and profits to pre-COVID-19 levels in the third and fourth quarters. A deeper dive... into the numbers illustrates several implications for 2021.
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LNG portfolio optimization: Putting the business model to the test
– Most integrated gas players are experiencing earnings pressure from the 2020 down cycle in gas prices. To become more resilient,... companies will need to explore portfolio optimization. Here's how.
Report

Global oil supply-and-demand outlook to 2040
– COVID-19 sent shocks through global oil markets, with oil demand and supply still struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels.... Our outlook looks back at 2020 and presents our most-likely scenarios for oil demand, supply, and prices through 2040.
Report

Global gas outlook to 2050
– While we saw high levels of volatility in 2020, the outlook for gas and LNG shows strong growth, resilience, and changing expectations... for emissions amid widespread carbon-neutrality aspirations.
Blog Post

Reflecting on 2020 LNG flows
– COVID-19 caused unprecedented volatility in LNG markets, with spot prices at both record lows and highs. An analysis of data from... the past year illustrates what the future may hold for the industry.
Interactive

Global Energy Perspective 2021
– The Global Energy Perspective describes our view on how the energy transition can unfold, through four scenarios.
Blog Post

Ending the zero-sum game in offshore drilling
– Re-establishing long-term profitability calls for bold steps to tackle the structural oversupply of active rigs
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The path to recovery for US oil production
– Operators are likely to pursue a three-phase recovery that tracks the cost curve of activating production
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How tapping connectivity in oil and gas can fuel higher performance
– Price and demand pressures in the oil and gas sector make the potential value embedded in advanced connectivity for exploration... and production more important than ever.
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The end of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline: What does it mean for the North American natural gas industry?
– The decision in early July to cancel the Atlantic Coast Pipeline raises questions about the outlook for natural gas in North America.
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How COVID-19 and market changes are shaping LNG buyer preferences
– Our recent survey gauges how the pandemic has affected buyer sentiment with expectations of an increased reliance on the spot... and short-term market.
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Institutionalizing drilling and completions efficiency in US unconventionals
– US shale drillers lead the world—but even so, investing to improve drilling efficiency, well design, and back-office functions... can deliver returns that far outweigh the costs.
Article - McKinsey Quarterly

Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take
– Decarbonizing global business at scale is achievable, but the math is daunting.
Blog Post

Monitoring the Permian basin using Earth observations
– A novel way to gain an accurate view of shale activity in close to real time is through the use of satellites. Remote-sensing... capabilities have expanded rapidly, along with the commercial availability of high-resolution and very-high-resolution images. 
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Winning the race for world-class LNG optimization capabilities
– The race to claim the portfolio development and optimization space has led to double-digit growth in the number of LNG commercial... roles. Investment in trading and origination capabilities is needed.
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Reflecting on 2019 LNG flows
– The past year has seen a marked increase in LNG. Our analysis outlines the implications for 2020.
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Natural-gas liquids on a roll
– The boom in US natural-gas liquids shows no sign of slowing. But producers and exporters should be aware of bottlenecks and price... disconnects in the logistics chain connecting supply and demand.
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The future of natural gas in North America
– What role will natural gas play in North America’s energy mix over the next decades? And how can players position themselves to... manage threats and capture opportunities from the energy transition?
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The future is now: How oil and gas companies can decarbonize
– As the pressure to act on climate change builds, the industry should consider a range of options.
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Toward a net-zero future: Decarbonizing upstream oil and gas operations
– To operate well is to operate responsibly—but more must be done on sustainable design and balanced portfolios to achieve a net-zero... future.
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What shipowners, refiners, and traders should know about IMO 2020
– New global limits on sulfur content for marine fuels will have a significant impact on fuel markets. Our forecast for 2020 shows... the biggest challenge will be overcoming uncertainty.
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What’s fueling the global downstream market?
– Listen to the recording from our recent webinar: “Three factors fueling the global downstream market.”
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Setting the bar for global LNG cost competitiveness
– By 2035, unmet LNG demand could reach 100 to 140 MTPA. With more than 100 pre-FID projects totaling over 1,100 MTPA in contention... to meet this demand, how can operators improve their competitive position?
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Global refining: Profiting in a downstream downturn
– Amid long-term margin declines in the global refining market, players must move quickly to adjust their portfolio strategies.
Podcast

Peak energy, peak oil, and the rise of renewables: An executive’s guide to the global energy system
– Global energy demand is headed toward a plateau over the next ten to 20 years, as the world focuses on electrification, energy... efficiency, and more service-driven economic growth.
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Forced boil-off gas: The future of LNG as a fuel for LNG carriers
– New limitations on sulphur emissions will require ship operators to consider alternative fuels. As a result, the use of forced... boil-off liquefied natural gas is likely to increase.
Report

North American gas outlook to 2030
– Here’s what you need to know about the North American outlook for gas demand, supply, and price to 2030.
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Recharging economies: The EV-battery manufacturing outlook for Europe
– As uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) increases, the EV-battery market represents an opportunity for European players. We assess... the potential and look at factors guiding the location of production capacity.
Report

Offshore-drilling outlook to 2035
– Our perspective on the global offshore-drilling market offers projections to 2035.
Blog Post

How did the European natural gas market evolve in 2018?
– The European gas market has seen several shifts—driven by a milder winter, rising European LNG demand due to attractive... prices in Europe compared to Asia, and the increasing importance of Nord Stream.
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Brazil has the potential for a 70% oil production increase by 2035—but is it likely?
– Brazil can look forward to some positive news when it comes to oil production for the next few years.
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Helping the industry navigate the energy transition
– By 2035, global energy demand is expected to plateau, and economic growth and global energy demand will be decoupled for the first... time in history. With that in mind, how can organizations prepare?
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Reflecting on the 2018 LNG market: 15 key insights
– This past year was significant for the global LNG market, with plenty of twists and turns, winners and losers.
Practice hwhc

Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2035
Oil supply and demand perspective with balances to 2035 and macro outlooks on global oil prices.
Interactive

Global Energy Perspective 2019
– The Global Energy Perspective Reference Case provides our view on how the energy transition will unfold.
Practice hwhc

Global Energy Perspective: Accelerated Transition
Our outlook reviews eight potential shifts that could accelerate the energy transition—from faster uptake of electric vehicles... to accelerated cost reduction for renewables—and the impact each shift could have on annual oil, gas, coal, and power demand to 2050.
Blog Post

Eight shifts that would result in a much more rapid global energy transition
– We may be closer to a radical energy transition than expected, with some far-reaching developments already under way.
Article

Lubes growth opportunities remain despite switch to electric vehicles
– Lubricating oils have traditionally been one of the most attractive areas in the oil and gas value chain, but disruption is on... the horizon with the rise of electrification in the transport sector.
Blog Post

Geopolitics can lead to a hundred-dollar oil world, but can it sustain it?
– Tighter market balances have since driven Brent to around USD80/bbl, though the combination of OPEC supply and MARPOL demand disruptions... could tighten markets even more, putting further upward pressure on prices.
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IMO 2020 and the outlook for marine fuels
– In 2020, the global limit on sulfur content for all marine fuels will be lowered dramatically, sending shockwaves through global... refined-product markets while widening margins and differentials. Most refiners are still trying to come to grips with the potential threats and opportunities that will emerge as a result of this regulation.
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The impact of rising US LNG exports on global markets
– Earlier this year, the opening of Cove Point marked a turning point for US LNG exports, placing the US 5th in the 2018 export... ranking, and creating major shifts in demand, supply, and pricing dynamics.
Blog Post

Permian, we have a gas problem(s)
– The Permian is experiencing its first natural gas problem. Gas production is starting to exceed pipeline capacity exiting the... Permian, and in-basin prices are falling as a result. Paradoxically, the second problem is a potential overreaction to the first problem: market fundamentals could attract too many pipelines, and the Permian runs the risk of having underutilized pipelines.
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In full swing: North America’s crude prices and changing takeaway capacity
– The first half of 2018 saw crude production continuing to rise in North America. US crude exports are also on the rise, but ample... production growth and constrained takeaway capacity have combined to create a tight market with big discounts.
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The European electric bus market is charging ahead, but how will it develop?
– Widescale adoption of electric buses in Europe is near. There is still a lot of uncertainty around eBus battery charging strategies... and the optimal type of charging hardware, mainly related to costs and operational flexibility.
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Decarbonization of industrial sectors: The next frontier
– Though deep decarbonization is possible, it will require substantial investments and big changes to the energy system. Technological... breakthroughs, lower energy prices, changing consumer preferences, or new regulations will be critical to achieving this goal.
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The EU gas network resilience through advanced analytics
– How advanced analytics can help you understand the European gas network system response under demand and supply discontinuities.
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Five key questions clients ask about our energy demand outlook to 2050
– Our Global Energy Perspective summarizes our energy demand outlook to 2050. Based on client conversations we’ve had since... its release, we’re answering five key questions that give more insight into our forecast for the energy transition.
Blog Post

MARPOL 2020: An opportunity for OPEC to reclaim market share
– New MARPOL limits on sulfur content in marine fuels could result in 1-1.8MMb/d of additional refinery runs to produce higher volumes... of marine gasoil. Such additional crude demand could provide OPEC with an opportunity to reclaim market share.
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LNG regas terminals: Diversification the way forward
– The days of LNG terminals as simple LNG regasification facilities that only optimize availability and operational reliability... could soon be over, with an LNG hub model focused on additional value-adding services, particularly in small-scale downstream, beginning to emerge.
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Metal mining constraints on the electric mobility horizon
– Cobalt, nickel, and lithium demand for electric vehicle batteries is expected to boom up to 2025 and beyond. Can additional supply,... recycling, and new battery technology development keep up with demand growth or will the adoption of electric vehicles be hampered by supply constraints?
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What if the latest wind and solar auction results were the new reality of electricity prices?
– With ever lower auction results being reported, the question arises: what would the effect be on our power markets if the average... cost trajectory followed the auction results?
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Diesel demand: still growing globally despite Dieselgate
– Two years after Dieselgate, the impact of the diesel emissions scandal on final demand appears to be smaller than many expected,... and has largely been offset by other demand drivers. Going forward, we expect global middle distillate demand growth to be fairly robust in the next few years.
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US natural gas market reaction to the ‘Bomb Cyclone’
– Cold weather led to record demand and storage withdrawals which increased prices to over $100/MMbtu
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5 key signposts that will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term
– Our updated title="Global Oil Outlook">Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2030 explores in detail the 5 signposts that will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term. This article provides a quick overview of each signpost, color-coded to reflect the positive or negative impact on oil prices.
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How US LNG may create new pricing fundamentals over the coming five years
– In 2017, the US exported 12.4 million tons of LNG, a significant increase from the 3.1 million tons of LNG export in 2016. This... rise has already begun to change the global LNG flow patterns.
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Proppant demand outlook for the Bakken and Permian
– North American proppant demand is up from 45 million tons in 2016 to 110 million tons in 2018. This will be beneficial for suppliers... and drive low-cost sand flooding into the Permian.
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Can carbon prices fire up gas demand in electricity generation?
– With governments revising their energy policies to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, carbon prices are back on the table.... What effect will carbon prices realistically have on natural gas consumption and emissions, and how will it vary over time and by location?
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MARPOL implications on refining and shipping markets
– Opportunities will depend on how other sectors respond.
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New reality: electric trucks and their implications on energy demand
– When DHL decided in 2013 that it wanted to upgrade its fleet to electric powertrains, it could not find a suitable vehicle or... an original equipment manufacturer willing to develop one. So, they decided to develop a vehicle themselves.