Brent crude oil prices increased by USD5.3/bbl m-o-m to USD80.1/bbl in July. The price increase is primarily driven by the tightening market balance and OPEC output cuts. Changes in July compared to the prior month include:
- Global oil demand. Global liquids demand decreased m-o-m by 0.8 MMb/d in July to 101.4 MMb/d. Declines in the US (-0.5 MMb/d) and India (-0.3 MMb/d) accounted for the majority of the demand decrease
- OPEC 10 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 10 overall production decreased by 0.7 MMb/d m-o-m to 28.3 MMb/d in July. Saudi Arabia’s production during the month de creased by 0.8 MMb/d to 9.3 MMb/d, after increasing by 0.15 MMb/d the previous month
- Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased by 0.3 MMb/d in July to 58.9 MMb/d driven by supply increases primarily in Canada (~0.3 MMb/d) and Brazil (~0.3 MMb/d). Russian production remained steady at 10.5 MMb/d in July
- US shale oil production. US shale oil production remained stable at 9.4 MMb/d in July. The number of active rigs has continued to decline m-o-m to 607 during July (down by 92 since the start of 2023)
- Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya remained stable at 4.7 MMb/d in July
- Commercial inventories. Global commercial inventories declined by 5 million barrels in July to 4.52 billion barrels. Most of the decline came from non OECD inventories
- Market sentiment. Saudi Arabia announced decision to extend the voluntary 1-MMb/d cuts until September. Russia also announced it would restrict its crude oil exports by 0.3 MMb/d in September. These actions, mixed with uncertain economic growth in China and other countries, point to a tighter market
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Oil supply & demand dashboard: July 2023
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