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Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: February 2023

Our dashboard explores key short-term signposts impacting oil demand, supply, and prices.

Following on from January’s trend, the average Brent crude oil spot price remained flat at USD82/bbl in February, positive sentiment driven by higher demand in China and Europe was offset by a well-supplied market due to non-OPEC production growth and inventories. Fluctuations in short-term signposts compared to the prior month include:

  • Global oil demand. Global liquids demand increased by 2.6 MMb/d in February to 100.9 MMb/d, with European demand seeing the largest monthly gain of 0.7 MMb/d. Overall, global demand is up by 0.3 MMb/d y-o-y
  • OPEC 10 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 10 production remained steady m-o-m at 29.4 MMb/d. Marginal output gains in Saudi and Nigeria were offset by slight declines the UAE and Angola. Overall, OPEC 10 was producing ~0.9 MMb/d below the revised quota agreed upon in October
  • Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased 0.5MMb/d m-o-m to 57.7 MMb/d in February, driven by gains in Norway and Russia. Even though non-OPEC production levels have increased m-o-m over the last three consecutive months, overall production is down 0.3 MMb/d compared to pre-pandemic levels
  • US shale oil production. US shale oil production increased by 0.1 MMb/d m-o-m in February to pre-pandemic levels of 9.1 MMb/d. The number of active rigs in the US declined by 6 units to 693 rigs. The total number of rigs has more than doubled y-o-y
  • Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya have increased slightly m-o-m to 4.5 MMb/d. Iran and Libya saw a combined increase of 0.1 MMbl/d in production in February, while volumes in Venezuela declined m-o-m
  • Commercial inventories. Global commercial inventories remaining steady m-o-m at 4.47 billion barrels in February. A slight increase in OECD inventories of around 10 million barrels m-o-m was offset by a decline in non-OECD inventories
  • Market sentiment. Russia announced plans to cut its oil production by up to 500Kb/d in March. Also, following its February ministerial meeting, OPEC+ made no recommendation to change the group’s existing production policy therefore is expected to maintain its production quotas announced in October 2022

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