Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: February 2024

Brent crude oil prices rose in February, increasing by USD3.4/bbl m-o-m to USD83.48/bbl. Prices rose due to strong economic growth in the US, rise in demand in Europe and China, and intensifying supply chain concerns in West Asia:

  • Global oil demand. Global liquids demand increased m-o-m by 2.6 MMb/d to 102.9 MMb/d. The increase was driven by Europe and China, where demand increased m-o-m by 0.9 MMb/d and 0.5 MMb/d, respectively
  • OPEC 10 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 10’s production remained relatively steady at 26.7 MMb/d. Several OPEC+ members have announced extensions of their voluntary cuts of 2.2 MMb/d for the second quarter of the year
  • Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production decreased slightly by 0.4 MMb/d m-o-m to 60.3 MMb/d. The decline was led by Brazilian offshore production, which witnessed a m-o-m decline of 0.2 MMb/d
  • US shale oil production. US shale oil production bounced back up by 0.4 MMb/d m-o-m in February to 9.7 MMb/d, after witnessing a 0.5-MMb/d decline in January as a result of shut-downs due to cold weather across the central US. The number of active rigs increased slightly to 557 in January (up by 5 m-o-m, but still down by 142 since the start of 2023, i.e. ~25% difference)
  • Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya increased slightly m-o-m, averaging at ~5.2 MMb/d for the month of February with only a marginal 0.2-MMb/d change in production from the three countries
  • Commercial inventories.1 Global commercial inventories decreased by ~32 million barrels in January to 4.5 billion barrels with the decrease in inventories primarily attributed to OECD countries
  • Market sentiment. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices have been slowly increasing for the past few months; average prices in February were the highest since October 2023. Part of this can be attributed to the escalating conflict in West Asia, as several major oil tanker companies are pausing and rerouting traffic toward the Red Sea as missile attacks on vessels claimed their first casualty in mid-February. Further, the extension of supply cuts by OPEC+ adds to the uncertainty

1 Non-OECD share of inventories is estimated, assuming that non-OECD inventories have 50% days of demand cover of OECD inventories

Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: May 2021

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Oil supply & demand dashboard: February 2024

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