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Imagine even the poorest country in the world achieving the prosperity and quality of life of today’s Switzerland—by 2100? In these turbulent times, it seems crazy, doesn’t it? But it is possible, write Chris Bradley, Nick Leung, and Sven Smit in The Wall Street Journal.

Despite an extraordinary economic payoff — every $1 spent on climate adaptation avoids up to $7 in damages — the world is spending less than half of what is needed, leaving billions of people unprotected, write Annabel Farr, Mekala Krishnan, and Olivia White in Devex.

We seem to be in uncharted territory: a new era. This is the context in which our new book, A Century of Plenty: A Story of Progress for Generations to Come, is set. It looks back at the past 100 years of unprecedented human progress, and asks whether, for all current uncertainties, we can pull it off again. Or do even better, write Chris Bradley, Nick Leung, and Sven Smit in Fortune.

What does 2026, the Year of the Horse, pose for China? The headlines may focus on Trump tariffs or real estate woes, but there are more subtle trends happening that will define China’s economic trajectory. China presents new challenges for international business, particularly from confident local competitors, but there are still opportunities for disciplined global executives. Five key questions will matter as the world’s second-largest economy navigates a fast-changing global economy, write Joe Ngai and Jeongmin Seong in Fortune.

From energy to electronics, foreign direct investment (FDI) seeds new sectors and ecosystems, and has been pivotal in Asia’s economic development. While the region remains central for these capital flows—with about half of all FDI coming from or going to an Asian economy—the image many hold of Western FDI setting up factories on Asian soil needs to be updated to the new realities on the ground, write Gautam Kumra, Jeongmin Seong, and Nick Leung in Bloomberg.

As the new year begins, many business leaders are finalizing goals for 2026 and priorities for growth, productivity, and resilience. For most, AI is already on the agenda. But the real question for the year ahead is not whether to adopt AI—it is whether organizations are prepared to redesign work itself around a new partnership between people and increasingly intelligent agents and robots, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Even as AI automates many tasks, companies that invest in human skills will gain a competitive edge, write Alexis Krivkovich and Anu Madgavkar in The Wall Street Journal.

Effective climate adaptation can strengthen countries’ resilience, protect vulnerable communities, and support economic growth. But while the world has the tools, the level of investment needed to close today’s adaptation gap, let alone to address likely future needs, has fallen far short, write Mekala Krishnan, Annabel Farr, and Kanmani Chockalingam in Project Syndicate.

The good news is that the world is richer than ever, with $600 trillion in wealth. The bad news is that it is out of financial balance, write Jan Mischke, Olivia White, and Rebecca J. Anderson in Fortune.

The anxiety that workers feel about advances in artificial intelligence is completely understandable—but often misplaced, write Lareina Yee and Anu Madgavkar in Time.

Major new technologies have always changed how people work—and artificial intelligence may be the most powerful yet. Many worry this means mass job losses. Our research suggests something more nuanced—and ultimately more hopeful. AI, in its current form, works best in collaboration with people, not in place of them. Making that collaboration succeed—and ensuring people thrive—will require rethinking how organizations develop and use skills, from frontline employees to top executives, write Anu Madgavkar and Lareina Yee in Fortune.

As COP30 kicks off in Belem, an inevitable question is where does the energy transition stand? New McKinsey Global Institute research offers an answer, by examining the physical transformation at the heart of the transition, write Chris Bradley, Mekala Krishnan, and Humayun Tai in Fortune.

Sumatra, Bucheon, Debrecen, Phoenix: At first glance, these far-flung places could hardly be less alike. But they have something important in common. They have all attracted significant amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI), writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Shifts in greenfield FDI are shaking up the industries of the future and rewiring global trade. Geographic distance is easy to understand: look at a map and countries that are eight centimeters apart are obviously more distant than those three centimeters apart. “Geopolitical distance” is a more sophisticated idea: it refers to how closely aligned trade and investment partners are. Japan and the United States, for example, are close geopolitically. Germany and Russia are not, write Olivia White and Tiago Devesa in Foreign Policy.

From electric vehicles and generative AI to modular construction and obesity drugs, new industries are transforming economies and societies worldwide. To seize these opportunities, developing countries must create welcoming business environments, attract foreign direct investment, and invest in human capital, write Kweilin Ellingrud, Kevin Russell, and Suhayl Chettih in Project Syndicate.

Europe must boost investment. Its productivity and competitiveness depend on it – as do its future wealth and debt sustainability. Europe, like much of the rest of the world, still faces a bloated balance sheet. Its assets have ballooned faster than its productive output for more than two decades now. And as the world’s wealth grew to an unprecedented $600tn this year, the eurozone’s wealth also climbed to $135tn – 6.6 times its GDP, write Tiago Devesa, Jan Mischke, and Sylvain Johansson in Friends of Europe.

If you listen to financial markets, the U.S. is on a surefire path of accelerating productivity growth. Some measures of price-to-earnings ratios are higher than they have been in the past two decades. Stock market bulls can point to the productivity promise of artificial intelligence and the 19-fold investment jump since 2010 of the largest tech firms into research and development and capital expenditure. To boot, recent productivity figures look good: 2024 saw double the growth rate of the 2010s, write Olivia White, Rebecca J. Anderson, and Jan Mischke in Barron's.

Uncertainty? Check. Risk of economic weakness ahead? Also check. Amid ramped up geopolitical tensions and seemingly hasty market-moving policies, competitiveness—and thus productivity—takes greater importance during this second half of a tumultuous year. How might Asia’s multinational companies rise to the occasion now? Chris Bradley, Gautam Kumra, and Jan Mischke help answer these questions in Bloomberg.

At first glance, the future of tech looks limitless: just think how fast artificial intelligence (AI), including generative and agentic AI, is advancing. Already, 80 percent of companies are using AI in at least one business function and more than 90 percent are planning to increase their AI investments. But as business leaders know, past performance does not guarantee future results, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Productivity gains at a national level can be driven by a surprisingly small number of companies. A new McKinsey Global Institute report called The Power of One finds that a mere 2% of companies drove around 65% of their national sample’s positive productivity growth through their bold strategies. In fact, a dozen more companies like Apple in the U.S. could have doubled U.S. productivity growth, the study asserts, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Productivity is an essential factor for economic development and remains an unresolved issue in Mexico. Businesses have a key role to play in leading change, write Olivia White and Maria Jesus Ramirez in Expansion.

A new study that followed 8,300 companies in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States finds that cutting costs is not sufficient to boost productivity overall. Instead, the greatest gains come from those few firms that dare to pursue new models in the face of uncertainty, write Chris Bradley and Jan Mischke in Project Syndicate.

Only 10% of the low-emissions technologies needed for the global energy transition have been deployed. An expansive view of energy innovation is needed to deliver a successful transition, improving low-emissions technologies and bringing about profound change in energy supply and consumption, write Tiago Devesa and Mekala Krishnan in World Economic Forum.

Chameleons change their color to blend in. The Great Wall can be seen from space. Productivity growth comes from thousands of firms adopting the latest technologies and processes. All sound plausible—and all are wrong. The reality is that productivity growth comes from a small number of companies moving a mile—by finding new ways to create business value—rather than by many firms moving a few inches through imitation, write Eric Kutcher and Olivia White in Fortune.

About 4.7 billion people are below the “economic empowerment line” – meaning they can’t afford the daily basics essential for a decent quality of life. The problem is concentrated in lower- and middle-income economies, but about 270 million live in high-income economies, surrounded by prosperity. While governments are key to reducing poverty and raising living standards, the private sector can tailor initiatives to economically empower more people, write Kweilin Ellingrud and Kevin Russell in World Economic Forum.

With their working-age populations shrinking, many emerging economies are set to experience the same demographic problems plaguing developed countries. They must act now to prepare for the moment when their demographic dividend fades and the burden of supporting an older population becomes unavoidable, write Anu Madgavkar and Marc Canal Noguer in Project Syndicate.

Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) is grabbing a lot of headlines, but let’s look beyond the latest debates to understand some labor market dynamics that can help employers hire and retain talent to meet business needs. New research from the McKinsey Global Institute compares women’s and men’s work experiences to better understand the tough trade-offs at play in the world of work, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

The headlines are consistent: The gender pay gap has narrowed, but American women who work full time still make only 84 cents for every dollar men do. That’s certainly better than at the turn of the century—when it was 77 cents—but far short of parity. So, is this proof of continuing workplace discrimination? Not so much, says new research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), write Anu Madgavkar and Sven Smit in Fortune.

The McKinsey Global Institute have identified 18 emerging fields of business likely to deliver big revenues and profits. Given its talent base and vast market, India mustn't miss the action in these, write Rajat Dhawan and Chris Bradley in Mint.

Over the past year, the world’s declining birth rates have become a hot topic of conversation. Two-thirds of humanity now live in countries where fertility rates have fallen below replacement levels and now pose a threat to continued future prosperity in some regions, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Falling birth rates have become a hot topic around the world, and nowhere are they falling faster than in advanced economies in Asia. Together with China, these economies are undergoing a demographic wave that will soon wash over other nations, write Anu Madgavkar and Gautam Kumra in Bloomberg.

Mexico's population is aging, which will affect the country's future economic growth. Increasing productivity is crucial to addressing this new demographic reality, write Sergio Waisser and Marc Canal in Expansion.

Despite progress in reducing extreme poverty, about 60 percent of the global population—4.7 billion people, including an estimated 70 million in the United States and 200 million in other high-income countries—live below the economic empowerment line. This yardstick, developed by the McKinsey Global Institute, measures if individuals’ essential needs are being met. It defines a standard basket of basic goods and services for a frugal yet decent quality of life —including country-specific costs for adequate housing, food, healthcare, education, transportation, and a small amount of emergency savings, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

To help those struggling with extreme poverty access essentials like food, shelter, and health care, policymakers must improve affordability in addition to fostering economic growth. By creating quality jobs and reducing the costs of basic goods and services, companies are well positioned to drive inclusive development, write Kweilin Ellingrud, Marco Piccitto, and Tilman Tacke in Project Syndicate.

As that great American philosopher Yogi Berra once mused, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Nonetheless, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) recently named 18 “arenas of competition” that could transform the business landscape over the next 15 years, writes Eric Kutcher in Fortune.

Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy, employing nearly 60% of workers and contributing almost 40% to the nation's value-added output. Accounting for 34,752,434 companies, 99.9% of all American companies are small businesses. However, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in the U.S. are only half as productive as large companies, a stark contrast to the 60% productivity ratio seen in other advanced economies, according to research by my colleagues at the McKinsey Global Institute. This gap in productivity is equivalent to 5.4% of GDP, making it crucial to boost U.S. competitiveness in a shifting global market, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

What’s often missing from the conversation about getting to net-zero emissions is a recognition of the difficulty in transforming the complex physical assets underlying our current energy system — a system that has been optimized over centuries to deliver high performance, that is deeply embedded in the global economy, and that serves billions of people. McKinsey Global Institute research has identified 25 significant technology and infrastructure challenges that need to be overcome. These relate not only to the development and deployment of low-emissions technologies, but also to the supply chains and underlying infrastructure that need to be transformed, write Mekala Krishnan, Chris Bradley, Humayun Tai, and Tiago Devesa in Harvard Business Review.

Despite the momentum of recent years, the fact remains that the energy transition is only in its infancy. Roughly halfway through what has been called climate’s decisive decade, and in the face of rising global uncertainties, it is time for a pragmatic reality check to understand where are we really, and what it will take to get the rest of the job done, write Chris Bradley, Mekala Krishnan, and Humayun Tai in Fortune.

Of the world’s top 20 companies by market cap at the end of 2005, only four remained at the top as of November 2024. Most of the companies that had displaced the powerhouses of 2005 belonged to a unique category of industries that we call arenas of competition. Arenas have two defining characteristics: they capture an outsize share of the economy’s growth and the market shares of the companies within them change hands at a much higher rate, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Almost six in 10 U.S. workers are employed by a micro, small, or medium-sized enterprise (MSME), a firm with up to 499 employees. For the sake of local economies, their employees, and the social fabric of our communities, getting small businesses back on their feet after a disaster like Hurricane Helene or Hurricane Milton should be a high priority — and big businesses have a critical role to play. They can start with what they know best — business — and take actions to help their smaller counterparts recover, such as stretching out payment terms or being flexible on contract provisions. They can also look outside their own corporate depth chart to provide expert support, facilities, broadband access, or other actions to restore morale and normalcy in impacted communities. Finally, they can share their disaster preparedness playbooks, to help everyone prepare for the next time — because disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton aren’t going away, write Olivia White, Kanmani Chockalingam, Adi Kumar, and Daniel Stephens in Harvard Business Review.

Much of the energy transition that aims to reduce the 85% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that the current system generates lies ahead. Only about 10% of the low-emissions technologies that would need to be in place globally by 2050 to meet global commitments have been deployed in most areas—and harder challenges are to come, write Chris Bradley and Gautam Kumra in Bloomberg.

From 2005 to 2020, a relatively small number of industries—from cloud services to e-commerce to consumer internet to biopharmaceuticals–reshaped the global economy, radically changing businesses and the way we live. These transformative industries,12 in all, belong to a special category we call “arenas of competition.” They are defined by two characteristics: extraordinary growth and exceptional dynamism or shifts in market shares, which signal a new era of competition and signify that new technologies and business models are in play. Business leaders and investors need to be able to recognize this pattern and anticipate how a remade playing field will affect them, write Chris Bradley and Michael Birshan in Fortune.

More productive MSMEs would help North Carolina foster the sustainable and inclusive economy it wants to be. And it would be good for business, too, write David Pralong and Kevin Russell in Charlotte Business Journal.

As world leaders gather in New York for the UN General Assembly this month to assess global progress, it's clear that achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is only possible if we close the gender gap, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

The countries that have grown their overall economies fastest since 2010 did so primarily by hiring more workers. But today, there aren't many workers in reserve. Labor markets remain comparatively tight across most advanced economies, despite more recent softening. This tightness isn't simply a lingering effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rather, it reflects a sustained long-term trend driven by aging workforces and increased labor demand, write Anu Madgavkar and Olivia White in Barron's.

The United States, like the world at large, is experiencing labor shortages that are likely to persist. How can we ensure the economy remains strong despite these labor shortages, and what can employers do about it? Even as U.S. unemployment climbed to its highest level in three years in July, labor market tightness remains a persistent long-term trend, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

The deployment of AI and generative AI along with other economic and business shifts is redefining work in Europe and the United States, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Micro-, small and medium-size enterprises play an underappreciated and outsized role in the global economy, accounting for 90% of businesses. Yet small businesses struggle with productivity in comparison with large companies, despite them playing a central role in economic growth. Recent research from the McKinsey Global Institute highlights important implications on how best to tackle the MSME productivity problem, write Olivia White and Anu Madgavkar in World Economic Forum.

Investment in productivity growth will be critical to shared prosperity even in Asian countries that have made huge strides over the past 25 years, write Chris Bradley and Gautam Kumra in Bloomberg.

Shared prosperity can flow from new technology only if its adoption is accompanied by upgraded skills and proactive worker redeployment. In the age of generative AI, employers should be candid about nascent skills gaps, and governments should focus on enabling all workers to upgrade their skills in a timely and appropriate fashion, write Eric Hazan and Simon Johnson in Project Syndicate.

Labor productivity growth in the United States, Canada, and advanced economies in Western Europe and Asia, has been dismal for almost a generation, hovering around 1% a year. Is this lackluster performance all we can expect for the next generation? It doesn’t have to be, write Chris Bradley, Jan Mischke, and Olivia White in Fortune.

A worker who gets a raise should be pleased to bring home a bigger paycheck. But that bump in income doesn’t improve living standards in any meaningful way if their average rent is still far beyond their means. Most countries gauge prosperity by looking at income or wage growth, but those metrics don’t fully reflect what it takes to get by, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

As we enter a new geo-economic era, Europe's competitiveness is under pressure. New research highlights the need for bold action if European firms are to compete globally. Scaling up across Europe, in areas such as R&D, will help companies increase their competitiveness, write Sven Smit and Jan Mischke in World Economic Forum.

Several key issues must be addressed to accelerate our efforts to reach net zero. This includes innovative energy solutions, driving down technology costs and developing new financing mechanisms, to name a few. Entirely new opportunities will also be created by the transition, write Mekala Krishnan and Humayun Tai in World Economic Forum.

Accelerating productivity growth has always been the sure way to deliver long-term prosperity, and small businesses play a crucial role in driving it. But they struggle with productivity in comparison with large companies. Perhaps counterintuitively, the most effective way to tackle this issue is for micro, small, and medium enterprises to strengthen their networks with large companies, write Anu Madgavkar and Olivia White in Inc.

Productivity growth is the secret sauce that fuels economic success. It determines how much output we get from our inputs, and when it's high, living standards soar, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Changes in the global economic environment, coupled with geopolitical influences, have reset trade relations in various places, and competition has become fierce. All walks of life have been affected, such as the supply chain of the technology industry. However, under the new situation, China is still active and plays an important role in global trade, but its positioning has changed, and operators must always keep an eye on the situation and make adjustments, writes Jeongmin Seong in Hong Kong Economic Times.

World leaders are confronting the challenge of turning ambitious climate commitments into action. They are naturally focused on the essential objective of reducing global emissions quickly. However, the vital work of ensuring a successful net-zero transition will require us to take into account three additional objectives: affordability, reliability, and industrial competitiveness, write Mekala Krishnan Daniel Pacthod, and Sven Smit in Fortune.

The heightened turbulence of the past few years, including the pandemic and geopolitical fracturing at a time of sweeping technological change, gives the world a distinctly uncertain feel. Given all this change, we may well be transitioning to a new era with different economic and political dynamics. In this new era, Asia feels like it is center stage, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

The world remains deeply interconnected, but in the crucible of geopolitics, the pattern of trading is shifting. Investment flows suggest that more change is on its way. New research by the McKinsey Global Institute finds that the way the “geometry” of global trade is reconfiguring matters—for resilience and for economic growth, write Gautam Kumra and Jeongmin Seong in Bloomberg Asia.

The world of work is undergoing a rapid transformation. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated trends in the U.S. labor market that were already in motion, and jobs continue to change at an unprecedented pace. What roles and skills will be in demand? And how can individuals and companies adapt? Kweilin Ellingrud helps answer these questions in Forbes.

When it comes to lifting people out of poverty, how do we define minimum acceptable living standards? For years, poverty has been measured against the World Bank’s $2.15 per day benchmark. In one of history’s biggest achievements, a billion people worldwide climbed above this line in recent decades. Now it’s time to go further — not only by helping the 730 million people still in extreme poverty but by creating the foundations that would give everyone a shot at thriving, write Sven Smit and Anu Madgavkar in World Economic Forum.

New strategies will be needed as it is going to be very different from the past 30 years when the continent, with China at the vanguard, surged to global prominence, write Jeongmin Seong and Nick Leung in China Daily.

You’ve heard it before: When the Covid-19 pandemic began, the way people worked, lived and shopped in cities around the world changed dramatically. Many employees abruptly retreated from traditional offices to home offices – or, as likely, the dining room table. Freed from their daily commutes, many chose to move to roomier abodes in the suburbs. And with fewer of them working and living near urban stores, fewer shopped in their old haunts. In recent months, those many other researchers. Moreover, our analy-behavioral shifts have slowed; others, particularly the switch to hybrid work combining time at home with time at the office, persist, write Jan Mischke, Aditya Sanghvi, Olivia White, and Lola Woetzel in Milken Institute Review.

Countries and companies worldwide have made commitments to get to net zero. But there’s another challenge of equal scale that demands the same urgency: addressing poverty in a decisive way. These goals are linked and have to be tackled in tandem, write Anu Madgavkar and Lola Woetzel in Devex.

The world is grappling with not one, but two existential challenges. On the one hand, it is urgent to raise minimum living standards and meet the aspirations of billions of people around the world who struggle to afford the full range of basic needs. On the other hand, equally important, is the imperative to protect the planet from the worst consequences of climate change. The extent to which we make concerted progress on both fronts in this decade will shape the course of the world for generations to come writes Anu Madgavkar in Brookings.

Africa will shortly be home to the world's largest working age population and a burgeoning consumer class; it’s also rich in natural resources. Despite such human capital and natural resources, Africa’s economic growth and productivity has slowed over the past decade. If nations across the continent deploy their diverse strengths, it could help reimagine Africa’s growth and lead to greater sustainability and prosperity for everyone, write Olivia White and Mayowa Kuyoro in World Economic Forum.

What is poverty? And what, if anything, can business do to ensure that there is less of it? Kweilin Ellingrud helps answer these questions in Forbes.

Mobilizing the investment needed to complete the net-zero transition will require broad public backing and participation. Given that people living in poverty are less likely to support climate action, simultaneous efforts to improve living standards are essential, write Michael Spence, Anu Madgavkar, and Sven Smit in Project Syndicate.

According to McKinsey Global Institute research, approximately 4.7 billion people worldwide, including 2.6 billion in the G20, live below the economic ‘empowerment line’. At the same time, India and the rest of the G20 face another pressing imperative: limiting global warming. The moment calls for addressing both issues, write Rajat Dhawan and Anu Madgavkar in Mint.

The global balance sheet – the sum of all assets and liabilities in the world economy – has expanded continuously for the past two decades. But while its rise has been faster than during this soaring of the world's 'wealth on paper', productivity has slowed and investment dwindled. Boosting productivity is imperative and that requires savings flowing into productive investment and accelerated adoption of digital technologies, write Sven Smit and Jan Mischke in World Economic Forum.

Understanding why the GDP per capita of Mapusa in Goa, India, is around $33,000, same as Porto, Portugal, even when India's per capita GDP hovers at $2,389 (per capital GDP of Portugal is 5X India's) could give an idea of how resources can be deployed where they are most needed, write Chris Bradley and Lola Woetzel in Forbes India.

The U.S. economy has absorbed the massive changes the pandemic brought to the labor market, with 8.6 million occupational shifts over the three years of COVID—50% more than in the previous three years. Now another disruption has arrived: generative artificial intelligence, write Michael Chui, Kweilin Ellingrud, and Asutosh Padhi in Fortune.

Many thinkers today, like those bearded sign-bearers in the cartoons, are proclaiming that the end is near, at least for big cities. Is the doomsaying accurate? The good news is that the bleakest forecasts are too gloomy. The bad news is that urban real estate is indeed facing substantially reduced demand. Stakeholders–owners, tenants, cities, investors, and banks–need to adapt, and they need to do it now. As the fog lifts, sitting things out and hoping for a recovery is not an option, write Jan Mischke, Olivia White, and Aditya Sanghvi in Fortune.

Generative AI technologies like ChatGPT have taken the world by storm, thanks to their stunning ability to parse natural language and make decisions that are remarkably human. This latest advance in artificial intelligence is speedily transforming business and work, leaving companies, governments, and individuals scrambling to assess its impact in real time, write Michael Chui and Lareina Yee in Fast Company.

By winning the talent war, igniting business reinvention, balancing energy affordability and productivity, and shaping the economic context, CEOs can lead the charge towards restoring productivity growth, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

California cannot just glory in the buzz of tech; it needs to raise its game more broadly, write Alexis Krivkovich and Olivia White in San Francisco Business Times.

With U.S. and global inflation lingering at above-average levels, interest rates continuing to rise in major markets, and financial turbulence surfacing, all eyes are on central banks. Their decisions matter. But improving productivity growth matters more, write Asutosh Padhi and Olivia White in Barron's.

The economic, banking, and investment landscape may well look materially different in the next ten years than it did in the last 20. But the range of possible paths forward is wide, with the best- and worst-case scenarios implying sharply different outcomes, write Olivia White, Lola Woetzel, and Jan Mischke in Project Syndicate.

COVID-19. War in Europe. Inflation. Geopolitical uncertainty. Global business leaders have had a lot to deal with in the last few years, and they cannot assume the future will be any easier or more familiar. Rather, the economic, banking, and investment landscape of the next decade is likely to look materially different from the recent past, write Jan Mischke, Sven Smit, and Olivia White in Fortune.

When assessing human progress, granularity matters. What we see the closer we get to ground truth is often quite different from the picture painted at a national or subcontinental level, write Chris Bradley and Gautam Kumra in The Edge.

The materials, innovation, and capital needed to limit global warming are not equally distributed around the world. Ensuring that all economies can achieve the transition to net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions and meet their climate goals will require scaling up cross-border flows of goods, services, financing, and intangibles, write Olivia White and Mekala Krishnan in Project Syndicate.

New McKinsey Global Institute analysis finds a more nuanced reality. The world remains deeply interconnected, and flows have proved remarkably resilient during the most recent turbulence. Furthermore, no region is self-sufficient. The challenge, therefore, is to harness the benefits of interconnection while managing the risks and downsides of dependency - particularly where products are concentrated in their places of origin, writes Jeongmin Seong in The Economic Times.

Globalization is not in retreat, despite claims to the contrary. Trade flows linked to knowledge and know-how, including data, intellectual property, services, and talent, have replaced manufactured goods, resources, and capital as the primary drivers of interconnection, and firms of all sizes should be able to benefit, write Olivia White and Lola Woetzel in Project Syndicate.

Since 2005, productivity growth has been lackluster, averaging 1.4% a year, compared to the post-World War II average of 2.2%. That is a problem. Increasing productivity–economic output per unit of input–maintains U.S. competitiveness and improves our quality of life. It is also essential to meet challenges like inflation, debt loads, entitlements, and the energy transition, write Asutosh Padhi and Olivia White in Fortune.

A new report from McKinsey Global Institute finds that U.S. productivity growth has slowed in the last 15 years to 1.4% annual growth (as compared to long-term rates of 2.2% since 1948). It also found striking variations in productivity among leading and lagging firms within each sector — a gap that is only widening, write Charles Atkins, Austosh Padhi, and Olivia White in Harvard Business Review. 

Over the last three years, companies have faced a series of challenges and crises, from a global pandemic and supply challenges to inflation and rapidly rising food and energy costs. As companies determine the best strategy for the future and how to adjust operations, understanding what places have grown or shrunk at a more granular level is more important than ever. Having a micro, or pixelated perspective on economic development around the world can help a company see where growth is occurring, identify new talent and consumers, and more accurately target investments. In short, the microregional perspective can inform strategy, propel growth, and increase profits, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

The pandemic, Ukraine, geopolitical stress, climate change, and macroeconomic uncertainty: These are turbulent times. No wonder business leaders and policymakers are re-examining everything from their supply chains to their trading patterns. The overarching question, as we see it, is what this means for globalization, write Bob Sternfels and Olivia White in Fortune.

While some believe that economic growth is incompatible with fighting climate change, only growing economies can produce the financial resources needed to make the transition to a net-zero economy. Accelerating global growth could bring lower-income households into the middle class and build infrastructure to reduce emissions, write Sven Smit, Anu Madgavkar, and Kevin Russell in Project Syndicate.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted – and even reversed – progress on improving living standards globally, but it did not extinguish the potential for further gains. With a more granular understanding of how past progress unfolded, we can put ourselves on a path toward fulfilling that potential – and even chart a more efficient course, write Chris Bradley and Marc Canal Noguer in Project Syndicate.

From Russia’s war on Ukraine to the Sino-American rivalry, the world order is increasingly contested, and when value chains are global, a single disruption can reverberate across the planet. But retreating from interconnectedness is both unworkable and unnecessary, write Olivia White and Lola Woetzel in Project Syndicate.

Talk about hitting the nail on the head: Collins Dictionary declared “permacrisis” its word of the year for 2022. What better encapsulates what we’ve all been living through than a term for “an extended period of instability and insecurity”? The McKinsey Global Institute recently released a fascinating analysis that offers a way to think about what is unfolding today and what may come out of it, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

SIGNIFICANT disruption to global supply chains in the most intense periods of the Covid-19 pandemic, and in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has prompted speculation that economies and companies could choose to deglobalise and decouple. Some strategic repositioning may well occur, but overall, global connections are not retreating but evolving, write Jeongmin Seong and Gautam Kumra in The Business Times.

A large and growing slice of the American workforce has no employer-provided health care or 401(k)s to build retirement savings, and they have to pay twice as much into Social Security as their peers. These individuals don’t get paid time off and must cover their own business expenses, and their earnings can be subject to unpredictable swings. But here’s the kicker: It turns out that this group is more optimistic than the rest of the US workforce, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

Years of remarkable progress in health, wealth, education, and the deepening of global interconnections have made people much better off overall. But the world has entered a new period of turbulence, and it remains to be seen what new rules and institutions will emerge from it, writes Chris Bradley in Project Syndicate.

We live in a world of instant streaming, overnight delivery, and smart devices. Technological advances have transformed almost every aspect of our lives, and even more so since the COVID-19 crisis. But paradoxically, one big element of the economy isn’t responding: productivity growth, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

It may seem counterintuitive for employers to double down on learning and development at a time when workers are becoming more mobile. But recent research across four leading economies suggests that such a strategy is more important than ever, write Christopher Pissarides and Anu Madgavkar in Project Syndicate.

New research from McKinsey that studied the career progression of some 4 million workers over a decade revealed the factors behind dramatic surges in lifetime earnings, write Sven Smit, Anu Madgavkar, and Bill Schaninger in Fast Company.

In such a tight hiring market, companies need more emphasis on retaining and developing their own employees, writes McKinsey Global Institute director Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.

People grow and add skills by varying their work experience—in other words, by moving, write Bill Schaninger and Anu Madgavkar in Fortune.

The McKinsey Global Institute used big data to examine 4 million real-world job histories and found that meaningful work experience is critical to human capital development. Effective organizations who prioritize learning and development can have a major impact on whether or not an individual reaches their potential, write Anu Madgavkar and Sven Smit in World Economic Forum Agenda.

 

European firms currently lack the scale and agility they need to compete with their US and Chinese counterparts. Wise policymakers would harness the cooperative momentum generated by the Ukraine war and embrace the “transversal technologies” that are crucial to the region’s future prosperity, write Jan Mischke and Jurica Novak in Project Syndicate.

While the state of national economies is usually measured by GDP or other measures of economic flows like consumption and investment, this research at the McKinsey Global Institute examines macroeconomic vitals from a different perspective: the collective balance sheets of 10 countries (Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, the UK and the U.S.) that generate more than 60 percent of global income. And this view highlights a striking dual paradox that will be of increasing concern over the next decade. First, traditional capital and real estate continue to comprise most of net worth, even as national economies increasingly depend on intangible capital for productivity growth. Second, balance sheets have expanded rapidly over the past two decades, even as economic growth has ratcheted down, write Sven Smit, Lola Woetzel, Anu Madgavkar, and Jan Mischke in Milken Institute Review. 

Companies that prepare for the opportunities and risks that India’s net-zero transition entails will raise their odds of thriving, write Rajat Gupta and Suvojoy Sengupta in Mint.

Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 – and thus limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – implies profound economic and societal shifts. A successful transition would have six key characteristics, writes Mekala Krishnan in Project Syndicate.

Solving a fundamentally global, borderless problem requires an unprecedented level of global collaboration, write Hamid Samandari and Mekala Krishnan in Fortune.

More investment in intangible assets will help recalibrate the region's economy, write Lola Woetzel and Joydeep Sengupta in Nikkei Asia. 

In economic and social terms, Gautam Kumra and Lola Woetzel explain how achieving this goal will impact everyone globally in The Business Times.