In the U.S., there will be more jobs than today, and most of them will be better paid. That’s the great news. The challenge is how do we ensure that workers will have the right skills for the jobs of tomorrow? And how do we do that at a sustained scale that we have not seen before in the U.S.? A number of skills gaps and credential requirements create barriers that will prevent workers from making the necessary occupational transitions. Unless governments, companies, and educators take steps to help workers overcome those barriers, economic growth and individual workers will suffer.
A new McKinsey Global Institute report, Workforce in motion: Skills and pathways to future jobs in the United States, finds that AI and automation could eliminate about 36 million jobs by 2035, while growth in the AI value chain and the broader economy creates more than 40 million new jobs. Most of that churn is likely to take place within the same occupation, but in the base case, roughly 11 million American workers may need to leave a declining occupation and take on an entirely different one.
Some of those workers will have access to jobs in the same occupational group. But the majority, an average of 770,000 annually, will need to cross occupational lines between now and 2035—or 3.6 times the historical average of 215,000. Only COVID-19 resulted in a similarly high level of job changes but only for two to three years.
Roughly 60 percent of growing jobs fall primarily into the top two wage quintiles. Jobs in healthcare support, healthcare, construction, and management will account for most of the jobs increase.
But better jobs require higher skills and typically higher levels of education. The reallocation shifts the labor market upmarket with new jobs requiring different skills, training, and credentials. Employers today list 68 distinct skills in postings for growing occupations, compared to asking for 47 for declining ones. Roughly 84 percent of growing occupations require a postsecondary education, compared to just 45 percent of declining jobs.
While nearly every transitioning worker has at least one pathway to growing work, only about one in seven has a direct pathway requiring minimal retraining and no loss of income. Four in ten face a more winding pathway, and almost half face one that is effectively unpaved.
Required credentials are the largest single barrier. Some 85 percent of growing job categories require a credential or certification. About 38 percent of the requirements are mandated by law, concentrated where safety, liability, and public trust are central—healthcare, transportation, education, engineering, and public safety. Among growing healthcare professions, 96 percent require a license. But another 47 percent of growing jobs carry no legal requirement whatsoever; employers simply prefer a degree, a certification, or a familiar prior job title. That category is a company choice that deserves reconsideration. Only 15 percent require no credential at all.
Time is another barrier. For a worker with a high school diploma, a legally required credential takes about 32 months on average, while someone with a bachelor’s degree will invest 17 months. The averages hide distinct differences between jobs. Healthcare support roles average under six months of training, but it takes many years to gain the skills and training needed for the education, engineering, and healthcare professions.
Money is a barrier invisible in any wage comparison. A worker with few savings and caregiving obligations may rationally decline a pathway that requires months of reduced income.
Other constraints intensify these barriers. Seventy-six percent of growing jobs cannot be done remotely, so a job change that looks feasible in one state is unavailable to a worker with the required skills and credentials in another state. Being geographically close, as well as transportation and logistics matter.
Finally, barriers are unevenly distributed. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times likelier to need a wholly new occupation, and only 10 percent of those in the bottom wage quintile have a direct pathway, compared to nearly 40 percent in the top.
These barriers require institutional intervention for a stronger job market and better economic growth over the next decade. Companies hiring workers can screen for demonstrated skills rather than titles, rethink degree and credential requirements when no law demands one, build apprenticeships and training opportunities, and track redeployment and internal fill rates. Governments can make credentials modular so that short qualifications build on each other, formally recognize prior learning, underwrite training and the income it displaces, tie money to employment outcomes, and ease the housing, transport, and childcare constraints that often close off viable moves. Educators can design programs that develop the skills that growing occupations require and publish their placement and wage outcomes.
Workers need to develop curiosity, adaptability, and resilience—demand for AI fluency in job postings is up elevenfold since 2022. But no individual can shorten a licensing timeline or self-fund a year of forgone wages. The workforce restructuring has started. Clearing pathways and ensuring workers affected by AI, automation, and other forces can find good jobs in new occupations is an economic imperative.
This article originally appeared in Forbes.