New geopolitical and planetary crises seem to dominate news headlines, deepening a sense of pessimism about the state of humanity. But looking back over the past century, a very different picture – one of unprecedented human progress – emerges.
A hundred years ago, life was fragile and insecure. The average person could expect to live between 30-40, and one in three children died before the age of five. Some 60% of the global population lived in extreme poverty, while only about one-third could read or write.
Now, global average life expectancy is 73, less than 10% of the global population lives in extreme poverty, and nearly 90% are literate. Living standards were transformed. After stagnating for centuries, per capita incomes doubled in the 19th century and surged sixfold between 1925 and now.
But what if progress is measured by the ability to live securely and with options, as opposed to just subsisting? In that case, there is much more to be done, as about 4.7 billion people still live below what we call the empowerment line.
In short, the world has made amazing progress, and we need much more of it.
With that in mind, our new book, A Century of Plenty: A Story of Progress for Generations to Come, presents an ambitious vision: By 2100, the world’s poorest can live as well as people in Switzerland do today. With its high incomes, longer lifespans, quality education, and robust social support, Switzerland is perhaps the best example of a country with “plenty.”
Making Switzerland the floor may sound radical. It isn’t. Global GDP per capita would have to increase by 2.6% annually – only slightly faster than the 2.3% annual average growth over the past quarter-century. In the world of plenty we envision, the global population has reached 12 billion, as some countries recover from extremely low fertility, and the global economy is 8.5 times bigger than today’s.
As AI and other frontier technologies advance, and more people are educated, this outcome is eminently feasible. But progress requires more than just innovation. Much of the anticipated growth would come from emerging economies, which can go a long way toward catching up with advanced economies by investing in existing technology and infrastructure.
Beyond strategies to boost productivity, achieving the next economic leap requires putting in place certain “nuts and bolts,” with energy being the most essential. To increase economic opportunity, we need a decarbonized energy system that is significantly larger. According to our calculations, global energy generation would need to be 2-3 times the current level, while clean electricity production would need to be around 30 times higher than today.
This can be done by building and deploying existing technologies at scale while continuing to innovate. Of course, such an approach would be challenging. But it is not unheard of. China has increased its combined solar, wind, and nuclear output tenfold in the last decade, much faster than the pace required for a world of plenty. In the United States, shale barely registered as an energy source two decades ago; now it contributes more to the country’s energy production than conventional oil and gas combined. Going back further, France built a nuclear-powered electricity system in the 1970s.
Another important fuel – albeit for people – is food. We show that a population as large as 12 billion can eat a protein-rich diet without using more land, and with far more modest increases in agricultural yields than have been achieved since the 1960s.
Nor is a century of plenty limited by geology. The Earth has enough natural resources to support this expansion. For example, we estimate that delivering a plentiful 2100 would require 134 billion tons of steel. Known sources of usable iron content (steel’s main input) total 230 billion tons today, with 88 billion – already two-thirds of the required amount – qualifying as economically extractable reserves. And these reserves have grown by about 1% per year over 30 years, more than making up the difference.
The same is true for other main materials: None would need to exceed historical growth rates to make our vision a reality. And our estimates are conservative – it is highly likely that new materials and techniques will be developed during this period.
Some argue that the planet cannot bear the externalities created by such growth, not least the increase in greenhouse-gas emissions. We take a different view. A world of plenty is better positioned to tackle climate change and other environmental issues like air pollution because growth spurs investment in the clean-energy transition (such as grids, renewables, and batteries), adaptation tools (like air conditioning and irrigation systems), and research and development. So long as the fruits of growth are used to accelerate the process of decoupling emissions from GDP, like most of the world is already doing, global warming could be limited to about 2° Celsius while improving living standards for millions of people.
In sum, there are no insurmountable physical barriers to universal prosperity. We are not saying, however, that our vision of plenty will be easy to deliver. The limitations may not be physical, but they could be social and political: in hearts and minds. Most notably, many people in advanced economies – which by definition have reaped the benefits of growth – no longer believe in material progress. In a recent survey, only 9% of respondents in France said that the next generation will be better off, and no advanced economy, other than Singapore, scored above 30%.
This highlights the need for a new narrative that discards zero-sum thinking. Growth is the solution, not the problem. Over the past century, it has delivered higher incomes and longer lives, while empowering millions of people. Looking ahead, we cannot allow one person’s gain to become another’s loss. Instead, we must dare to imagine a world where everyone thrives. Such a world is within reach, so long as the focus remains on economic progress.
This article originally appeared in Project Syndicate.