McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®

Our forward-thinking and integrated perspective—covering automotive, cities, freight, infrastructure, last-mile delivery, utilities, and others—helps industry leaders and policy makers lead change and navigate an increasingly autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared future.

Our research areas

Integrated Mobility
A number of social, economic, and technological trends are poised to disrupt urban mobility. By 2030, mobility innovation could radically transform everything from power systems to the use of public space, while simultaneously introducing a new city dynamism. In 50 metropolitan areas, home to 500 million people, integrated mobility systems could produce benefits, including improved safety and reduced pollution, worth up to $600 billion.

Autonomous Driving
Disruptive autonomous-driving technologies will transform the concept of mobility, increase safety, and require business-model changes in many industries as profit pools shift.

Connectivity
As vehicles become increasingly connected, data will unlock new benefits and challenges for customers, automakers, high-tech giants, and a broad array of new companies active in the value chain.

Electrification
Electrified vehicles are nearing an inflection point due to changing consumer attitudes, battery economics, infrastructure, and regulatory policies, creating opportunities for the auto industry.

Shared Mobility
E-hailing, car sharing, and further modes of diverse mobility continue rapid expansion as cost-effective, convenient, and less stressful alternates to vehicle ownership.

70% of the robotaxi market

will be addressable solely with L4 autonomous technology by 2030

40% of consumers

would change car brands for more connectivity

30-40% of car buyers

in the US and EU considered an electrified vehicle purchase in 2016

<1% of total global miles driven

originates from e-hailing trips

Our Capabilities

We aim to help all stakeholders in the mobility ecosystem navigate the future by providing independent and integrated evidence about possible future mobility scenarios.

As we move through a second inflection point in mobility, our distinctive models based on proprietary data help stakeholders across the mobility space make strategic choices under uncertainty, accelerate the transition toward sustainable mobility, and transform organizations and mobility ecosystems.

We deliver insights and perspectives through the following core assets:

Mobility Market Model

City-level modal mix projections covering ten modes of transport—including private, public, and shared—with details on personal and vehicle miles traveled, light-vehicle sales, production, vehicle parc, and demand for shared modes.

Mobility Electrification Model

Global powertrain and electrification powertrain splits, including detailed total cost of ownership calculations, consumer preferences, and regulatory perspectives for passenger vehicles, buses, trucks, and two-wheelers.

Mobility Financials Model

Granular view of all mobility and automotive-related value and profit pools with detailed value chain breakdowns by region.

Mobility Components Model

Market perspective for numerous vehicle components, split along regions and powertrain types, based on price development, take-rates, and technology trends.

Video

About the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®

The McKinsey Center for Future Mobility was created to help business leaders and policy makers come to terms with a future that is increasingly autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared. Based in four global hubs (Beijing, Detroit, Munich, and Silicon Valley), our forward thinking and integrated perspective, industry expertise, proprietary research, and global convening power gives us a unique combination of assets to help clients navigate the mobility revolution.

Understanding mobility’s second great inflection point

Senior partner Asutosh Padhi discusses the technological breakthroughs changing the mobility ecosystem and lays out what the shifts mean for automotive and other industries.

How will mobility look like in 2040

Shifting consumer demands, breakthrough technologies and new regulations - mobility in 2040 will look dramatically different than today. Our four scenarios can help you navigate this disruption.

Featured Insights

Report

The race to win: How automakers can succeed in a post-pandemic China

– A new McKinsey survey shows that Chinese consumers have drastically changed their vehicle preferences and car-buying habits in the wake of COVID-19. How can OEMs adjust?
Article

Shared mobility: Where it stands, where it’s headed
– Having weathered a pandemic, regulatory whiplash, and a host of other hurdles, shared mobility endures. Here’s where things... stand today.
Article

How hydrogen combustion engines can contribute to zero emissions
– Hydrogen combustion engines can leverage existing technologies and provide a zero-emissions option for specific use cases while... supporting the growth of hydrogen infrastructure.
Article

Making infrastructure tech a reality in your portfolio
– ‘Infratech’ is now a viable asset class and an increasingly essential component of infrastructure investments and... operations. Investors and their operating companies need to prepare.
Blog Post

Looking to the skies: Funding for future air mobility takes off
– Amid emerging technologies and increasing concerns about sustainability, innovative options for air mobility are gaining traction—and... funding.
Article

EV fast charging: How to build and sustain competitive differentiation
– As millions of electric vehicles hit the roads in the next decade, the need for fast charging will grow rapidly. To win in this... already competitive market, providers must differentiate themselves.
Article

The impact of electromobility on the German electric grid
– Estimates indicate that eight million electric vehicles could be on the roads in Germany by 2030. Investing in fast-charging stations... and managed charging will be key to upgrading infrastructure.
See all insights

Our Experts

Philipp Kampshoff
Senior Partner, Houston
Leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility in the Americas
Timo Möller
Partner, Cologne
Leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®, focusing on disruptive trends such as vehicle connectivity, autonomous driving,...
Ting Wu
Partner, Shenzhen
Serves global automotive and components companies with extensive experience serving global automakers and suppliers
Russell Hensley
Partner, Detroit
Co-leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility in the Americas
Kersten Heineke
Partner, Frankfurt
Leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility in Europe, focusing on connected cars, autonomous driving, and shared mobility,...
Eric Hannon
Partner, Frankfurt
Serves global automotive and mobility companies as a core leader of our Automotive & Assembly Practice and leads our global urban-mobility...
More people

McKinsey Quarterly

Reimagining Mobility
How we experience mobility is poised to change profoundly—a “horses to cars”-sized shift that will reverberate across business and society for generations. Some implications are predictable, others unknowable. Yet one thing is certain: mobility’s future will be shaped by developments along four dimensions: cars, consumers, cities, and competition.

Related resource

Elevating the ridesharing experience

McKinsey & Company and LUNAR are on a journey to gain insights and provide our perspective on the rapidly evolving rideshare landscape. This effort brings together industry and market analytics, deep consumer insights, and design to explore growth opportunities.
Learn more

Related practices

We collaborate with our colleagues in other industry and functional practices. In particular, we work closely with McKinsey experts in the following areas:

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