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McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
McKinsey Center for Future Mobility

McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®

Our forward-thinking and integrated perspective—covering automotive, cities, freight, infrastructure, last-mile delivery, utilities, and others—helps industry leaders and policy makers lead change and navigate an increasingly autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared future.

Our research areas

Integrated Mobility
A number of social, economic, and technological trends are poised to disrupt urban mobility. By 2030, mobility innovation could radically transform everything from power systems to the use of public space, while simultaneously introducing a new city dynamism. In 50 metropolitan areas, home to 500 million people, integrated mobility systems could produce benefits, including improved safety and reduced pollution, worth up to $600 billion.

Autonomous Driving
Disruptive autonomous-driving technologies will transform the concept of mobility, increase safety, and require business-model changes in many industries as profit pools shift.

Connectivity
As vehicles become increasingly connected, data will unlock new benefits and challenges for customers, automakers, high-tech giants, and a broad array of new companies active in the value chain.

Electrification
Electrified vehicles are nearing an inflection point due to changing consumer attitudes, battery economics, infrastructure, and regulatory policies, creating opportunities for the auto industry.

Shared Mobility
E-hailing, car sharing, and further modes of diverse mobility continue rapid expansion as cost-effective, convenient, and less stressful alternates to vehicle ownership.

70% of the robotaxi market

will be addressable solely with L4 autonomous technology by 2030

40% of consumers

would change car brands for more connectivity

30-40% of car buyers

in the US and EU considered an electrified vehicle purchase in 2016

<1% of total global miles driven

originates from e-hailing trips

Our Capabilities

We aim to help all stakeholders in the mobility ecosystem navigate the future by providing independent and integrated evidence about possible future mobility scenarios.

As we move through a second inflection point in mobility, our distinctive models based on proprietary data help stakeholders across the mobility space make strategic choices under uncertainty, accelerate the transition toward sustainable mobility, and transform organizations and mobility ecosystems.

We deliver insights and perspectives through the following core assets:

Mobility Market Model

City-level modal mix projections covering ten modes of transport—including private, public, and shared—with details on personal and vehicle miles traveled, light-vehicle sales, production, vehicle parc, and demand for shared modes.

Mobility Electrification Model

Global powertrain and electrification powertrain splits, including detailed total cost of ownership calculations, consumer preferences, and regulatory perspectives for passenger vehicles, buses, trucks, and two-wheelers.

Mobility Financials Model

Granular view of all mobility and automotive-related value and profit pools with detailed value chain breakdowns by region.

Mobility Components Model

Market perspective for numerous vehicle components, split along regions and powertrain types, based on price development, take-rates, and technology trends.

Video

About the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®

The McKinsey Center for Future Mobility was created to help business leaders and policy makers come to terms with a future that is increasingly autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared. Based in four global hubs (Beijing, Detroit, Munich, and Silicon Valley), our forward thinking and integrated perspective, industry expertise, proprietary research, and global convening power gives us a unique combination of assets to help clients navigate the mobility revolution.

Understanding mobility’s second great inflection point

Senior partner Asutosh Padhi discusses the technological breakthroughs changing the mobility ecosystem and lays out what the shifts mean for automotive and other industries.

How will mobility look like in 2040

Shifting consumer demands, breakthrough technologies and new regulations - mobility in 2040 will look dramatically different than today. Our four scenarios can help you navigate this disruption.

Featured Insights

Article

EV fast charging: How to build and sustain competitive differentiation

– As millions of electric vehicles hit the roads in the next decade, the need for fast charging will grow rapidly. To win in this already competitive market, providers must differentiate themselves.
Article

Winning the Chinese BEV market: How leading international OEMs compete
– Keeping up with the ever-changing battery-electric-vehicle industry is a high-stakes challenge. Our benchmark of two international... and ten local models reveals how OEMs can win over Chinese consumers.
Article - McKinsey Quarterly

The irresistible momentum behind clean, electric, connected mobility: Four key trends
– Mobility’s future is visible in the increasing support of capital markets, the demands of Chinese consumers, the effort to slow... climate change, and the new skills automakers will need to deal with these shifts.
Article

Mobility’s future: An investment reality check
– In this time of crisis, the auto industry can’t afford to ignore crucial technology trends. Our analysis of the mobility-investment... landscape helps company leaders make smart decisions now.
Article

Building better batteries: Insights on chemistry and design from China
– A detailed benchmark analysis of the batteries of Chinese battery-electric vehicles reveals how differences in battery-cell and... battery-pack design affect performance.
Article

Reimagining the auto industry’s future: It’s now or never
– Disruptions in the auto industry will result in billions lost, with recovery years away. Yet companies that reimagine their operations... will perform best in the next normal. 
Article

The Indian automotive industry: From resilience to resurgence?
– Indian automotive sales have shown resilience during the pandemic but have not returned to their pre-COVID-19 strength. What will... it take to go from resilience to resurgence?
Article

Why most eTrucks will choose overnight charging
– Electric trucks are coming, but fleets need to find the best charging strategies to keep them going.
Article

Global emergence of electrified small-format mobility
– Electric two- and three-wheel vehicles are gaining in popularity. What does the future hold for the market?
Interview

The future of car buying: Perspectives from Saudi Arabia
– Two longtime industry executives predict ‘hyper-personalization’ and more dealer partnerships.
Video

Car buying in 2030
– In this video, three McKinsey partners describe how the experience of purchasing an automobile might change in the coming decade—and... how car dealerships should evolve.
Article

Five COVID-19 aftershocks reshaping mobility’s future
– The pandemic will change the face of mobility, both now and when the crisis ends.
Article

What the future of mobility holds for chemical players
– Chemical companies will be affected by disruption in the automotive industry. Those expecting to flourish in the next normal must... meet the changes head-on and respond to three key trends.
Article

Electric mobility after the crisis: Why an auto slowdown won’t hurt EV demand
– Global auto sales plunged during the COVID-19 crisis, but electric mobility has remained remarkably resilient in some countries.... Here’s what’s ahead for the electric-vehicle market.
Article

Software ‘should costing’: A new procurement tool for automotive companies
– Analytics-based cost algorithms and agile-inspired methods can help OEMs reduce automotive software costs by up to 30 percent... and improve delivery timelines.
See all insights

Our Experts

Philipp Kampshoff
Partner, Houston
Leads the supplier sector of our Automotive & Assembly Practice in the Americas; focuses on large-scale growth and profitability...
Timo Möller
Partner, Cologne
Leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®, focusing on disruptive trends such as vehicle connectivity, autonomous driving,...
Ting Wu
Partner, Shenzhen
Serves global automotive and components companies with extensive experience serving global automakers and suppliers
Russell Hensley
Partner, Detroit
Serves global automotive companies on strategic and operational transformations and co-leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®
Kersten Heineke
Partner, Frankfurt
Leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility in Europe, focusing on connected cars, autonomous driving, and shared mobility,...
Eric Hannon
Partner, Frankfurt
Serves global automotive and mobility companies as a core leader of our Automotive & Assembly Practice and leads our global urban-mobility...
More people

McKinsey Quarterly

Reimagining Mobility
How we experience mobility is poised to change profoundly—a “horses to cars”-sized shift that will reverberate across business and society for generations. Some implications are predictable, others unknowable. Yet one thing is certain: mobility’s future will be shaped by developments along four dimensions: cars, consumers, cities, and competition.

Related resource

Elevating the ridesharing experience

McKinsey & Company and LUNAR are on a journey to gain insights and provide our perspective on the rapidly evolving rideshare landscape. This effort brings together industry and market analytics, deep consumer insights, and design to explore growth opportunities.
Learn more

Related practices

We collaborate with our colleagues in other industry and functional practices. In particular, we work closely with McKinsey experts in the following areas:

Connect with the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®

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