MGI Research

At 250, sustaining America’s competitive edge

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At a glance

  • At 250 years old, the United States is the world’s most competitive economy. It generates 26 percent of global GDP and is home to 59 of the world’s top 100 firms. In the past several years, accelerating US productivity growth and announced foreign direct investment inflows have sharpened its edge over other advanced economies.
  • It’s a new world. AI is unveiling an ever-expanding realm of possibilities, just as geopolitical contention is growing and fertility rates are falling. The United States is a global technology leader today and spends 27 percent of the world’s research and development dollars—but will that be enough to sustain its current 59 percent share of top firms?
  • Some US historical competitive advantages are becoming liabilities. Current generations owe it to future ones to address deteriorating fiscal health, eroding infrastructure, declining educational achievement, fading manufacturing know-how, and sustained disparities in income and wealth.
  • Safeguarding an economic edge requires evolving, as America has before. The United States has repeatedly adapted its economic model to meet, and then shape, new technologies and geopolitical realities. Since the country’s founding, American competitiveness has shifted but sustained across four historical chapters: agricultural, industrial, scientific, and digital. A new one is coming.
  • A culture of innovation and natural abundance are abiding strengths on which to draw. By our count, Americans created or supported 76 of the 100 most important inventions since 1776, from steamboats to smartphones, from the electrical grid to generative AI. Over its history, the country has profited from twice as much agricultural land per capita as any other large economy, and it was largely self-sufficient in energy for 200 years, including since 2019. These are just a few examples of its resource wealth.
  • We the people will write the coming chapter. Collective effort from American individuals, business, and government can ensure energy abundance, an infrastructure backbone, education that builds minds and skills to match new technology, and the financial strength to pay for it all. The prize is continued growth, national economic security, and economic opportunity for everyone.
The United States leads in competitiveness today. Can it stay ahead?
A row of five squares compares the United States’ share of global totals. The US has 4% of global population but a much larger share of global economic and innovation measures: 26% of GDP, 59% of the top 100 firms by market capitalization, 51% of notable AI models, and 27% of global R&D spending. The main message is that the US is “punching above its weight” in output, corporate value, and innovation, and sustaining the lead depends on continued technological depth and investment.
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Introduction

It began with a startling act of rebellion. In July 1776, delegates from 13 British colonies declared their independence, dissolved their bonds with England, threatened war, and pledged “our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor” to each other and their newly united states.

One delegate described the mood in the room as a “pensive, awful silence.” The new nation’s leaders harbored grave reservations. All were acutely aware of the potential consequences of their choice: ruin, prison, war, and death. At a remove of 250 years, it’s hard to conceive of the courage that the founders summoned as each walked to the desk and picked up the quill.

Their courage paid off. Over two and a half centuries, the country has transformed from a collection of agrarian colonies into the world’s largest and most influential economy. American firms shape global markets, accounting for more than half of the world’s market capitalization. US innovation ecosystems define the frontier of science and technology; 76 of the 100 most influential innovations of the past 250 years came at least in part from American minds and hands. Average living standards have exceeded those of any other large nation for the past 100 years, even as affordability remains an issue. By these and many other measures, the United States today is the most economically competitive country in the world.

America’s enduring economic edge was never inevitable. The United States, like most every nation, has been shaped by extraordinary difficulties—wars, recessions, depressions, and pandemics. But America has consistently come through in ways that others have not. In large measure, that’s thanks to two foundations of American economic competitiveness that it has relied on again and again: a culture of ambition and individual achievement, and a bountiful natural endowment.

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Through every chapter of the past 250 years, the United States has harnessed these foundations, not in a fixed economic model but through flexible institutions that have made the next adaptation possible. And it has done so collectively. “We the people”—farmers in the fields, tinkerers in backyard workshops, teachers in schoolrooms, machinists at forges, seamstresses at machines, developers pulling all-nighters to invent world-changing code—have built an American economic powerhouse.

Today, the United States possesses immense economic strengths anchored in its twin foundations. But if history is any guide, these will carry the country only so far. The challenges are clear and present: a mounting national debt, eroding infrastructure, slipping test scores, fading manufacturing know-how, and sustained disparities in income and wealth. The question America confronts today is not how to celebrate its past but whether it can once again find a new alignment of its resources, ambitions, institutions, and policies to secure competitiveness in the next chapter of its story.

Much is at stake: individuals’ access to productive employment and affordable essential goods, businesses’ ability to scale and take risks, and government’s capacity to raise funds and ensure national economic security.

This report examines the arc of US competitiveness, past, present, and future. America’s history of reinvention holds compelling lessons as the nation confronts a future of immense if uncertain opportunity.

Chapter 1.

At 250, the United States is the world’s most competitive economy

Over the course of 250 years, the United States has transformed from a small agrarian economy to the world’s leading economic power, a position it has enjoyed for more than a century. Today it has the highest income of any populous country (Exhibit 1).1

American firms have undergone a spectacular evolution, from small textile mills in New England to world-leading industrial powerhouses to platform technology companies that shape everyday lives around the globe. American innovation, once a matter of adapting tools developed elsewhere to local settings, has gone on to set the global technology frontier. Over time, rising productivity has steadily lifted household living standards and created economic opportunities for millions.

By 1900, the United States had the world's leading economy by size and individual incomes.
Two line charts track long-run economic leadership. Real GDP (1820–2022) shows the US overtaking the UK around the mid‑1800s and expanding far beyond other large economies in the 20th century, with China rising rapidly in recent decades. GDP per capita (PPP, 1800–2022) shows the US moving from below the UK in 1800 to becoming the richest large country around 1900 and remaining at the top thereafter. Overall takeaway: US economic leadership has deep historical roots, even as global competition has intensified recently.

The combination of leadership in global markets, powerful innovation ecosystems, and individual economic opportunity and prosperity can be summed up in one phrase: economic competitiveness (see sidebar ”Defining—and measuring—competitiveness”).

Today, the United States has 4 percent of the global population but generates 26 percent of GDP, and it accounts for more than 50 percent of market capitalization (Exhibit 2). It has exceeded many of its rich-country peers in labor productivity and growth, especially in recent years, when productivity has accelerated at levels unseen in other major economies.2 Leadership in technology also continues to underpin US competitiveness: The country is home to a plurality of the world’s top-cited scientists and has the most notable AI models.3 Announced annual inflows of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) have roughly doubled from the prepandemic period.4 And today, as it has since roughly 1900, GDP per capita exceeds that of other major economies.

The United States remains the world's largest economy, is home to the world's most valuable companies, and leads in technology and innovation.
A heatmap table compares competitiveness indicators across the US, G7 peers, and Mainland China. The US ranks at or near the top on measures tied to globally leading firms and innovation—such as GDP size, labor productivity, shares of the top 100 firms, venture capital, notable AI models, and highly cited scientists. Mainland China stands out on manufacturing output and exports, while household outcomes (for example GDP per capita, inequality, and education measures) are more mixed across countries. The main message: US strengths are concentrated in high-value firms and innovation, but manufacturing/trade leadership and broad household outcomes are not uniformly dominant.

These are cause for celebration. But there are also reasons for reflection. The United States is no longer the global leader in manufacturing and trade. Its lead on technology is narrowing amid greater competition with China.5 And the picture of household well-being is mixed: Although aggregate measures show high levels of income, many households feel they can no longer keep up economically, contributing to low levels of public trust.6

Here we examine the hallmarks of economic competitiveness: globally leading firms, leadership in technology and innovation, and economic opportunity.

US firms lead global markets

American companies make up more than half of the top 100 firms globally by market capitalization and revenue (Exhibit 3). From start-ups to large corporations, they attract an outsize share of capital from global markets. US firms hold more than half of global public equity funding and receive more than 50 percent of global venture capital (VC) investment.7 These valuations are supported, at least in part, by the fact that US firms have the highest levels of productivity, and rates of productivity growth, among firms in G20 economies.8 Large US firms excel on a range of other corporate performance metrics; compared to European peers, they have 30 percent higher returns on invested capital and 50 percent faster top-line growth.9

US firms make up the majority of the world's largest companies.
A treemap shows the top 100 public companies by market capitalization (Dec 31, 2025), with box size proportional to company value and colors grouped by region. The United States accounts for 59 of the 100 companies and the vast majority of total market value (about $40.9T), with many of the largest boxes belonging to US tech and tech‑adjacent leaders (for example NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon). Europe and Mainland China have far fewer firms and much smaller combined market capitalization. Takeaway: global equity value among the very largest firms is highly concentrated in US companies.

To be sure, a sizable share of US market capitalization is connected to the technology sector. Yet US firms lead across a range of sectors and are present in the upper echelons of all of them.10

US market leadership is not a recent development: The United States has been the preeminent home to the world’s top companies for more than a century, even as these companies have themselves turned over (Exhibit 4). Over the past 25 years, for example, only Microsoft has remained in the top ten global firms by market capitalization. The sectoral composition has also shifted, from industrials and energy through the 1980s to almost entirely technology today.

US firms have led global rankings for more than a century.
A timeline table lists the top 10 publicly traded firms by market capitalization at selected points (1912, 1928, 1967, 1980, 2000, and 2025). Across all snapshots, US firms occupy most of the top 10 (typically 8–9, and 8 in 2025), even as the leading sectors shift from rail and steel to autos and oil, then to modern technology. A small indicator shows that the specific firms change significantly between periods, implying high turnover within a persistent US lead. Takeaway: US corporate dominance has been durable across eras despite frequent reshuffling of individual champions.

Fundamentally, US firms’ outperformance is rooted in greater dynamism: They exhibit higher rates of labor reallocation, market entry and exit, and growth of young firms.11 That dynamism translates to higher national productivity growth (Exhibit 5).12

US firms show higher levels of dynamism and resulting productivity.
A waterfall chart compares contributions to productivity growth across large-firm samples in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom (2011–19). The US shows much higher total productivity growth (about 2.1 percentage points) than Germany (~0.2) and the UK (~0), driven by larger within‑firm improvements and stronger reallocation/exit effects (resources shifting to more productive firms and weaker firms exiting). Germany and the UK show smaller positive contributions and, in places, offsets. Main takeaway: greater business dynamism and reallocation in the US translate into faster productivity growth.

US manufacturing leadership has receded

Notably, one major sector in which the United States no longer has a leading global market share is manufacturing. China began expanding its industrial capacity in the 1980s, then ramped it up on a large scale in the 2000s, surpassing the United States in share of global manufacturing output in 2010. Today, China produces nearly half of global manufacturing output, compared to 11 percent for the United States.13

US manufacturing has also lost ground domestically as the economy has shifted toward services. Over the past 50 years, manufacturing’s share of both GDP and employment has declined from more than 20 percent to less than 10 percent today.14 This halving of manufacturing employment is equal to about 19 million jobs today. These were mostly middle-class jobs, and they have been offset by growth in high-skill jobs in the knowledge economy—for example in technology software and finance—along with lower-skill services jobs, such as home cleaning.15 Between 2000 and 2018, for example, the share of all US jobs with wages in the middle of the income distribution fell six percentage points.16

The shift to services has had additional economic implications. For one, as the United States began to import the goods it consumed, it tilted from trade surplus to trade deficit. Before 1976, the United States was a net exporter; it then became a net importer, with a trade deficit hovering around 3 percent of GDP over the past decade.17 And over time, the United States has lost some of its capacity to produce a wide range of products—from sports shoes to smartphones, dysprosium to data processors, ships to chips—presenting questions about future resiliency.18 Of course, some of these products matter more for national security and future economic competitiveness than others. Today, 40 percent of US imports, worth more than $1 trillion, are considered critical, or “central to resilient, diverse, and secure supply chains to ensure economic prosperity and national security.”19

Nevertheless, the United States remains the second-largest manufacturer and trading partner for the world, accounting for 10 percent of the world's total exports. With an output of $7.3 trillion, including in many of the same products or categories where it imports large volumes, and a workforce of almost 13 million, the United States retains a strong manufacturing base on which it might build capacity in industries that will become increasingly important in the future, including semiconductors, electrification, and next-era hardware such as robotics and autonomous systems.20

New manufacturing capacity is more than just factories. Also needed are an educated and skilled workforce that can fill shortages in fields such as engineering; a strong national balance sheet to support the needed financing; and restored investment in infrastructure, especially for energy.

US leadership in innovation and tech continues as new pressures emerge

Continued high valuations hinge on whether recent accelerations of productivity will indeed translate to higher economic (and earnings) growth over the long term.21 Higher productivity growth rates, especially in recent years, have been accompanied by higher rates of business investment and R&D spending, a positive sign for long-term growth potential. The United States leads the world on R&D spending in absolute terms, and, among major economies, as a share of GDP. Large US firms (those with at least $1 billion in annual revenue) have expanded their investment and R&D spending more rapidly than peers in other major economies. Compared to European peers, for example, they have 60 percent greater investment and 80 percent greater R&D intensity, and they have increased their investment and R&D at more than triple the European rate (Exhibit 6).22 Big tech firms drive much of this disparity.

Large US firms lead on investment, outpacing their European counterparts.
Two charts compare business investment and R&D. A line chart (2010–2022) shows combined capital expenditure and R&D spending rising faster for large US companies than for large European peers, widening the gap over time; an annotation notes that a large share of the US increase is driven by the top five companies. A bar chart details 2024 spending for the top five US firms (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple), splitting R&D and capex and showing very large multipliers since 2010 for several firms. Takeaway: the US investment/R&D advantage is expanding, largely propelled by scale and spending in big tech.

Private-sector investment in frontier technologies exceeded $1 trillion between 2021 and 2024, complemented by more than $50 billion in federal R&D funding.23 The return on investment is striking: America has outperformed in intellectual property and critical technologies. The World Intellectual Property Organization ranks the United States near the top of its Global Innovation Index.24 And compared with other major economies, the United States has more than a tenfold lead in private investment in AI. Today, the nation leads the world in the number of notable AI models, accounting for more than half of the world’s total.25

Another effect: Flourishing US knowledge ecosystems of universities and venture capital–backed start-ups attract and develop many of the greatest minds from all over the world, paving the way for ongoing success in science and technology. Today, nearly 40 percent of the world’s leading scientists, or those in the top 200,000 globally by citations, are based in the United States; no other country has more than 10 percent.26 Half of the scientific Nobel Prize winners over the past decade call America home.27

Competition in critical technologies is heating up

Past success does not guarantee future results, of course, and the US lead in technology is narrowing as China becomes more competitive. Some are now warning of a second “China shock,” should China displace American leadership in critical technologies.28

Beyond simply focusing on the gaps of the past, the United States needs to prepare for leadership in the industries that will be most important in the coming decades. Future competitiveness increasingly hinges on leadership in critical technologies, such as AI, robotics, biotechnology, quantum computing, high-performance batteries, and space-based technology.29

Economically, these technologies promise great gains for profits and wages. Geopolitically, they will be critical for protecting national security; their dual-use (military and civilian) nature means firms that develop them will be on both frontiers. In all these areas, China has made rapid progress and, in some cases, has taken the lead.

In remarkably short order, China has moved from producing low-cost goods to leading the world in complex, capital-intensive industries such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics.30 This shift is now extending beyond manufacturing into research-intensive domains once dominated by advanced economies. In biotechnology, for example, China’s output in drug discovery has grown more than tenfold since 2013.31 As of 2024, China surpassed the United States in number of clinical trials and in the count of clinical-stage molecules.32 Altogether, China’s life sciences industry is no longer confined to generic biologics or follow-on products, and it is now playing a leading role in generating sophisticated novel biologics.33

In the domain of AI, while America still has the most sophisticated AI models, China has more robots than the rest of the world combined.34 The United States has approached AI as a product unto itself, focusing on screen-based text and images. China’s approach, however, has emphasized AI’s deployment in the physical world, with intelligent machines that can see, decide, and act in real time.35 For example, Chinese firms are integrating AI into industrial robots that learn from their environments, drones that analyze visual data onboard while in flight, and autonomous vehicles whose core intelligence runs directly inside the vehicle rather than in the cloud.36

Recently, China has also established a strong presence in the realm of fundamental scientific research, advancing the frontiers of knowledge.37 From 2017 to 2023, China overtook the United States in most cited research in fields including machine learning, quantum sensors, advanced integrated circuit design and fabrication, adversarial AI, natural language processing, and high-performance computing (it already led in other fields, including electric batteries and advanced magnets).38 In some instances, China is deploying this research in practical uses with tangible output; for example, China developed the world’s first quantum satellite.39 Although most cities with dense populations of highly cited researchers are American, Beijing saw the largest absolute inflow from 2019 to 2023.40

To lead in critical technologies in the decades to come, the United States will need not only to establish an edge in today’s emerging technologies but also to make the discoveries that uncover tomorrow’s. The nation will need to support innovation ecosystems and continue to attract—and build—talent. Currently the United States graduates fewer engineers than China, both in absolute terms and relative to population size.41 Even more fundamentally, in K-12 education, the United States lags behind both its own historical record and other major economies. The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress showed a downward trajectory in math, science, and reading; only about a third of eighth-grade students were proficient.42 The Programme for International Student Assessment found that American 15-year-olds score lower on average in math than their peers in all other G7 economies.43 A robust public education system rooted in general knowledge and problem solving has been a historical strength of the United States.44 The question today is how to restore that advantage.

Average incomes are high, but prosperity is uneven

Beyond scale of firms and leadership in technology, a final component of competitiveness is economic opportunity, or the extent to which growth translates to household prosperity in the form of higher incomes. Economic opportunity drives a virtuous cycle with innovation, as the potential for high incomes (and access to resources, such as start-up capital) attracts and retains top talent. Higher broad-based wages fuel thriving consumer markets, a longtime driver of American growth. More broadly, when individuals have higher living standards, they tend to be more productive, fostering further growth.45

Today, the United States remains a place of immense economic upside, producing high average incomes; no other country of ten million or more people has a higher GDP per capita (even in purchasing power parity terms). The story is particularly pronounced for Americans in high income brackets: The paychecks of the top decile of American earners are 10 to 50 percent higher than those of peers in major European economies and Canada. Perhaps less well known, Americans in the top 40 percent of income earn more than their counterparts in major European economies, and the top 20 percent earn more than their peers in Canada.

The story changes for the bottom half of the income distribution, with American incomes lagging behind those of major European economies and Canada (Exhibit 7).46 The bottom quintile of American incomes has been gaining ground recently, but the gap remains wide. Among major economies, the United States has one of the widest gaps in income levels between the top 10 percent and bottom 50 percent.47

Top earners give the United States its income edge.
Three line charts compare pre‑tax national income per capita across countries at the 20th percentile, the median, and the 90th percentile (1980–2024), indexed so the US equals 100. At the 20th percentile, several peer countries sit above the US, suggesting stronger lower‑income outcomes elsewhere; at the median, many peers track closer to the US. At the 90th percentile, the US stands out above peers, with other advanced economies below 100. Takeaway: the US income advantage is strongest at the top of the distribution rather than broad‑based across all income groups.

This gap in income levels has grown over the past 50 years. Although all income segments have seen real growth, market incomes (wages and asset flows) have grown the most for the top two quintiles. For the bottom 60 percent of the population, more income growth has come in the form of government benefits than from wages, and the middle quintile has seen the lowest overall growth.48

This disparity in wage growth has many well-researched causes. For example, as discussed, technological change and deindustrialization have reduced the availability of middle-wage jobs while expanding demand for both highly educated and low-wage workers.49 High returns from financial assets, meanwhile, have produced very high levels of wealth for high-income households, which tend to own more assets: The top 1 percent of wealth holders have more than $16 million in wealth per capita and collectively own 5 percent of global wealth.50 Others include insufficient human-capital development for many American workers and pressures from expanding global trade.51

Sustained disparities in real wage growth and levels, wealth accumulation, and intergenerational income mobility have contributed to a growing sense among more Americans that they will not be able to reach their economic goals. As this sentiment takes hold, it raises the question of whether Americans’ support for public policies that promote innovation and dynamism will continue.

Structural shifts, including the movement from a manufacturing-based to a services-based economy, have also led to a growing geographic dispersion of productivity levels, seen strikingly across major US cities (Exhibit 8). Over the past several decades, some have seen relatively modest productivity growth, including those in the historical Rust Belt. On the other end of the spectrum, cities with deep knowledge ecosystems have seen extraordinary gains and continue to offer high income possibilities. For example, in San Jose, California, GDP per capita has more than tripled since 2000 (see sidebar “What makes some cities more productive than others?”).52 Notably, however, the cost of living also varies by city; housing in particular tends to be more expensive in cities with higher levels of productivity and income.53

The most productive US cities have pulled further ahead of the pack since 1995.
A dot-and-line chart shows real value added per employee for the 40 largest US metropolitan areas in 1995, 2019, and 2024. The average across MSAs increases only modestly, but the top metros (such as San Jose, San Francisco, and Seattle) move far to the right by 2024, indicating large productivity gains. Many other metros cluster closer together, creating a longer “tail” and greater dispersion. Takeaway: productivity growth has become increasingly concentrated in a small set of superstar cities, widening the gap with the rest.

The United States remains the most competitive economy in the world on a multitude of fronts. Getting to this point has not been a straight path. There were twists and turns, transformations and reinventions. Before contemplating the future, we first turn to what can be learned from the past 250 years, telling the story of four chapters of US competitiveness.

Chapter 2.

Looking back: Four chapters of US competitiveness

As we have seen, the United States has been the world’s largest economy for more than a century. The rise of American competitiveness did not follow a linear or clear trajectory. Growth and innovation often happened in bursts, after moments of disruption and reinvention.

Taking stock of the past 250 years of US economic history, four chapters emerge (Exhibit 9). In each, the United States led global markets in at least one major area while working on new strains of innovation that planted the seeds for the following chapter of competitiveness, first in agriculture, then in industry, science, and knowledge. Major geopolitical events roughly mark the transition between chapters—the Civil War, World War II, and the end of the Cold War. Heralding the end of each chapter, disruptions tested the country, and reinventions at these turning points ultimately strengthened the US economy and its position in the world.

Over 250 years, US economic competitiveness has played out in four chapters.
A diagram summarizes four historical phases of US competitiveness—agricultural abundance, industrial influence, scientific strength, and digital dynamism—anchored by major turning points (1776, 1865, 1941, and 1991). Each chapter lists key drivers, such as resource abundance and exports, economies of scale and industrial process innovation, public R&D institutions and new tech firms, and the rise of digital platforms, venture capital, and AI. The flow emphasizes disruption and reinvention at transitions between eras. Takeaway: US competitiveness has evolved in waves, repeatedly shifting the sources of advantage.

The United States has taken an incredible journey of economic development over the past 250 years. But it was not a straight path; it required reinvention along the way. In the next chapter, we turn to some of the constants: the foundations of competitiveness throughout US history.

Chapter 3.

The foundations of US competitiveness

While the nature of US competitiveness has shifted over time, a pair of distinctive foundations has remained constant—natural abundance, and a culture of creativity, innovation, ambition, and individual achievement; in a word, entrepreneurialism. These foundations provided the United States with unique advantages at pivotal moments in history. They also encouraged the development of strong institutions and infrastructure, which in turn have reinforced the foundations over time. That reinforcement can make it difficult to untangle cause and effect; indeed, each has shaped the other. What matters is that the United States has undoubtedly benefited from its twin foundations.

Favored by nature

In 1767, Benjamin Franklin wrote: “America, an immense Territory, favour’d by Nature with all Advantages of Climate, Soil, great navigable Rivers and Lakes, &c. must become a great Country, populous and mighty.”54 He was prescient. Over time, the country’s natural abundance and geographic positioning have provided plentiful energy and mineral resources, vast stretches of arable land, and access to internal and international trade routes. The depth and diversity of these resources set the United States apart (Exhibit 10).

The United States is abundantly endowed with a range of natural resources.
A bar chart compares the US share of global reserves or geographic endowments across categories such as arable land, ports and waterways, water resources, coal, natural gas, crude oil, and key minerals (for example lithium and copper), alongside US population share. For many resources, the US share is far larger than its population share and ranks first or second among G7 plus China. Particularly large advantages appear in arable land and major energy resources like coal and natural gas. Takeaway: a broad, diversified resource base has historically supported US economic scale and energy security.

The importance of various natural resources evolved across time. In the first historical chapter, arable land and navigable waterways were essential for agriculture and transportation of products across the country.55 An expanding frontier brought forth increasing access to minerals, energy, and land. In Europe, such expansion and ensuing infrastructure development typically required compensating landowners, which did not always occur in the United States.56 In the second chapter, fossil fuels such as coal and oil, along with minerals such as iron ore, powered industry and provided raw materials. In the third chapter, as science and technology took off, mineral access was a source of strategic advantage; deposits of copper, bauxite (aluminum-containing ore), and uranium supported electrification, aerospace, and nuclear power. In the fourth chapter, the United States was more connected than ever before through global trade, but even then, domestic minerals still provided an advantage. The internet backbone depended on fiber optics and its components (copper, gold, and aluminum) and plentiful energy.

Reliable and affordable energy has been an enduring source of strategic advantage for the United States (Exhibit 11). Access to plentiful energy has lowered input costs for businesses, improving productivity, enabling scale, and improving household well-being. At independence, Americans consumed twice as much energy per person as Britons, given abundant firewood.57 As discussed, ready access to coal ignited the American industrial revolution of the second chapter. In the third chapter, the United States became a net energy importer as its energy consumption began to outpace domestic production. The resulting exposure to the oil crises of the 1970s led to energy squeezes, contributing to a slump in productivity.58 The country regained energy independence in the fourth chapter through the shale revolution, which began in the mid-2000s. In 2019, energy imports dropped below exports for the first time in half a century.59 This ultimately helped shield the United States from major energy price fluctuations brought about by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.60 Today, 64 percent of US crude oil production and 79 percent of dry natural gas production is from shale and tight formations.61

Different fuels powered each chapter.
A stacked area chart shows US primary energy consumption per capita by source (1775–2024), dividing fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), renewables (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal), and other sources (nuclear and biomass). The mix shifts from biomass dominance in the 18th–19th centuries to coal in the early industrial era, then to oil and natural gas in the post‑war period, with nuclear and modern renewables growing more recently. An overlay and shading indicate a long period when the US was a net energy importer (mid‑1950s to 2019). Takeaway: the US energy system has repeatedly transitioned as technology and resource availability changed, and recent decades show movement back toward greater domestic balance.

Geography has also mattered. Relative geographic isolation meant the United States saw minimal damage during the World Wars. Natural deep harbors and warm-water ports on two oceans provided access to plentiful trade routes throughout history. Relatively friendly relations with neighbors also provided a layer of security.62 Periods of conflict within Europe also motivated the United States to develop its own industry; the Napoleonic Wars, for example, helped launch early US manufacturing.63

America’s ‘can-do’ spirit

From its inception to this day, the United States has had an entrepreneurial culture that has served as an ongoing foundation for competitiveness. By some accounts, entrepreneurs and inventors have been “cultural heroes” throughout US history.64 Entrepreneurship in America —often supported by wealth earned from its resources—has meant a willingness to take risks, an embrace of new ideas and people, and a drive for economic progress.65 As Alexis de Tocqueville wrote in 1840: “America is a land of wonders, in which everything is in constant motion and every change seems an improvement. No natural boundary seems to be set to the efforts of man; and in his eyes what is not yet done is only what he has not yet attempted to do.”66

The culture of entrepreneurship stems at least in part from the absence of Europe’s entrenched societal structures and systems; the United States was able to start fresh. Perceived openness and economic opportunity have attracted many of the world’s best minds over the country’s history. In the second chapter, for example, immigrants brought new ideas and had an outsize impact on innovation; migrants from this era were more than 1.5 times likelier to file a patent than their US-born peers.67 Andrew Carnegie, an immigrant from Scotland, famously started a steel empire that became the world’s largest corporation. This phenomenon has endured. In 2024, 46 percent of Fortune 500 firms had at least one founder who was a first- or second-generation immigrant, according to a recent study.68

From steamboats in the first chapter to smartphones in the fourth, the United States has been a leader in invention. Americans came up with or collaborated on the vast majority of the most important inventions of the past 250 years (Exhibit 12).69

While the precise inventions included in such a list are of course a matter of debate, the finding of significant US involvement stands even with reasonable changes in the list of inventions. This representative list of the top 100 inventions of the past 250 years was determined using two sources of insight. First, a list was created by generating rankings of the top 100 inventions of the past 250 years from the “deep research” functions of four LLMs (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok) in October 2025. The prompt requested that the top 100 be based on four criteria: 1) scale of impact as measured by number of people affected; 2) level of improvement versus previously available alternatives; 3) direct effects on economic growth or productivity; 4) direct effects on individual quality of life or standard of living. Responses were averaged across the different outputs. Second, the list was cross-checked against academic and journalistic sources released since the year 2000 that attempted to answer a similar question. They considered a 100-plus-year period with an explicitly global lens rather than focusing on the United States. The sources included Larry Gormley and Lee Radford, “The Greatest Inventions In the Past 1000 Years,” Ohio State University, 2000 (revised 2024), and Daniel Stone, "The 10 inventions that changed the world," National Geographic, 2017. Nine items that appeared on two or more of these lists (but not in the top 100 from the LLMs) were added, and the nine lowest-ranking inventions from the LLM output were removed, to arrive at the top 100. Of the nine inventions removed, five were US-led (automatic transmission, semiconductor laser, quantum processing unit, human genome sequence, and modern suspension bridge), one was US-involved (the blue LED), and three did not include significant US involvement (iron puddling, pneumatic tires, and high-speed rail).

The nature of invention changed over time, as did who funded it.70 In the first chapter, self-taught tinkerers and artisans such as Eli Whitney led the charge. In the second, the industrial research lab took center stage, providing capital to inventors such as Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla. In the third, collaborations between government, universities, and businesses mobilized teams such as a group at Bell Labs led by William Shockley, John Bardeen, and Walter Brattain, co-inventors of the first transistor. During this chapter, funding for R&D primarily came from government, with strong incentives rooted in Cold War–era geopolitical competition. In the fourth, business once again played a larger role in funding R&D. Knowledge ecosystems, including universities and venture capital–backed start-ups, became the centers of invention, with figures such as Steve Jobs envisioning products and ways of interacting with technology such as smartphones, backed by teams that turned those ideas into reality.

The United States has led the invention of new products, systems, and technologies over the past 250 years.
A table lists a selection of major inventions from 1775 to present day, highlighting those that are US‑led or US‑involved. Many foundational innovations across eras are marked, including industrial technologies (for example the steamboat and assembly line), communications and computing breakthroughs (transistor, ARPANET/internet, microprocessor, personal computer), and recent advances (cloud computing, CRISPR gene editing, mRNA vaccines, generative AI). The density of highlighted entries illustrates repeated US participation in step‑change innovations. Takeaway: US competitiveness has been reinforced by a long history of invention and technology leadership.

The entrepreneurial spirit of the United States was not limited to tech visionaries. It was also embedded in the American people and business community, who have long had the appetite (and means) to adopt and scale new technologies, including those invented elsewhere, such as the automobile, first developed in Germany in 1885. Over time, inventions such as railroads, telephones, and personal computers were adopted more quickly in the United States than elsewhere (Exhibit 13). The effects on the economy and the fabric of life were manifold: better connections, greater economies of scale, and faster transportation, communication, and learning. While these examples are historical, the same can be said of some more recent technologies; for example, the United States has been at the forefront of scaling cloud computing services.71

Throughout its history, the US has been a rapid adopter of technologies that connect the population across distance.
Three line charts compare adoption of railroads, telephones, and personal computers across countries. The US expands railroad track per capita rapidly in the 19th century and reaches higher levels than peers; it also shows earlier and steeper growth in telephones per capita through the mid‑20th century. For personal computers (1980s–2000s), the US again rises quickly and stays among the highest penetration levels relative to other advanced economies. Takeaway: the US has often scaled network and connectivity technologies faster than peers, helping integrate markets and boost productivity.

Americans have adopted generative AI even faster than earlier transformative technologies.72 That said, however, other countries have been faster; a recent ranking puts the United States in 24th place for adoption rates, behind many other G7 economies.73 As discussed, Chinese companies are embedding AI at a rapid clip. This raises the crucial questions of whether the United States can maintain this foundation of competitiveness, and, if lost, what reclaiming it might take.

Institutions and infrastructure reinforce the foundations

Over the past 250 years, institutions have embodied and supported the country’s entrepreneurial culture, and infrastructure has helped the United States harness the power of its natural resources. A virtuous cycle animates both. Entrepreneurial culture encouraged the development of new forms of governance, and the resulting institutions in turn encouraged higher ambitions and risk-taking. Resource discovery demanded infrastructure investment, while better infrastructure enabled and encouraged more resource discovery.

American institutions have, throughout history, incorporated the nation’s ideals, especially its entrepreneurial culture. To an unusual degree among modern economies, they have supported and strengthened the spirit of taking risks, protecting intellectual property, and promoting markets and individual freedom.74 The US Constitution is the oldest in the world, having survived a Civil War, the Great Depression, and two World Wars. This stability has been balanced with regulatory adaptability amid economic expansion, shifting geopolitical circumstances, and technological advancements. Federalism, which supports policy experimentation at the state and local levels, has been critical in the development and refinement of institutions. As just one example, in the realm of corporate law, several states moved early to codify limited liability and enact general incorporation laws, starting with New York in 1811. The approach ultimately spread and has been central to the development of modern corporations.75 Institutions such as comparatively generous bankruptcy laws also have encouraged entrepreneurship and risk-taking.76

The American educational system, another critical and evolving institution, has produced a well-educated, dynamic labor force, installing an ethos of constant improvement in the entrepreneurial foundation.77 The expansion of public education, especially in the early 20th century, created a workforce with a baseline of general knowledge. By the end of the second historical chapter, the United States had one of the highest rates of education in the world. Importantly, American education emphasized problem solving and flexibility over specialization, creating a more adaptable workforce and lowering switching costs for workers.78 Developments in tertiary education, such as the Morrill Land-Grant Act in the first historical chapter and the GI Bill in the third, also expanded knowledge and skills development in technical fields. Lower regulation in labor markets than seen elsewhere complemented an educated and adaptable workforce to lift competitiveness.79

The US financial system, meanwhile, emerged as both a product and an enabler of the American entrepreneurial culture. Beginning in the early years of the republic, the United States developed deep capital markets and innovative financial institutions. Beyond positioning the country as a global financial leader as early as the 1830s, early finance provided funding for major infrastructure projects, including canals and railroads, as well as industry.80 Over time, financial institutions made it easier for firms to form, scale, and fail without permanently deterring future experimentation.

Infrastructure has also contributed to America’s competitiveness. Infrastructure moved minerals, energy resources, water, and agricultural goods to ports or places of consumption and adapted over time as the country’s context and needs shifted. Americans built their earliest railroads to transport coal to factories, specialized piers to ship iron ore across the Great Lakes, and vast aqueducts to divert water to arid mining claims. Then, too, natural resources were integral to infrastructure construction, especially minerals such as copper for electrical equipment and iron ore for steel in bridges, buildings, and pipes, among numerous other fixtures. US infrastructure today supports the second-largest domestic freight system in the world, including the longest freight railroad network and the second-longest highway system.81 Today, institutions and infrastructure alone do not make the United States unique; plenty of other countries have high-quality infrastructure and pro-market institutions. But they have supported US competitiveness in a uniquely American way over the course of the past quarter millennium.


Plentiful natural resources and favorable geography provided both easy connection to markets and security, allowing for rapid advances in industry, science, and technology. But natural resources alone were not enough; harnessing them, in evolving and often innovative ways, has made the difference.82 The nation’s entrepreneurial spirit was similarly codified and strengthened by strong property rights and pro-market institutions and was further nurtured over time through educational and financial systems. In the next section, we discuss how in the chapter to come, the United States can build on the foundations that have served it so well throughout its history.