COP is an annual meeting where member states of the United Nations convene to assess progress in dealing with climate change and make a plan for climate action within the guidelines of the UNFCCC. (The formal name for the meetings is the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, or the United Nations Climate Change Conference.) The first COP was held in Berlin in 1995. Last year’s COP30 was held in Belém, Brazil.
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Anna Granskog is a partner in McKinsey’s Helsinki office, Bengi Korkmaz is a partner in the Istanbul office; Mark Patel is a senior partner in the Bay Area office; Mekala Krishnan is a partner in the Boston office; Sanjay Kalavar is a senior partner in the Houston office; Stefan Helmcke is a senior partner in the Vienna office.
COP decisions indicate a level of global consensus. That’s because in the UN system, every country has the same voting rights regardless of size or GDP. Plus, decisions are generally made by consensus. UN member states send representatives to participate in the negotiations. Observer organizations also send delegates, and industry representatives and lobbyists attend as well.
But before we dive any further into COP—including its triumphs and challenges and what to expect from this year’s conference—let’s provide some background.
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What are greenhouse gases?
Greenhouse gases are naturally occurring gases, such as CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide, that trap heat on Earth, like a greenhouse traps heat to grow tomatoes in cold climates. According to NASA, without greenhouse gases, the average temperature on Earth would be 0°F (–18°C), rather than the much balmier 59°F (15°C) it is now.
Starting in the early 19th century, as the Industrial Revolution progressed, humans started burning massive amounts of fossil fuels to support increasingly mechanized lifestyles. Burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. And they’re not going anywhere anytime soon: CO2, which is the cause for about three-quarters of global warming, can take thousands of years to be fully absorbed. More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means a warmer planet.
What is a 1.5°C pathway?
In 2025, the average global surface temperature was about 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 average, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would reduce risks to ecosystems, human health, and well-being. At 1.5°C, coral reefs would decline by 70 to 90 percent, while virtually all would be lost at 2°C. A 1.5°C pathway is a plan to keep the average global temperature below 1.5°C relative to preindustrial levels.
The Emissions Gap Report 2026, released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in October 2026, finds that global temperatures are set to exceed 1.5°C. UNEP says the chance of keeping warming below 1.5°C with no overshoot is gone. Overshoot means exceeding 1.5°C temporarily before returning to or below it. UNEP’s “lowest possible” overshoot scenario limits peak warming around mid-21 century to 1.7 to 1.8°C and returns it to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with about a 50 percent likelihood of achievement. It also requires increasing levels of carbon dioxide removal through the century.
The report also finds that if current trajectories continue, warming could reach 2.8°C this century. Many companies, countries, and organizations have pledged to decarbonize, or make the transition to net zero, in the coming years. But, the report finds, only six G20 members are likely to achieve their unconditional 2030 targets.
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What is net zero?
A net-zero gain of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would be achieved when annual greenhouse gas emissions are equal to the amount removed each year. The pathways to net zero, identified by the IPCC, involve decarbonization, energy efficiency, and carbon removal.
Decarbonization is the reduction of carbon and other emitted greenhouse gases; it is achieved by replacing the use of high-carbon-emitting fossil fuels with low-emission energy sources. Energy efficiency reduces emissions by lowering how much energy is needed in the first place, through measures such as better-insulated buildings, more efficient industrial processes, and electrified transport. Carbon removal solutions—whether natural, such as restoring forests, or technological, such as direct air capture and storage—remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it over the long term.
To achieve net-zero emissions, decarbonization would need to happen across all sectors, including energy, materials, agriculture, and land use. Carbon removal would also be necessary to offset residual, hard-to-abate emissions from industries such as cement.
What are the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement?
The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, was a landmark international treaty in which signatories agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent human interference with the natural climate. The treaty, a result of COP3, was one of the most significant results of the COP meetings. In 2012, the agreement was extended to 2020.
The Paris Agreement, also known as the Paris Climate Accords, is an international treaty negotiated in 2015 at COP21. In Paris, participants agreed to limit the increase of global temperatures to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C, relative to preindustrial levels. According to the agreement, each country must track, record, and report its carbon emissions and its efforts to reduce and offset them.
Monthly or even annual breaches of 1.5°C do not mean that the world has failed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, which refers to a long-term temperature increase over decades.
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What to expect at COP31?
The Government of Türkiye will host COP31 in Antalya from November 9–20, 2026. Türkiye leads the Action Agenda and conference arrangements, and Australia serves as president of negotiations.
Ahead of COP31, countries were asked to submit their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs)—their national climate action plans to reduce emissions through 2035. As of September 1, 2026, 124 countries have submitted new NDCs. UNEP’s report finds that full implementation of NDCs would cut emissions by 5 to 8 percent by 2030, and 11 to 15 percent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels, and that if similar efforts continue, warming would be limited to 2.6°C. The lowest-overshoot scenario requires a 45 percent cut by 2035. New NDCs submitted since last year’s report have barely changed these projections.
In formal negotiations, governments will take up items carried over from COP30 and the June talks in Bonn. Parties could not settle how to refine and implement the 59 Belém Adaptation Indicators adopted at COP30, including related finance questions or the mitigation work program—the only formal agenda item focused on cutting emissions—so both move to Antalya for further discussion. Work continues on the just transition mechanism agreed at COP30, and the second global stocktake, a two-year assessment of progress that runs through 2028, begins. Pairs of ministers are facilitating talks on mitigation, adaptation, finance, just transitions, and oceans.
The Action Agenda, which the COP presidency sets, runs alongside the negotiations and relies on voluntary initiatives and partnerships among businesses, investors, cities, financial institutions, and civil society to turn commitments into practical action. Türkiye has identified ten priority themes: zero waste; oceans and seas; food security; climate-resilient cities; a climate implementation bridge; youth and education; green industrialization; clean energy transition; Rio synergy (climate, biodiversity, and land restoration); and dynamic and resilient health systems. Finance, technology, and capacity building are intended to support progress across them.
McKinsey will host executive discussions on four of those themes: clean energy transition, climate resilience, green industrialization, and zero waste.
What were the key takeaways from COP30?
COP30 ended with 195 parties adopting a set of commitments known as the Belém Package. Countries reaffirmed the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C and the need for climate finance, though no new official finance targets were agreed. Parties agreed to triple adaptation finance by 2035 and identified 59 voluntary measures of progress on adaptation. Countries referenced the COP28 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly, and equitable” manner, although no road map for phasing out fossil fuels was validated.
Alongside the negotiations, the Action Agenda and other initiatives let companies and organizations take part, producing a slate of voluntary actions. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility launched with endorsement from 53 countries as a finance mechanism to preserve forests. The Global Implementation Accelerator, a voluntary collaborative initiative, was created to support NDCs and adaptation plans. Brazil launched a voluntary Open Coalition for carbon markets, which 18 countries joined.
COP30 put more emphasis than past meetings on nature and forest protection, the role of indigenous populations, and adaptation. McKinsey’s conversations with delegates found strong momentum among companies and organizations, even though official outcomes may have fallen short of what many hoped for. Many companies were already engaging in adaptation under other labels, such as business continuity planning or supply chain resiliency. Financial institutions came in force to scale climate finance and derisk investments, and companies in every region were asking for policy certainty and effective incentives such as carbon pricing or standards.
McKinsey Global Institute research found that about 13.5 percent of the low-emissions technologies needed to meet Paris-aligned 2050 targets had been deployed by the end of 2024, about three percentage points more than in 2022, and at roughly half the required pace. Our colleagues’ reflections concluded that climate action can progress even if governments struggle to find common ground on major resolutions.
Articles referenced include:
“Reflections from COP30: Momentum is stronger than formal commitments suggest,” December 11, 2025, Anna Granskog, Hemant Ahlawat, Mark Patel, Mekala Krishnan, and Sanjay Kalavar
“Reflections post COP29: The landscape has shifted—are you adapting fast enough?,” December 11, 2024, Anna Granskog, Hemant Ahlawat, Sanjay Kalavar, and Vishal Agarwal
“Outcomes from COP28: What next to accelerate climate action?,” December 21, 2023, Tarek El Sayed, Cindy Levy, Peter Mannion, Daniel Pacthod, Joe Rahi, and Rory Sullivan
This article was updated in November 2026; it was originally published in August 2023.
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