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McKinsey Center for Future Mobility

Shared Mobility

We help leaders across all sectors relevant to the shared-mobility ecosystem develop a deeper understanding of the disruptions and how to capitalize the opportunities ahead.

The potential expansion of e-hailing, car sharing, urban air mobility, and other diverse mobility solutions is changing how we travel. Riders now have many cost-effective and convenient alternatives to vehicle ownership, and their options will continue to grow over the next decade.

The shared mobility market now exceeds $60 billion in value across the three largest markets: China, Europe, and the United States. The future will bring even greater gains as self-driving taxis and shuttles become more common and urban air mobility moves past the pilot stage. With this momentum, we expect the annual growth rate for shared-mobility solutions to exceed 20 percent through 2030.

While shared mobility is a recent trend, it has quickly shifted consumer preferences away from car ownership toward alternative forms of transportation, making it an extremely disruptive force. Many of the associated changes will be positive, since the growth of shared mobility will open new and profitable opportunities for multiple companies, including automakers, suppliers, technology businesses, and aerospace experts. For example, the vehicles used for urban air mobility transport are expensive and beyond the reach of individual ownership for most people, resulting in a relatively small market. However, a business model in which multiple riders purchase tickets for trips, or companies share costs for the transport of goods, could make urban air mobility an accessible and affordable option.

Projected impact

The shared-mobility market could evolve through two different paths: either transformative, where it becomes an entirely different market, or status quo, where it grows steadily in its current state through 2030. Automakers positioning themselves for the future must be prepared and determine how to benefit from a market that could go either way.

The transformative path could accelerate through cities’ supportive initiatives to introduce autonomous vehicles. This would enable companies to further monetize and provide for new use cases, such as wheelchair-bound passengers and parents traveling with children, through purpose-built vehicles. The status quo path would likely involve steady growth based on convenience and economics as companies offer cost-efficient alternatives to taxis and public transportation. We believe customer preference, regulation, and technology will determine which path comes to fruition.

Client impact examples

Launching a global think tank for urban mobility

A ridesharing company sets out to reimagine urban smart mobility by bringing together and leveraging the right talent, partnerships, and data.

Finding new growth

A leading OEM used opportunities revealed from mobility disruptions to identify expansion strategies.

Cross-industry perspectives

Shared mobility will have a disruptive impact across multiple sectors and industries. We have identified critical areas of focus for incumbents and new entrants in these particular sectors wanting to keep pace amid the changes ahead:

Automotive OEMs and suppliers

There will be new business models and changing ecosystems, new forms of cooperation and partnerships, and emerging competition from new entrants.

Travel, transport, and logistics

The cannibalization of core businesses (for example, taxis, car-rental companies) and introduction of last-mile delivery will take place.

Cities and governments

Partnership models, regulation, and the future of public and private transportation will evolve.

Technology

There will be an expansion of autonomous vehicles, shared fleets, platform technologies, and ownership of customer data.

Proprietary assets

Our proprietary tools and models cover all topics relevant to transportation, including investment patterns, vehicle design, regulatory frameworks, infrastructure, cost-per-mile, city suitability for various types of transport, and market sizing. Together, this information helps companies make informed decisions about their next steps.

Go-to-market strategy for purpose-built-vehicles

Unique integration of design research and empathetic user research, quantitative consumer insights, and traditional strategic analytics, reveals and frames new opportunity spaces for automotive-experience innovation.

Urban air mobility ecosystem project and investment database

The urban air mobility ecosystem database tracks companies and projects on the emerging electric and hybrid electric flying car industry.

Shared-mobility strategy

Our Auto2030 model provides insights into how disruptive automotive trends will affect traditional OEMs and suppliers, potential new players, regulators, consumers, national car markets, and the automotive value chain. It helps clients define where to compete in the shared-mobility space.

Purpose-built vehicle design

State-of-the-art design capabilities from acquired design firm LUNAR can help determine product roadmaps for purpose-built vehicles by completely rethinking the design.

Software capabilities

Our ‘Startup and Investment Landscape Analysis’ tool assesses the software capabilities needed to compete in the shared mobility space (for example, platforms, fleet management) and defines a plan to fill the gaps.

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