McKinsey Center for Future Mobility


We help leaders in the mobility industries, others along the value chain, and public sector develop a deeper understanding of electric-vehicle challenges and opportunities.

Electric vehicles (EV) are nearing an inflection point as changing consumer attitudes, improved battery economics, broader access to charging infrastructure, and stricter regulatory policies all present growth opportunities. Our research focuses on the transition to electric propulsion with insights on technologies and trends set to transform mobility industries and the public sector globally.

Leaders in mobility-related industries and the public sector should focus on areas such as short-term e-mobility profitability, manufacturing versus buying EV components, manufacturing production plants, switching investment from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs, investing in EV-charging infrastructure, and use cases for electrified medium and heavy-duty trucks.

Projected impact

As automotive technologies advance, new use cases for electric vehicles will emerge for passenger vehicles, light-commercial vehicles, and medium to large trucks. These use cases will be influenced by factors such as geographic location of vehicle use (that is, dense urban city versus suburban city), vehicle ownership model (shared versus privately owned), and city, state, and national regulations.

In the short term, automakers face the challenge of selling enough electric vehicles to comply with tightening regulatory fleet emissions and fuel-economy targets while remaining profitable despite costly battery packs. It’s important to keep focus on ICE models, which are the profit engine for today’s business.

In the long term, we expect significant disruption from e-mobility due to four trends today:

Lowered costs from technology improvements

Battery prices have decreased by about 80 percent since 2010, bringing an estimated pack cost down to around $227 per kilowatt.

Shifting consumer demand

30 to 45 percent of vehicle buyers in the United States and Germany, respectively, consider an EV purchase today.

Increased urbanization

1.1 billion new urban residents by 2030 are expected to have created greater demand for e-mobility solutions.

Accelerated regulatory forces

Stricter emissions and fuel-economy targets at national, state, and city levels are expected to continue.

Client impact examples

Developing charging infrastructure

An automotive supplier creates and prioritizes a suite of charging use cases to assess revenue potential from physical hardware and new business models.

Establishing an investment plan across the value chain

A private equity firm runs a series of market scans for emerging electrified vehicle technologies.

Assessing impact on electricity grids

A national utility company determines potential impact from electric car uptick on national and local electricity demand.

Cross-industry perspectives

As electric vehicles come to market, we anticipate disruption across multiple sectors and industries. We have identified critical areas of focus for incumbents and new entrants in these particular sectors wanting to keep pace amid the changes ahead:


There will be emerging use cases and business models around charging infrastructure, supplier changes across the powertrain value chain, and greater development of fully electrified platforms.

Travel, transport, and logistics

Emerging use cases for electrified trucks (medium duty and heavy duty) and last-mile delivery with electrified vehicles will gain prominence.

City, state/region, national governments

There will be greater emphasis on partnership models and investments for charging infrastructure.


Changes to local and national grid loads from electrified vehicle rollout will be seen, along with new business models related to grid storage and load balancing.

Proprietary assets

Our research has helped us develop extensive insights and tools to address critical electric vehicle topics that include:

Electric vehicle benchmarking

Our Design-to-Insights database provides information on approximately 1,000 components for battery electric vehicles, including images and 3D representations. It enables technical analyses, cost assessments and side-by-side comparisons across vehicles.

If you’re interested to learn more, contact us at

Component demand and investment strategy

Our Electrified-Vehicle Component Market Model offers insight into component take rates through 2035. It predicts market size for components (units, revenue, and profits) and helps define where to compete across the electrified vehicle value chain, determine the appropriate business models, and develop a plan to address capability and technology gaps.

Electrified-vehicle growth strategy

Our Powertrain Scenario Model leverages a forward-looking view of vehicle total cost of ownership to simulate multiple forecasting scenarios based on consumer preferences and regulatory environments. It shows anticipated vehicle sales through 2030 by powertrain type (for example, internal combustion engine, hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle) and vehicle segment (for example, compact, sedan, premium, and SUV/light truck) for China, Europe, and the United States.

Battery-cost development

Our Battery Cost Model provides a bottom-up analysis of current costs and future development based on demand, technology, and supply scenarios. It simulates effects of technological improvements (for example, improved cathode chemistry), material price effects (shortage of cobalt supply), and learning and scale effects (increased EV adoption).

Consumer beliefs about electrified vehicles

Our 2016 Global Survey of EV Consumer Preferences Database includes findings from a consumer panel of about 3,500 consumers across the US, Germany, and Norway, and about 3,500 consumers in China. Select findings are available in the 2016 report How Automakers Can Drive Electrified Vehicle Sales and Profitability.

Electrified Vehicle Index

Our Electric Vehicle Index (EVI) analyzes the development of electric mobility in 15 selected countries. The EVI helps companies, governments, and the public understand two critical dimensions of e-mobility in each country: the market side (for example, EV share in overall light-vehicle market, government subsidies, charging infrastructure) and the industry side (for example, local OEM production of EVs, local production of EV components).

Featured insights


How hydrogen combustion engines can contribute to zero emissions

– Hydrogen combustion engines can leverage existing technologies and provide a zero-emissions option for specific use cases while... supporting the growth of hydrogen infrastructure.

EV fast charging: How to build and sustain competitive differentiation

– As millions of electric vehicles hit the roads in the next decade, the need for fast charging will grow rapidly. To win in this... already competitive market, providers must differentiate themselves.

The impact of electromobility on the German electric grid

– Estimates indicate that eight million electric vehicles could be on the roads in Germany by 2030. Investing in fast-charging stations... and managed charging will be key to upgrading infrastructure.

Electromobility’s impact on powertrain machinery

– The shift to electric powertrains will ripple back to affect the machine-tool industry. Here’s what manufacturers need to... know.

Winning the Chinese BEV market: How leading international OEMs compete

– Keeping up with the ever-changing battery-electric-vehicle industry is a high-stakes challenge. Our benchmark of two international... and ten local models reveals how OEMs can win over Chinese consumers.

Building better batteries: Insights on chemistry and design from China

– A detailed benchmark analysis of the batteries of Chinese battery-electric vehicles reveals how differences in battery-cell and... battery-pack design affect performance.
Article - McKinsey Quarterly

The irresistible momentum behind clean, electric, connected mobility: Four key trends

– Mobility’s future is visible in the increasing support of capital markets, the demands of Chinese consumers, the effort to slow... climate change, and the new skills automakers will need to deal with these shifts.

Why most eTrucks will choose overnight charging

– Electric trucks are coming, but fleets need to find the best charging strategies to keep them going.

Global emergence of electrified small-format mobility

– Electric two- and three-wheel vehicles are gaining in popularity. What does the future hold for the market?

Electric mobility after the crisis: Why an auto slowdown won’t hurt EV demand

– Global auto sales plunged during the COVID-19 crisis, but electric mobility has remained remarkably resilient in some countries.... Here’s what’s ahead for the electric-vehicle market.

Improving battery-electric-vehicle profitability through reduced structural costs

– As sales of battery electric vehicles increase, OEMs need to focus on R&D excellence, flexible manufacturing, and value-chain... integration to improve profitability.

McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index: Europe cushions a global plunge in EV sales

– McKinsey’s recent analysis of global electric-vehicle markets shows both challenges and opportunities ahead.

How to drive winning battery-electric-vehicle design: Lessons from benchmarking ten Chinese models

– Our analysis of the Chinese battery-electric-vehicle market revealed important clues for OEMs that want to thrive in this sector.

Leaving the niche: Seven steps for a successful go-to-market model for electric vehicles

– To regain momentum after the COVID-19 pandemic ends, the players in this market must reconsider their strategies.

The road ahead for e-mobility

– How can automakers captivate consumers and achieve mass-market electric-vehicle adoption?

Reboost: A comprehensive view on the changing powertrain component market and how suppliers can succeed

– New research on the potential developments of 28 powertrain component markets suggests the shifts that are coming—and suppliers... should start preparing for them now.

China auto consumer insights 2019

– Here’s what you need to know to navigate the road ahead in the world’s largest auto market.

Expanding electric-vehicle adoption despite early growing pains

– The latest analysis of our Electric Vehicle Index shows the global electric-light-vehicle industry continues to make solid progress.... To accelerate growth further, several hurdles need to be overcome.

Fast transit: Why urban e-buses lead electric-vehicle growth

– Looking for the most successful electric-vehicle segment? Take the e-bus.

Harnessing momentum for electrification in heavy machinery and equipment

– Battery-electric adoption could offer sizable potential in heavy machinery. There’s a strong business case for some applications... already—and addressing barriers could unlock more opportunity.

Lubes growth opportunities remain despite switch to electric vehicles

– Lubricating oils have traditionally been one of the most attractive areas in the oil and gas value chain, but disruption is on... the horizon with the rise of electrification in the transport sector.

Charging ahead: Electric-vehicle infrastructure demand

– Access to efficient charging could become a roadblock to electric-vehicle uptake. Let’s look at the numbers and costs behind... the problem.

The potential impact of electric vehicles on global energy systems

– Electric vehicles are unlikely to create a power-demand crisis but could reshape the load curve. Here’s how to bend that... curve to your advantage.

Lithium and cobalt: A tale of two commodities

– What does the rise of electric vehicles mean for two critical raw materials that go into their batteries—and for the players... in this ecosystem?

The global electric-vehicle market is amped up and on the rise

– China remains firmly in the lead on our Electric Vehicle Index. But other pockets of growing public- and private-sector commitment... to these vehicles have emerged.

What a teardown of the latest electric vehicles reveals about the future of mass-market EVs

– McKinsey and A2Mac1 analyzed design choices that can help pave the way to profitable mass-market EVs.

How battery storage can help charge the electric-vehicle market

– People are reluctant to buy electric vehicles because of concerns about charging. But public, fast-charging infrastructure is... not yet widely available or profitable. There is a way to resolve that conundrum.

Trends in electric-vehicle design

– What did we learn from a teardown and benchmarking of ten EV models?

What’s sparking electric-vehicle adoption in the truck industry?

– Commercial fleets could go electric rapidly. Understanding total cost of ownership and focusing on specific cases is critical.

Dynamics in the global electric-vehicle market

– New research on electric mobility reveals Chinese OEMs produced 43 percent of EVs worldwide in 2016 and highlights other trends... in supply and demand.
Article - McKinsey Quarterly

China’s electric-vehicle market plugs in

– China has emerged as a leader in both the supply of—and demand for—electric vehicles.

The future(s) of mobility: How cities can benefit

– Autonomous vehicles, electric powertrains, vehicle sharing, and other advances are transforming urban mobility. Planning ahead... can help cities capture the benefits of the shift, from cleaner air to easier journeys.
Article - McKinsey Quarterly

Three game changers for energy

– New sources, mobility, and industry fragmentation are set to disrupt the system.

Electrifying insights: How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability

– Automakers face a difficult challenge: They must strike the right balance between selling enough electrified vehicles (EVs) to... comply with tightening regulatory fleet emissions and fuel economy targets, while preventing the incremental cost of adding costly battery packs to their vehicles from cannibalizing corporate profits. To compound matters, automakers cannot afford to lose focus on combustion engine models, which are often more profitable. Against this backdrop, our latest report provides fresh insights and potential solutions.

Disruptive trends that will transform the auto industry

– Technology-driven trends will revolutionize how industry players respond to changing consumer behavior, develop partnerships,... and drive transformational change.

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