McKinsey Global Economics Intelligence

The year ends with political shifts and mixed markets: European equities are flat; US stocks are down. Global interest rates are normalizing, with the Fed and ECB each cutting rates by 25 basis points.

After the US elections, economic uncertainty has grown, raising questions about trade. Meanwhile, China announced stimulus measures, and central banks continue to adjust monetary policy as inflation eases.

Third-quarter GDP reports reveal a mixed global economy. China faces an economic slowdown; the United States sees growth; and the eurozone is stable. The IMF forecasts a slow but stable global trajectory into 2025.

The OECD sees the global economy improving. Central banks’ strategies are diverging, with some cutting rates and others raising them. China announces a major stimulus, and the US Federal Reserve cuts rates.

US employers added 818,000 fewer jobs (30%) than estimated for the 12 months ended in March, but second quarter growth was up 3.0%. Central banks are moving rates or considering doing so, including the US Federal Reserve.

The economy remains resilient, but data signals a deceleration; China followed earlier moves by the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank by easing monetary policy, cutting rates twice in a month.

The ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as other central banks hold; economic survey respondents remain cautious amid global uncertainty and expect more cuts; and the EU adds tariffs on China EVs.

Central banks largely hold interest rates, with inflation still above target; freight rates are expected to spike; the US is expected to impose tariffs on multiple imports from China.

Uncertainty continues to dominate the global economy; central banks hold rates in the face of sticky inflation; manufacturing picks up as services continue expansion; trade maintains momentum.

Consumption continues to be resilient, except in Europe; central banks hold interest rates steady due to ongoing inflation risk; business survey respondents show increased confidence in economy.

Global economic uncertainty elevated but consumers upbeat; China faces deflation, real estate problems, and FDI decline; EU growth stagnant; high US interest rates affecting households and companies.

The global economy was more resilient than anticipated in 2023, but there were patchy bright spots; 2024 brings further ambiguity.

2024 looks uncertain: inflation has come down but long-term interest rates remain high; retail sales are relatively stable; manufacturing continues to contract; geopolitical concerns are on the rise.

Elevated interest rates weigh on consumer confidence; central banks hold rates, except in Brazil (down) and Russia (up); inflation subsiding for now and is negative in China; growth subdued in Europe.

The global outlook is unchanged despite weaker readings in trade, consumer confidence, and business activity. Still-elevated inflation and interest rates are acting as headwinds to economic growth.

Some leading indicators improved, though outlook still fragile; confidence stable but consumers lean toward saving; inflation and trade volumes continue downward trend.

Leading indicators show signs of a rebound—will it sustain? Confidence potentially returning but consumers remain cautious; inflation persistent in some countries; trade volumes still declining.

Mixed economic picture with patchy positives; consumers cautious but confidence rising; inflation in developed economies decelerates, while producer prices decline; trade volumes down.

Global executives more positive; consumer confidence improving but low; emerging economies rebound; Fed pauses rate hikes as ECB raises rates by 25 basis points; inflation low in India and Brazil.

Consumers slightly more optimistic as inflation stabilizes; developed economies struggle to maintain GDP momentum in face of headwinds; labor markets tight; China rebound slows; India economy positive.

Inflation remains high while trending down; the International Monetary Fund lowered global growth projections to 2.8% for 2023; US banking sector challenges persist; output indicators in services stay strong.

Some economic indicators strengthen amid persisting inflation and investor uncertainty; central banks keep to a tightening course.

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GDP forecasts improve; central banks sustain inflation battle amid cost-of-living crisis; China further eases pandemic restrictions, noting risks.

Industry and consumer activity sags under weight of inflation and higher interest rates; forecasting institutions trim GDP growth projections for 2023.

Growth rebounds in the United States and China; eurozone inflation reaches new heights as tightening continues; energy, climate reports paint a sober picture.

Central banks sustain aggressive policy tightening; industrial activity picks up in emerging economies; financial-markets uncertainty works to strengthen the dollar.

Growth moderates globally in an inflationary environment; the US Federal Reserve emphasizes its tightening course; Europe faces near-term energy volatility.

High energy prices stoke inflation; central banks chart tightening course; supply challenges persist and industry struggles to meet demand.

Amid high inflation, a pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, surveyed economies display considerable resilience; trade is strong, and manufacturing and services continue to expand moderately.

Industry slowed in January amid high inflation and recent pandemic measures; trade remained buoyant; the Russian government’s invasion of Ukraine is causing a humanitarian crisis and economic risks.

Industry and trade in goods grow on strong consumer demand; the pandemic wave, inflation, and geopolitical tensions present risks to faster growth in 2022.

Industry indicators are broadly positive alongside persisting inflation; pandemic restrictions return to Europe; nations recommit to ambitious climate goals.

With rising vaccination rates, surveyed economies are reopening more fully; industry and trade are expanding despite the pandemic’s knock-on effects.

Rapid growth and strong demand bump against pandemic-related disruptions; energy prices surge, but long-term inflation expectations remain moderate.

Industrial activity strengthens and consumer demand returns while inflation accelerates; the pandemic wave worsens significantly

As the global economy emerges from the worst of the pandemic, strong growth returns, accompanied by inflation.

Amid the agonies of a second pandemic year, the recovery gathers further momentum; business leaders and policy makers ponder rising inflation.

A broad economic recovery continues to gather momentum—but against a backdrop of pandemic resurgence and a national crisis in India.

Amid a resurging pandemic, the economic recovery accelerates, pushed forward by demand and output from China and the United States.

Uncertainty about geopolitics and trade now loom equally large as perceived economic disruptions, and surveyed executives express...

A month after the US elections, potential changes to trade relationships and other policies are top of mind for executives. Expectations...

Expectations for customer demand and profits remain largely positive, and the share of respondents expecting their companies...