Grid managers have announced an ambitious investment plan for the next three to four years, with annual investments of around €860 million per year for both distribution and transmission. Our analysis suggests investments of up to €990 million will be needed per year (on average) by 2030 to deliver the energy transition in Portugal (1.0 to 1.2 times the announced plan).
Allowance for more capital expenditure (capex), including anticipatory recognition of investments, smarter grids (for example, with real-time data collection and better preventive maintenance), and strong value chain reliability and preparedness will be key to delivering the investment plan.
Such increase in investment is needed, as REN is investing less than its peers—our analysis suggests Portugal’s REN adjusted capex/EBITDA ratio is 0.8 times compared to Germany’s Eurogrid 1.8 times or France’s RTE 2.0 times.