The Industry & Energy Transition Index: Portugal

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction

Progress in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (% change vs 1990 baseline)

Greenhouse gas emissions in Portugal have been decreasing since 2017. By 2023, the country had reduced its total emissions by 38 percent versus 2005 levels and was on track to achieve its target.

From a sector perspective (detailed next),¹ looking at 2022 official data, the power and buildings sectors reduced their emissions the most (63 and 50 percent versus 2005, respectively). As of 2022, most emissions in Portugal were generated by transportation (30 percent), followed by industry and power sectors (25 and 17 percent).

PNEC sets specific targets for only a few sectors. Among those, both the transport and agriculture sectors lag their 2030 goal trajectory, while the waste management sector is on track.²

Most countries have defined 2030 targets against 1990 levels, in line with EU’s Fit for 55 regulation. The Portuguese 55 percent reduction target versus 2005 is equivalent to a 34 percent reduction target versus 1990.

Sector perspectives

Overall emissions

Emissions are declining and are on track to reach Portugal's 2030 ambitions.

Indicator definition

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions include all GHG emissions in CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) from all sectors in the economy as per the IPCC guidelines. It excludes land use, land-use change, and forestry, as well as international aviation and navigation.

We analyzed overall emissions and their breakdown across six sectors (transport, industry, power, buildings, agriculture, and waste management), according to the McKinsey Global Institute taxonomy.

Progress assessment

The most recent data point is a reduction of 38 percent emissions in 2023 (versus 2005 levels), based on the data from the European Commission’s 2024 EDGAR report.³ The data series with historical values comes from the European Environment Agency (EEA). To assess progress, a linear curve between 2019 and 2030 is considered, the arrival reference being the PNEC’s latest target of a reduction of 55 percent. To that curve, a standard deviation (based on 2014–19 historical data) is removed or added to create an on-track range. As the most recent progress is within that range, the status for the indicator is on track.

For some sectors, given the lack of implicit goals in PNEC, we did not assess progress but only drew the current emissions trajectory versus 2005 levels.

_{¹ Sectors include transport, industry, power, buildings, agriculture, and waste management.

² PNEC also sets goals for “services” and “residential” sectors—which do not match EEA historical data.

³ EEA yet to confirm official data for 2023; the EDGAR 2024 report data point was used for 2023.}