Leaders gathered last month for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, on the edge of the Amazon forest, just steps from rivers that form part of the Amazon Delta. From this vantage point, nature was as present as any of the delegates—who arrived facing a mixed outlook. On the one hand, renewable energy now provides more of the world’s new energy than any other source. On the other hand, geopolitical and policy uncertainty, stalling adoption of other climate technologies, and growing energy demand from AI all raise questions about what the sustainability agenda will look like going forward. Overall, emissions and fossil fuel use continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than they would have without the Paris Agreement.
Last year at COP29, leaders acknowledged that global warming is on track to surpass 1.5°C, insurance losses from natural catastrophes are exceeding $135 billion annually, and most countries remain behind on 2030 commitments. This year’s meeting placed greater emphasis on nature and forest protection, the role of indigenous populations, and adaptation than past COPs did. While official negotiation outcomes may have fallen short of what many hoped for, a range of agreements from the voluntary Action Agenda—and the conversations we had with delegates on the ground—illustrate that momentum is strong among organizations and companies to tackle climate-related problems.
It wasn’t easy to get to Belém. Companies that made the trip were particularly determined to show that climate action continues to matter and to drive progress. Many who couldn’t come to Belém traveled to sessions in São Paulo ahead of the official meeting. Our teams held sessions in both locations, covering topics including climate adaptation, nature, scaling climate technologies, and regional approaches to decarbonization. In our sessions and in conversations with clients and attendees, we heard a strong desire to act despite the uncertainty surrounding the official proceedings. We came away convinced that companies have a more pivotal role than ever in addressing and adapting to climate change.
COP30 outcomes
After two weeks of discussion and negotiations at COP30, 195 parties ultimately adopted a set of commitments known as the Belém Package. The agreements underlined the importance of multilateral action. In parallel, the Action Agenda and other informal initiatives allowed participation from companies and organizations, resulting in a slate of voluntary actions. Key outcomes from these channels included the following:
- Countries reaffirmed the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
- The need for climate financing was reaffirmed (though no new official targets were agreed to).
- Countries agreed to a transition to a fossil-fuel-free economy in a “just, orderly, and equitable manner,” although no road map for the phaseout of fossil fuels was validated. Columbia and the Netherlands will host efforts to create a road map outside official negotiated channels.
- Parties agreed to triple adaptation finance by 2035. They identified 59 voluntary measures of progress on adaptation.
- The European Union plus 121 countries submitted climate action plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The Global Implementation Accelerator—a voluntary, collaborative initiative to support NDCs and adaptation plans—was created.
- The Tropical Forests Forever Facility was launched—endorsed by 53 countries—as a finance mechanism to preserve forests.
- Brazil launched a new, voluntary Open Coalition for carbon markets, with 18 member countries joining.
What we heard on the ground
It may not always be apparent, but our research and experience affirm that the world is making progress toward mitigating climate change. Today, about 13.5 percent of the needed deployment of technologies to meet Paris-aligned goals is in place—about 3.5 percentage points more than a year ago. This represents half the pace of what is needed to meet these goals, but it is progress nonetheless.
Companies at COP30 were engaged in thinking about how to drive the agenda forward, seeking ways to remove bottlenecks, find solutions where economics and climate goals align (including for nature and forest protection), and push boundaries of performance and cost. Many have started to assess nature- and climate-related risks in their supply chains, along with developing plans to address them. Our discussions with companies focused on how they can drive value creation and emissions reduction in ways that are affordable, secure, and competitive.
Financial institutions in particular continued to show up in force, seeking approaches to scale climate finance and to derisk investments. There was also strong emphasis on how to partner with other actors—a recognition that finance alone cannot drive the climate transition forward but must be unlocked by demand for decarbonization in the real economy and supported by policy action.
This COP put more focus on adaptation as a core part of the climate agenda, reflecting a growing recognition that climate and nature risks are already prevalent today and are expected to intensify under the current trajectory of emissions. Importantly, our discussions with companies revealed the many ways they are already engaging in adaptation—even if they don’t always label it as such, instead thinking of it as business continuity planning or supply chain resiliency. Some companies are also considering how they can support resilience in the communities in which they operate and through the products and solutions they provide. The challenge now is to broaden this engagement across the private sector and to scale adaptation by creating national adaptation plans, establishing standards and norms, and building the capabilities for better decision-making.
There were many conversations about the role of AI and how it can unlock better outcomes for nature, climate, and people; create more transparency to give investors greater confidence; and reduce costs, which in turn can make investing in things such as nature-based solutions more attractive.
Finally, we heard loud and clear that companies recognize that the transition is playing out differently across regions. Across jurisdictions, they are seeking policy certainty—and effective incentive mechanisms, such as carbon pricing or standards—to support investment decisions.
Navigating the way forward
Given the COP30 outcomes and the broader climate landscape, how can companies navigate what lies ahead to create value while supporting progress on climate and nature? We see many opportunities.
Traversing a varied landscape
The wide range of countries’ commitments underlines the “tale of many transitions” that we see. Depending on the region and the emission-cutting technology, we see both fast and widespread adoption (for example, electric vehicles in China) and slower progress (for example, hydrogen or carbon capture in Europe). Climate solutions are taking hold where the economics make sense. Companies with the relevant capabilities can focus on regions and technologies where economics are favorable and growth potential is strong. As technologies advance and costs come down, more such opportunities will emerge.
Executing on innovation
Leading companies can choose where to create those opportunities. Decarbonization at the required scale will depend less on pure technological advancement and more on exceptional execution to reduce costs, improve performance, and scale proven solutions. To make a meaningful impact on emissions and competitiveness, the world needs to scale existing sustainable technologies 100-fold—and, historically, doing so has cut costs by about 70 percent. Solar, wind, and batteries have already achieved this scale; hydrogen and carbon capture are next in line. As we’ve seen across regions, economic competitiveness—not just emissions—will define the pace of decarbonization. Companies that innovate for low cost and high performance faster than their peers can make outsize contributions to both their own P&L and emission reduction.
Investing in adaptation
For many companies, adaptation is essential—think about companies with large physical assets in places at risk of flooding, or companies with long supply chains that therefore create many potential points of climate exposure. Companies can build the capabilities to understand their direct exposures to climate hazards, as well as their indirect exposures across their supply chains, distribution channels, and customer bases. This understanding can inform the right adaptation measures, many of which are proven and cost-effective. Companies can also play a role in providing products and solutions—for example, financial institutions offering products that enable adaptation financing and engineering companies supporting the design and construction of flood defenses.
Addressing the nature financing gap
Closing the global nature financing gap will require approximately $940 billion more in annual spending—approximately a fivefold increase—by 2030 than what is spent today. An emerging financing tool kit of sustainability-linked bonds and loans, impact funds, environmental credits, and debt-for-nature swaps, among other solutions, can help fill this gap. To make this happen will require standardizing decision-relevant data, expanding the pipeline of investible projects, and shifting market norms to recognize the value of nature. Leveraging new tools, including AI, can support nature and climate action—for example, as tools in measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) and scenario modeling. These technologies can cut verification costs, increase transparency, and make natural capital markets investable.
Across COP30’s sessions, one message had strong consensus: Climate action can and will progress even if governments struggle to find common ground for major resolutions. The next decade will reward companies that treat sustainability not as an obligation, but as the next great opportunity.
