Robots are starting to move beyond factories and warehouses into varied, everyday settings. As more companies begin to adopt general-purpose robots, the challenge becomes less about what the technology can do and more about figuring out how people and machines can work together. In this edition of The Next Normal, we take a closer look at where robots are already gaining ground and how the broader landscape could unfold.

The view to 2040 and beyond

The age of thinking machines

The next era of robotics is already taking shape. McKinsey partners Ani Kelkar, Christian Jansen, and Zina Cole explore how the sector could evolve in the coming decades.

When robots start thinking

Robots are becoming less robotic as they learn how to reason, analyze options, and make decisions.
Hear more about robotic capabilities

The robotics cost curve

For robots to gain traction across industries, they will need to become dramatically cheaper and deliver clear economic benefits.
Hear more about robot costs

Humans and robots at work

Robots could take over more of the work people dread, leaving humans to focus on the work they value.
Hear more about human–machine collaboration

The emerging robotics ecosystem

From factories to hospitals to homes, robots could soon take on new roles and create opportunities across the value chain.
Hear more about the growth of robotics

Robotics in the real world

Dancing robots grab attention, but the future belongs to robots that can perform useful tasks safely and reliably in everyday environments.
Hear more about the leap from demos to deployment
Hear more from our experts
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The past five to ten years have witnessed a dramatic shift, with new disruptors, initially from China and the United States, rapidly gaining market share in technologies with significant innovation potential, such as electrification, renewable energy, robotics, autonomy, and AI.

Ting Wu
Partner, Shenzhen
Read Ting’s article
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Success in the AI-native era will require robotics OEMs to move beyond fragmented, machine-specific software stacks toward unified and extensible software architectures. These platforms will serve as the operating layer for robot fleets.

Erik Sparre
Partner, Tokyo
Read Erik’s article

Charting the future

A niche market becomes mainstream

Although the general-purpose robotics market is valued at under $1 billion today, a surge of investment could propel it to an estimated $370 billion by 2040. Investment is expected to rise across regions, with China seeing the greatest upswing. This growth will far outpace that of traditional robots, such as industrial arms, signaling a shift in the industry’s center of gravity.

Our projections assume that researchers will overcome key barriers to adoption, such as issues related to humanoid mobility and dexterity, battery life, safety, and costs. With continued advances in AI systems and hardware, humanoids and other general-purpose robots could make the leap from small-scale pilots to widespread deployment.

Hover over the chart for more detailed data.

Learn more about the growth of the general-purpose robotics market

Meet our experts

Ani Kelkar
PartnerBoston
Advises incumbents, investors, and disruptors in the automotive, aerospace, energy, industrial automation, and robotics sectors on topics including strategy, growth, and operations.
Christian Jansen
PartnerHamburg
Works with leading high tech, industrial, and automotive companies on defining winning strategies in the face of technology disruption, shaping their digital transformation, and building new businesses
Erik Sparre
PartnerTokyo
Advises industrial and technology companies on transformational growth, with a focus on Physical AI, robotics, automation, and advanced connectivity
Mark Patel
Senior PartnerBay Area - San Francisco
Advises clients across sectors on sustainability with a focus on climate technologies; leads client work across industrial, high-tech, and semiconductor sectors
Ting Wu
PartnerShenzhen
Guides industrial clients through comprehensive multiyear digital transformation journeys
Zina Cole
PartnerNew York
Advises leading technology and digital infrastructure players on innovation strategy, market expansion, and scalable growth transformation

Connect with the Industrials practice

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This edition of The Next Normal explores how robots are evolving from programmed machines into intelligent systems.

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Acknowledgments

This edition of The Next Normal is a collaborative effort led by McKinsey Global Publishing, with contributions from Dan Spector, Diane Rice, Eileen Hannigan, Jonathon Rivait, Katie Shearer, Monica Toriello, Philip Mathew, Sean Conrad, and Vicki Brown.