The age of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is no longer a distant promise—it’s here. Today’s early fleets of AVs point to a future in which harried commutes turn into productive hours, jammed intersections into orchestrated traffic flows, and all roads into safer corridors. In this edition of The Next Normal, we explore the possibilities, challenges, and choices that will shape the driverless future.

The view to 2040 and beyond

‘Rush hour won’t exist anymore’

AVs stand to transform our cities as well as our daily routines. Listen to six McKinsey experts—Ali Rizvi, Emily Shao, Kersten Heineke, Mingyu Guan, Philipp Kampshoff, and Timo Möller—reflect on the future of autonomous mobility.

2040: A day in the autonomous life

By 2040, autonomous vehicles could be as commonplace as any household appliance—shaping how families organize their days and how cities are designed.
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The AI revolution

Autonomous driving is shifting from rigid, rule-based systems to more sophisticated AI systems that can learn and respond with human-like nuance, creating a driving experience that is smarter, more responsive, and all-around better.
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Changing cities and infrastructure

AV integration could reshape urban spaces, reducing the need for parking and easing congestion. This transformation would also open the door to new transport modes such as shared shuttles and aerial mobility.
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Trust, safety, and consumer adoption

A single ride often changes a rider’s attitude toward AVs from cautious to enthusiastic. But broad uptake hinges on proving that AVs can outperform human drivers in every scenario.
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The next generation of talent

With no established playbook, the AV industry needs problem-solvers—people who can bridge hardware, software, and large-scale operations—to bring autonomous mobility to scale.
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Hear more from our experts
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The real promise of shared autonomy lies in reshaping urban mobility—not necessarily replacing the private car.

Ani Kelkar
Partner, Boston
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By embedding generative AI directly into AVs, automakers can deliver safer driving, smarter in-cabin experiences, and real-time personalization.

Martin Kellner
Partner, Munich
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Charting the future

AV costs are likely to decline sharply

Operating costs for AV fleets may soon drop dramatically. The biggest savings are expected to come from longer lifespans for autonomous-driving systems, improved operations, and less need for R&D. Together, these advances could reduce the cost per mile for AVs from more than $8 today to just over $1.

That steep decline in costs could accelerate real-world adoption. Better per-mile economics could make AVs more attractive in commercial fleets, ridesharing services, and logistics networks. As the economics improve, AVs may more quickly move from pilot programs to scalable offerings, changing how people and goods get around.

Read more about the economics of autonomous mobility

Meet our experts

Ali Rizvi
PartnerBay Area - San Francisco
Drives accelerated growth with global clients by transforming product and engineering organizations to thrive in the software-defined...
Ani Kelkar
PartnerBoston
Advises incumbents, investors, and disruptors in the automotive, aerospace, energy, industrial automation, and robotics sectors...
Emily Shao
PartnerDetroit
Pioneers the transition to the future of mobility, navigating organizations through disruptions in technology, business models,...
Kersten Heineke
PartnerFrankfurt
Coleads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility and serves clients across the automotive industry, incumbent industries, mobility...
Martin Kellner
PartnerMunich
Advises clients on strategy and growth topics with a focus on automotive software and autonomous driving
Mingyu Guan
Senior PartnerShenzhen
Drives performance and profitability for leading automakers, dealer groups, and mobility service providers
Philipp Kampshoff
Senior Partner and Global Coleader, Automotive & AssemblyHouston
Global coleader of the Automotive & Assembly Practice, serving clients along the entire mobility value chain
Timo Möller
PartnerCologne
Coleads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility with a focus on the strategic and operational questions around disruptive trends;...

Connect with the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility®

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This edition of The Next Normal explores the possibilities, challenges, and choices that will shape the driverless future.

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Acknowledgments

This edition of The Next Normal is a collaborative effort led by McKinsey Global Publishing, with contributions from Charlie Matthes, Dan Spector, Dana Sand, Eileen Hannigan, Jonathon Rivait, Katie Shearer, Laura Mercedes, Monica Toriello, Nathan Wilson, Philip Mathew, Stephanie d'Arc Taylor, Stephen Landau, and Victor Cuevas.