McKinsey Health Institute

The new case for brain health: Scaling interventions for health and economic growth

| Interactive
Brad Herbig Erica Coe Kana Enomoto  Shekhar Saxena
Opportunities exist to reduce the global burden of brain health and noncommunicable diseases, fostering healthier communities and stronger economies.

Scaling cost-effective interventions to prevent, treat, and help people recover from brain health conditions, including mental, neurological, and substance use disorders, could avert 267 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally by 2050. What does that mean for transforming lives—and economies? The McKinsey Health Institute (MHI), in partnership with the Clinton Health Access Initiative, has developed a refreshed set of insights and interactive tools (see sidebars “Approach and methodology” and “Definitions”), including a new perspective on the economic impact of scaling interventions across regions.

Approach and methodology

The core disease burden analysis draws on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data suite to estimate the primary and associated disease burden of all mental health conditions. A further evidence review was conducted to identify estimates of the additional risk of developing non-mental-health, noncommunicable conditions for those with a prior mental health condition, covering all relevant condition pairs.

A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify relevant, proven, and scalable interventions for the included mental health conditions. Data were extracted from approximately 100 individual studies to estimate the effectiveness and current adoption rates of more than 100 condition intervention pairs.

To estimate the impact of disease burden reduction, health interventions were modeled sequentially on a year-over-year basis to quantify the potential reduction in mental health and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden over time, assuming a peak adoption rate of 90 percent, in line with The Kennedy Forum’s Alignment for Progress. Note that this aspirational assumption is meant to illustrate the art of the possible for scaling interventions over a 25-year time frame, assuming a gradual growth in adoption between 2025 and 2050.

The potential economic impact on GDP is estimated across multiple levers, including reductions in premature deaths, disability, and informal caregiver needs, as well as improvements in productivity and future earnings for children. These factors affect the size of the labor force and relative productivity stemming from the estimated mental health and NCD burden reduction.

Finally, a high-level estimate of implementation costs and the subsequent economic return is calculated at a global level, using estimates for cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, adjusted for country income archetype and intervention type.

Please see the technical appendix for more details on the methodology, data sources, and limitations.

This interactive dashboard allows users to dive deeper into the health and economic impact of scaling brain health interventions. This includes both the primary burden of conditions and the associated noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. This resource can be used to understand the state of brain health today, identify opportunities for action, and quantify benefits for both individual health and economic impact.

Definitions

Brain health: Encompasses mental, neurological, and substance use disorders, including the promotion of healthy brain function and the prevention and treatment of brain health conditions to help individuals thrive

Disease burden: The impact of a disease or health condition, combining both morbidity and premature mortality

Primary burden: The direct disease burden of a specific brain health condition

Associated noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden: The portion of NCD burden that encompasses the effects of preexisting brain health conditions, which increase the likelihood and severity of other NCDs

This work builds on the 2022 MHI and Healthy Brains Global Initiative report that underscored the substantial global burden of brain health conditions and the transformative potential of scaling proven interventions.

McKinsey Live Webinar promo - Brain health: Helping individuals, economies, and societies thrive in the age of AI

Brain health: Helping individuals, economies, and societies thrive in the age of AI

Join partners Erica Coe and Kana Enomoto from the McKinsey Health Institute for a conversation on the evolving brain health agenda, spanning mental health, neurological conditions, cognitive functioning, resilience, and healthy brain development across the lifespan. They will explore emerging opportunities to improve outcomes at scale, the economic opportunity from investing in prevention and early intervention, how employers are supporting brain health in the workplace, and the importance of strengthening brain capital—the combination of brain health and brain skills.

Register here
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