Aftershocks: Energy security beyond the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Available on-demand: Watch the launch of Aftershocks: Energy security beyond the Strait of Hormuz Crisis— a partnership between the McKinsey Global Institute and McKinsey’s Global Energy and Materials Practice that explores what the 2026 shock reveals about the resilience—and vulnerabilities—of the global energy system, what may come next, and the implications for companies navigating energy, supply-chain, and geopolitical risk.

The ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption is the latest—and largest—energy supply disruption. It may not be the last. Two-thirds of energy trade transits maritime chokepoints, and one-third crosses geopolitical lines. Ninety-five percent of people live in a region dependent on energy imports.

In this recording, Diego Hernandez Diaz, Mekala Krishnan, Luciano Di Fiori and Tiago Devesa discuss how:

• The energy system has proven to be more resilient than expected, mostly to temporary buffers and bypass pipelines for oil. Trade has rewired globally as China curtailed imports and the United States released inventories. The global economy has in many ways accommodated a drop in oil consumption—but unevenly, and the refining system is especially stressed.
• As the clock ticks, regions are pulling structural energy security levers. They range from electrification to coal, from rewiring trade to inventories. By 2030, responses underway or under discussion could offset 35 to 70 percent of the strait’s pre-crisis oil flows in the event of a future shock. But implementation is uncertain and comes at a price. New pipelines are the cheapest option, yet they divert rather than displace Gulf oil.
• It’s not just the Strait: With energy security there are no easy exits, but room to maneuver. Replacing imports with mature clean technologies could in theory displace up to nearly one-third of oil and gas use. But it can be slow and expensive, and it hits hard ceilings. As a result, a combination of new sources of supply, infrastructure to rewire trade, and inventories plays an important role.
• Energy security concerns are reshaping the business case for resilience. While measures require investment, they also can cut costs over time, enable business continuity, and drive growth. Decision makers should map their exposure across fuels, assets, and routes—and act on it, from improving energy efficiency to building flexibility in inputs, suppliers, and logistics.

Interested to learn more? Download the report this webinar is based on.