Understand and predict oil supply and demand

Our upstream team combines a rigorous analytical approach and proprietary modelling and benchmarking tools with deep market understanding to create unique perspectives. We help our clients navigate complex global economic and political factors, and understand their impact on oil demand, supply, and pricing dynamics.

Our Tools

Global Liquids Supply Model

Provides a granular and flexible outlook on the global liquids supply landscape until 2035 by bringing together McKinsey’s latest perspective on project-level production and economics, OPEC behavior, global energy demand, and global natural gas liquids (NGL) supply.

North American Supply Model

Forecasts basin-level production and cost across fuels and price scenarios to deliver intelligence around supply trends, basin competitiveness, pricing mechanisms, benchmarking, and capital-expenditure outlooks.

Our research


Global oil supply-and-demand outlook to 2040

– COVID-19 sent shocks through global oil markets, with oil demand and supply still struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels. Our outlook looks back at 2020 and presents our most-likely scenarios for oil demand, supply, and prices through 2040.

North American gas outlook to 2030

– Here’s what you need to know about the North American outlook for gas demand, supply, and price to 2030.

Related insights

Blog Post

Ending the zero-sum game in offshore drilling

– Re-establishing long-term profitability calls for bold steps to tackle the structural oversupply of active rigs
Blog Post

The path to recovery for US oil production

– Operators are likely to pursue a three-phase recovery that tracks the cost curve of activating production

How tapping connectivity in oil and gas can fuel higher performance

– Price and demand pressures in the oil and gas sector make the potential value embedded in advanced connectivity for exploration... and production more important than ever.

Institutionalizing drilling and completions efficiency in US unconventionals

– US shale drillers lead the world—but even so, investing to improve drilling efficiency, well design, and back-office functions... can deliver returns that far outweigh the costs.

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