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Upstream

Understand and predict oil supply and demand

Our upstream team combines a rigorous analytical approach and proprietary modelling and benchmarking tools with deep market understanding to create unique perspectives. We help our clients navigate complex global economic and political factors, and understand their impact on oil demand, supply, and pricing dynamics.

Our Tools

Global Liquids Supply Model

Provides a granular and flexible outlook on the global liquids supply landscape until 2035 by bringing together McKinsey’s latest perspective on project-level production and economics, OPEC behavior, global energy demand, and global natural gas liquids (NGL) supply.

North American Supply Model

Forecasts basin-level production and cost across fuels and price scenarios to deliver intelligence around supply trends, basin competitiveness, pricing mechanisms, benchmarking, and capital-expenditure outlooks.

Our research

Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2035

Oil supply and demand perspective with balances to 2035 and macro outlooks on global oil prices.
Report

North American gas outlook to 2030

– Here’s what you need to know about the North American outlook for gas demand, supply, and price to 2030.

Related insights

Blog Post

MARPOL 2020: An opportunity for OPEC to reclaim market share

– New MARPOL limits on sulfur content in marine fuels could result in 1-1.8MMb/d of additional refinery runs to produce higher volumes... of marine gasoil. Such additional crude demand could provide OPEC with an opportunity to reclaim market share.
Blog Post

5 key signposts that will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term

– Our updated title="Global Oil Outlook">Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2030 explores in detail the 5 signposts that will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term. This article provides a quick overview of each signpost, color-coded to reflect the positive or negative impact on oil prices.
Article

Low oil prices could support longer-term deepwater comeback

– As the supply of oil from sanctioned conventional projects dries up and legacy field decline rates accelerate, investment cuts... are likely to lead to a tighter oil market by 2020-21 and a supply gap of 13–16 MMb/d by 2030.

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