Downstream

Supporting companies in the downstream energy sector
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We help companies navigate complex markets through our industry experience, rigorous analytics, cutting-edge tools, and an unwavering commitment to impact.

We partner with companies in the downstream oil refining sector to help them navigate complexity, unlock value in a fast-evolving industry, and achieve ambitious goals. Our work spans strategy development to position businesses for long-term success, M&A support to drive growth and optimize portfolios, and operational transformation to enhance efficiency and performance.

Drawing on our digital strategy expertise, we assist clients with harnessing advanced technologies to improve decision-making and streamline operations. We also focus on organization design, ensuring that structures, processes, and talent are aligned to deliver sustainable results.

How we can help

We offer our expertise to downstream organizations through a range of strategies and models:
Strategy development
We help companies craft forward-looking strategies to position their businesses for long-term success in a dynamic and competitive market.
Mergers and acquisitions
We provide end-to-end support for M&A activities, from identifying opportunities to driving portfolio optimization and integration.
Operational transformation
We work with companies to enhance efficiency, improve performance, and unlock value through targeted operational improvements.
Digital strategies
We help companies use advanced technologies and data-driven insights to optimize decision-making and streamline operations.
Organization design
We align structures, processes, and talent to ensure organizations are equipped to deliver sustainable and impactful results.
AI application
We apply AI to help companies optimize refining processes, enhance maintenance strategies, and improve operational efficiency while ensuring they perform the necessary environmental impact assessments and regulatory reporting.

EXAMPES OF OUR WORK

Improving refinery system operations
Worked with a major US refinery to improve its system operations. The project identified over $1 billion in cost and margin improvements to be captured in less than 24 months. During the process, multiple operational practices and sites’ organizational cultures were transformed to foster sustainable and lasting change.
Identifying digital solutions
Helped a European downstream company (refining, product wholesale, and retail) identify digital solutions to improve refinery yield, energy efficiency, equipment reliability, and sales and retail margins—including building a digital platform to manage the integrated downstream value chain.
Supporting a major transformation
Helped a Southeast Asian integrated refining and petrochemical company through a major transformation over two years, which resulted in a performance improvement of more than $240 million, representing 80 percent of the targeted milestone. This was achieved within 75 percent of the stipulated implementation time.
Implementing a global holistic transformation for a major oil and gas company
Worked with a national oil company to design and implement a global transformation program across the value chain. This delivered a $1 billion to $3 billion improvement over the three-year program, capturing $2 billion in EBIT uplift. In parallel, a capability-building program was launched for the site’s chief transformation offices, driving culture change across facilities.
Improving sustainable sales
Supported a diagnostic and pilot project for increasing nonfuel sales and customer retention for a company in the Middle East. This included identifying opportunities to improve sales by 7 percent sustainably without major capital investments.
Achieving operational improvements
Benchmarked the efficiency of a European oil company’s supply chain to achieve significant operational improvements in its downstream logistics and marketing business. This resulted in more than $10 million in sustainable savings.
Defining a comprehensive business-building strategy
Worked with a large refinery to define a comprehensive strategy for building a major lubricant business, covering production configuration, sales, and marketing strategies for motor and industrial lubricants.
Refreshing an operating model and strategy
Helped a global base oil player redefine its operating model and growth strategy to double EBIT by 2030, positioning the company for sustainable margin improvement and market leadership. The program centralized operations to capture value and drove growth through strategic opportunities in products, technology, and operations.

Tech Solutions

McKinsey Energy Insights
Energy Solutions
Energy Solutions comprises our analytics and forecasting team, which combines global energy expertise, leading proprietary data, and cutting-edge modeling tools to deliver customized analysis, insights, and products.
Learn more
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Global Energy Perspective
The Global Energy Perspective is our granular, forward-looking demand model that covers 21 regions, 34 fuel types, and 25 sectors. It delivers customized scenarios and driver-based analyses of global and regional fuel demand in the medium and long term.
Learn more
Global Downstream
Global Downstream Model
Our Global Downstream Model is a country-level, global flows model that provides granular outlooks on regional downstream markets—including global and regional refining conditions; interregional crude, product, and intermediates flows; and regional product balances.
Oildesk
OilDesk
OilDesk is our equilibrium price calculator that generates crude and refined product price forecasts for major product markets across multiple demand scenarios.

Featured experts

Álvaro Bau
PartnerMadrid
Helps global energy companies develop growth strategies, implement advanced digital technologies, and achieve sustainability...
Julen Baztarrica Gobantes
PartnerMexico City
Serves energy-sector clients in the Americas and Europe, with a focus on strategy, digital, and operations in oil and gas and...
Jad Dib
PartnerDubai
Leads the Oil & Gas Practice in the Middle East, advising global energy leaders on upstream and downstream strategy, transformation,...
Tim Fitzgibbon
Senior ExpertHouston
Serves petroleum clients around the world, drawing on deep specialist expertise on topics related to refining strategy and petroleum...

Featured Insights

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Improving refinery margins through value chain optimization

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For North American downstream oil refineries, now is the time to improve value chain optimization through focused, management-led transformation efforts that could drive margin improvements.
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Four shifts redefining the oil and gas operating model of the future
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With rising global energy demand, continued investor expectations, and rapid technological evolution, the oil and gas industry may need to update its operating models to future-proof itself.
Global Energy Perspective 2025
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Global Energy Perspective 2025
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On the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the Global Energy Perspective, McKinsey launches its 2025 outlook with a comprehensive view of what lies ahead for the global energy system.
The case for doubling down on refinery reliability now
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The case for doubling down on refinery reliability now
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Refinery reliability issues have impacted product prices recently, creating both challenges and opportunities for refiners.
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Global Energy Perspective 2025
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Geopolitical uncertainty, shifting policies, and increasing demand for power are reshaping the energy landscape. In this year’s report, we present our updated view on what’s to come in the energy system.

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