Trade growth in advanced manufactured goods outpaced overall global trade growth of 6.5 percent in 2024–25. AI-related goods (such as hardware for developing and running the technology) led all sectors at roughly 37 percent annual growth. McKinsey’s Tiago Devesa, Jeongmin Seong, Olivia White, Nick Leung, and coauthors note that categories such as medical devices, electronics, and pharmaceuticals also exceeded the global average, while energy trade declined and automotive trade was flat. This divergence underscores how a narrow set of technology-intensive sectors, led by AI, is propelling global trade expansion even as traditional industries face headwinds.
Image description:
A bar chart shows the change in global trade, by sector, from 2024 to 2025 (annualized percent growth), with each sector’s width representing its share of global trade in 2024. AI-related goods exhibit the fastest growth at roughly 35–40%, despite a relatively small share of total trade. Other advanced manufacturing sectors—such as medical products, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery—show moderate growth, generally in the mid-single to low-double-digit range. Basic manufacturing sectors, including textiles, automotive, and contract manufacturing, grow more slowly and mostly below the global average. Resource sectors are mixed: metals and minerals show modest growth, while energy resource growth declined by ~10%. A horizontal reference line marks the global average trade growth of approximately 6.5% in 2025.
Source: ASEANstats; Comex Stat; Eurostat; General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China; Government of India Ministry of Commerce and Industry; International Trade Administration; Japan e-Stat; Korea Customs Service; Ministry of Economic Affairs (Taiwan, China); US Census Bureau; McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
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