Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2035
Energy Insights Outlook Overview

Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2035

“If current geopolitical uncertainties subside and OPEC+ further increase production in 2018–19, we could see market fundamentals resulting in average prices in the $60–$70 per barrel range until 2020”

Combining data and insights from a suite of energy market forecasting models, our outlook focuses on the impact of key drivers on the pace and timing of oil price recovery, the evolution of regional oil production, and the economic implications of long-term market trends for oil supply and demand.

Five potential disruptions to our base case

Speak to an expert about our upstream capabilities 

Executive Summary

The first half of 2018 saw tightening markets and higher oil prices. The recovery in shale drilling led US production to grow by 0.30 million barrels per day and while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) added another 0.45 million barrels per day to the global supply in June, the increase was unable to make up for outages in Venezuela and Libya. This tight market is likely to lead to further price volatility, especially when considering the potential for accelerating decline rates, off-take capacity constraints in the United States, and sanctions on Iran.

Medium-term outlook to 2022

In our medium-term outlook, we see average prices in the $60–70 per barrel range up until 2020, assuming that current geopolitical uncertainties subside and OPEC increases production. After 2020, we expect prices to remain in this range because of continued shale oil production in North America. Prices could potentially reach $80–90 per barrel should Venezuelan production drop, Iranian exports get disrupted, and effective OPEC spare capacity is reduced.

Long-term outlook to 2035

We expect growth in oil supply from OPEC, US shale oil, and some offshore basins to keep long-term prices at $65–75 per barrel. This outlook takes into account the anticipated decline in demand growth due to transport-sector demand peaking as a result of increasing fuel economy, widespread electrification, and reduced car ownership.

Want to receive updates from Energy Insights?