The Global Energy Perspective is produced by Energy Solutions by McKinsey, which is part of McKinsey’s Energy and Materials Practice, in close collaboration with the firm’s Industrials & Electronics and Sustainability Practices.
The global metals and mining industry is navigating a complex landscape in 2025, marked by a cyclical reset, geopolitical uncertainties, and the ongoing energy transition. Our latest Global Materials Perspective 2025 provides an in-depth analysis of these dynamics and identifies key opportunities for stakeholders.
Key Findings
- The industry experienced a cyclical reset in 2024. Materials revenue slightly contracted in 2024 to about $6.7 trillion, with metals and mining revenues declining by 6% to $3 trillion. Despite this, profitability remained resilient at $1.3 trillion, with metals and mining accounting for $700 billion.
- The demand outlook through 2035 remains robust, driven by various sectors, with Asian countries accounting for more than 45% of demand growth across most commodities.
- Despite a slowdown in battery-electric-vehicle sales and renewable energy adoption in 2024, the long-term demand for energy transition materials remains strong, with more than half of demand growth from 2024 to 2035 coming from materials such as copper, lithium and rare earth elements.
- New demand drivers are emerging. AI data centers could account for 3% of global copper demand by 2030; while the defense sector could account for 8% of copper, 4% of steel, and 2% of aluminum demand from NATO Europe countries by 2030.
- Supply remains geographically concentrated, and several key commodities face persistent constraints. With tariffs, incentives, and export barriers – importing nations are pushing stockpiles and strategic projects to strengthen resilience.
- Macroeconomic trends are showing increased market fragmentation: in 2000, the top ten metals and mining companies accounted for 60% of the market, but by 2015 that share fell to 30% and has stabilized since.
- Productivity has seen a modest rebound, driven by automation and efficiency gains. Since 2018, mining productivity has grown at 1% per annum, supported by the adoption of digital technologies. But challenges persist in complex mining operations, escalating costs, and labor shortages.
- Achieving a supply-demand balance by 2035 will require significant investments, estimated at $4.7 trillion in capital expenditures and 270 GW of additional power capacity and 350,000 new jobs globally.
Why This Matters
The Global Materials Perspective 2025 provides a pragmatic, data-driven fact base for stakeholders shaping the future of the materials sector – a systemwide view built on granular analysis of over 14,000 global assets across 15+ commodity value chains. It highlights that:
- Value pools are fundamentally shifting — earnings are migrating away from coal and steel toward gold, copper, and aluminium, reflecting a structural reallocation
- Geopolitical dynamics are reshaping supply chains — resource nationalism and protectionism are creating both constraints and opportunities that vary significantly by region and commodity
- New demand vectors are emerging beyond traditional drivers — opportunities include niche high-growth sectors such as digital infrastructure and defense, and circular value chains through scrap and recycling
- Productivity gains are becoming achievable again — after decades of decline, new technologies including gen AI, automation, and electrification are enabling a measurable productivity rebound that companies are already capturing
- Strategic positioning matters more than ever — with 30-50% of shareholder returns driven by operating decisions, success could depend on disciplined growth choices, technology adoption, capital productivity, and targeted sustainability efforts
As the 2025 report shows, the global materials industry remains structurally vital to two defining transformations of the decade – the energy transition and the rapid expansion of digital infrastructure. The choices made today in technology adoption and investment strategies will shape outcomes for decades to come. And while the Global Materials Perspective 2025 does not prescribe a single future, it lays out a range of plausible paths, helping stakeholders make informed decisions in a complex and evolving world.
For a deeper dive into key findings, what these insights mean for the future of materials, and how regions and sectors can navigate their unique transitions, watch the full webinar hosted by McKinsey experts below.