The Global Energy Perspective is produced by Energy Solutions by McKinsey, which is part of McKinsey’s Energy and Materials Practice, in close collaboration with the firm’s Industrials & Electronics and Sustainability Practices.
On the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the Global Energy Perspective, McKinsey launches its 2025 outlook with a comprehensive view of what lies ahead for the global energy system. In a context shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, shifting policy landscapes, and surging demand for power, the report outlines a set of plausible long-term scenarios: Slow Evolution, Continued Momentum, and Sustainable Transformation, and evaluates their implications for energy supply, demand, and emissions through mid-century.
Key Findings
1. Fossil Fuels Remain Central to the Global Energy Mix
Even in the most ambitious decarbonization scenarios, fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) are projected to account for 41–55 percent of global energy consumption by 2050. Natural gas emerges not as a mere bridging fuel, but as a long-term backbone, offering reliable, cost-effective energy while supporting grid balancing as renewables scale. Coal and oil, though declining, will continue to supply energy demand — especially where electrification is slower, or where heavy industry, aviation, and petrochemicals remain energy-intensive.
2. Demand Growth, Especially in Emerging Economies and Asia
Global energy demand is expected to rise, driven largely by emerging economies where population growth, rising affluence, and industrialization accelerate energy needs. In particular, Asia is forecast to contribute a disproportionate share of new demand. The shift from coal to gas for power generation in many countries supports natural-gas growth, even as some regions transition more aggressively to renewable power.
3. Low-Carbon Power Will Grow but Not Fast Enough to Guarantee 1.5 °C
Renewables, nuclear, hydrogen-ready gas, and other clean firm power sources are expected to gain share, and electricity demand could more than double by 2050, reflecting deepening electrification across transport, heavy industry, data centers, and buildings. Yet even under optimistic deployment assumptions, the pace of low-carbon growth is insufficient to keep global warming within 1.5 °C. All three scenarios point toward long-term warming between 1.9 °C and 2.7 °C by 2100.
4. No Single “Silver Bullet”: The Path Forward is Multi-Technological & Regionally Differentiated
The 2025 outlook underscores that there is no universal solution. Rather, successful transition will rely on a diverse mix — renewables, natural gas, nuclear, sustainable fuels, electrification — depending on local energy demand growth, industrial structure, resource endowments, and policy/regulatory frameworks. Regions will follow distinct trajectories, shaped by their economic context, infrastructure readiness, and energy security priorities.
5. Delays in Decarbonization Will Come at a Price, but Opportunities Remain
Achieving deep decarbonization will require acceleration in technology deployment, capital investment, and policy support. For sectors that are harder to decarbonize (heavy transport, industry, chemicals), adoption of sustainable fuels and cleaner energy carriers will be critical if cost-competitive and backed by stable regulation. Simultaneously, investing in grid infrastructure, flexible capacity, energy security, and storage solutions will be vital to accommodate rising power demand and volatile supply.
Why This Matters
The 2025 Global Energy Perspective provides a pragmatic, data-driven fact base for decision-makers whether in government, industry, or financial sectors. It reminds us that:
- The energy transition is not uniform progress depends heavily on regional circumstances.
- Even ambitious technological and policy shifts may not be enough to stay on the 1.5 °C pathway unless they are scaled rapidly and combined across sectors.
- Energy security, affordability, and reliability remain fundamental — especially for rapidly growing economies.
- The path to decarbonization will not be linear: fossil fuels, clean power, and sustainable energy carriers will coexist for decades.
- Strategic, long-term investments and policy frameworks are essential to navigate uncertainties and unlock new value pools.
As the 2025 report shows, the global energy system is at a crossroads. The choices made today in infrastructure, regulation, investment, and innovation will shape outcomes for decades to come. GEP 2025 does not prescribe a single future. Instead, it lays out a range of plausible paths, helping stakeholders make informed decisions in a world defined by complexity, diversity, and evolution.
Watch the full webinar to dive deep into the data and explore the scenarios in detail.