Where to play in CPG: A multi-lens approach to beat the market

Given today’s challenging economic environment in Latin America—including inflation, shrinking margins, low economic growth forecasts, and a reduced willingness to spend—many companies are tempted to deprioritize growth. However, a recent McKinsey article showed that growth is even more important in times of economic uncertainty, and those companies that grow during downturns often outperform their peers when the economy recovers.1Resilience for sustainable, inclusive growth,” McKinsey, June 7, 2022.

Of course, growth is never guaranteed. So the question remains: how can companies increase their odds of outperforming in today’s market? McKinsey research shows that consumer goods companies that use a combination of four lenses—consumer understanding, category and channel value pools, competitive understanding, and capabilities to win—are 1.2 times more likely to mine valuable insights on where to play than those that use only a single perspective.2A multi-lens approach to finding growth in consumer goods,” McKinsey, July 26, 2023.

These insights can be further explored using AI tools and techniques—many of which are powered by machine learning (ML)3—at a more granular level to generate forward-looking, actionable next steps. This article shows how predictive tools can be used to develop a “growth road map” that includes estimates of the financial upside and the capabilities needed. It also provides examples of use cases in Latin America, many of which significantly increased TSR.

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