When populations age

April 21, 2026Demographic shifts over the past 25 years have reshaped global health and are expected to accelerate over the next 25. All this week, we explore how health trends will likely evolve due to aging populations and the interventions that could reduce disease burden worldwide.

Disease burden is set to evolve differently across income archetypes, as demographic shifts accelerate worldwide, note McKinsey’s  Alex Beauvais, Brad Herbig, Matt Wilson, and Pooja Kumar. Over the past 25 years, populations globally have aged, life expectancy has risen, and fertility rates have declined. These trends are projected to become more pronounced over the next 25 years, transforming the composition and distribution of the working-age population (typically aged 15–64). By 2050, the workforce in high- and upper-middle-income countries is projected to shrink by 5–7 percent but grow 9–12 percent in low-income countries (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (LICs). This shift, combined with continued population growth in LICs and LMICs, will alter global health needs and how countries foster healthier populations and economic productivity.

Image description: A chart highlights a widening demographic divide across income groups: by 2050, high-income countries have markedly aging, top-heavy populations with shrinking working-age cohorts, while low- and lower-middle-income countries remain younger, with broader bases, even as fertility gradually declines. Most global population growth is concentrated in lower-middle and upper-middle-income countries, shifting the center of future labor supply and demand for services to these regions. Source: Global Burden of Disease Database, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2021 (used with permission, all rights reserved). End of image description.

To read the report, see “The health of nations: Stronger health, stronger economies,” February 17, 2026.