The commercial aerospace supplier sector has broadly recovered financially since the pandemic. Yet, shareholder returns have become increasingly uneven, with top-performing companies significantly outperforming the rest of the market since 2022. McKinsey’s Kate Siegel, Ryan Brukardt, and coauthors note that the widening gap between first- and third-quartile performers suggests that execution determines which suppliers pull ahead, with high performers demonstrating stronger commercial capabilities.
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A dot-range chart illustrates that TSR performance among commercial aerospace suppliers has rebounded but become more uneven over time, comparing TSR compound annual growth rate distributions for OEMs, super tier-1 suppliers, engine OEMs, aerostructures suppliers, tier-2 non-aerostructures suppliers, and tier-3 materials suppliers across 2012–19, 2019–22, and 2022–25. Earlier periods show modest returns with relatively narrow spreads, followed by improved and more consistently positive performance in 2019–22, while 2022–25 shows significantly wider gaps between lower- and upper-quartile performers, with top-quartile TSR reaching ~55% for OEMs, ~65% for aerostructures, and 80 % for tier-3 materials.
Note: This image description was completed with the assistance of Writer, a gen AI tool.
Source: S&P Capital IQ; McKinsey analysis.
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To read the article, see “A commercial breakthrough for commercial aerospace suppliers,” April 10, 2026.