Executive optimism about the global economy, which had been on an upward trend, reversed sharply in late February, according to results of a McKinsey Global Survey. Economic sentiment was at its most positive since December 2025, with a growing share of leaders feeling upbeat about both current and future conditions, note McKinsey’s Arvind Govindarajan, Shubham Singhal, Jeffrey Condon, and coauthors. That optimism faded, however, as global conditions shifted: The share of executives reporting worsening economic conditions doubled since February 28.
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Executive sentiment on the global economy was relatively positive through late 2025 but turned sharply more pessimistic following a late-February 2026 geopolitical escalation.
Two line charts show survey responses across four periods from late August 2025 to early March 2026. In the first chart (current conditions compared with six months ago), the share of respondents saying conditions are worse declines from about half in late August to roughly one-third by late February, while the share saying conditions are better rises into the mid-30% range. In the final survey period, the share reporting worse conditions jumps to the mid-50% range, and the share reporting better conditions falls to around 10%.
In the second chart (expected conditions over the next six months), expectations improve modestly through late 2025, with more respondents anticipating improvement than deterioration. By late February 2026, optimism softens, and in the final survey period the share expecting worse conditions rises to about half, while the share expecting better conditions drops to roughly 20%.
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Source: McKinsey Global Surveys on economic conditions, 2025–26.
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To read the survey, see “Economic conditions outlook, March 2026,” March 27, 2026.