Energy’s latest chokepoint

October 1, 2026The Strait of Hormuz crisis in 2026 stands apart from other major energy supply disruptions. At its peak, the closure of the Strait disrupted 14 percent of global oil and gas supply, more than double the relative size of the 1970s oil shocks and over six times the peak impact in 2022 of the war in Ukraine in 2022. Yet the energy system has proven more resilient than feared, cushioned by inventories, bypass pipelines, and other shock absorbers built up after past crises. But those measures have limits: for example, inventories are thinning and pipelines have been exposed to disruption, caution McKinsey’s Tiago Devesa, Mekala Krishnan, Humayun Tai, and their coauthors. Decision-makers who understand the current disruption and its likely aftershocks will be better positioned to navigate what comes next.

Bubble chart of energy supply disruptions with two categories: ongoing disruptions and past disruptions. Horizontal axis: disruption duration, 0–500 weeks. Vertical axis: peak supply disruption, 0–15 percent of global oil and gas supply. Bubble size: average energy supply disrupted over the full event (million tons of oil equivalent per week). The 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption is largest at 13.8 percent over 26 weeks. Past events range from about 0.9 to 6.6 percent. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ongoing from 2022, is 2.1 percent over 236 weeks. On the right, a vertical stacked bar chart shows pre-crisis Strait of Hormuz energy flows: 91 percent oil (crude and refined products) and 9 percent gas.

To read the report, see “Aftershocks: Energy security beyond the Strait of Hormuz crisis,” September 17, 2026.