As we mark the 10th anniversary of our Global Energy Perspective, I have been reflecting on what this past decade of analysis has taught us and more importantly, what it means for the road ahead–and for sustainability leaders like you. When we began this work, the optimism following the Paris Agreement was palpable. There was a strong belief that renewables could, almost single-handedly, transform the global energy system. Today, our view has matured. The transition is no less urgent, but it is far more complex and rooted in the economic and geopolitical realities we now face.
What we’ve learned
- Economics, not policy alone, drives transition: While policy and regulation have played a role, the past decade has demonstrated that affordability and reliability remain key defining factors. Energy solutions must be economically pragmatic to scale.
- There is no silver bullet. Decarbonization is a system-wide challenge. It requires coordinated shifts across supply (oil, gas, sustainable fuels, power) and demand (heavy industry, data centers, transport). Each sector has unique dynamics, and together they underscore the need for a holistic view.
- Geopolitics is reshaping the landscape. Energy is no longer just about supply and demand fundamentals. The geopolitics of interdependent supply chains, access to critical equipment, and regional energy security now play a central role in shaping strategies. Especially in a world not just of transition, but addition of energy.
- Emerging markets will redefine demand. India, Africa, and other fast-growing regions may represent the biggest “known unknowns.” If India were to increase its energy intensity at a rate similar to China’s, global demand could be understated by as much as 16% over the next 25 years, a profound shift.
Energy transition: Actions for sustainability leaders navigating today’s uncertainty
Clients often ask me how to prepare for a future where forecasting political, economic, and technological shifts feels nearly impossible. My advice is straightforward: you cannot predict with certainty, but you can prepare with resilience.
Based on the lessons we’ve drawn this year, I would underscore four imperatives that should guide leadership decisions:
- Anchor strategies in economic reality: Focus on solutions that balance decarbonization goals with affordability and reliability and are resilient to a variety of economic/political realities.
- Plan for surging electricity demand: Data centers, industrial electrification, and new forms of mobility will strain power systems. Businesses should plan for sustained growth in electricity demand (in the right geographies).
- Invest in clean power: Nuclear, geothermal, and hydropower—while potentially costly—will become increasingly important complements to the variability of renewables in achieving near-zero emissions.
- Build resilience into supply chains: Geographic diversification and scenario planning are now competitive advantages. Leaders must reframe “resilience” as a core strategic priority, not a contingency.
Be sure to read our new Global Energy Perspective for more on these actions. And I'd love to hear your thoughts on these themes and explore how we can work together to address your current challenges. If you're interested in continuing the conversation, please reach out.