Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey

Turkey represents one of the most advanced mobility ecosystems in the region. It is, therefore, not surprising that the shared and electric mobility segment have recently gained traction, too. In this article, we assess the mobility market in Turkey and provide a sizing of todays and 2030 mobility landscape, including a deep dive on shared micromobility. The latter is based on our publication “Micromobility’s 15,000-mile checkup” from 2019 (link), where we estimated the market potential for e-kickscooters, bicycles, and mopeds across the United States, Europe, and China to reach 300 to 500 billion USD by 2030.

The total addressable mobility market in Turkey represents around 55 to 65 billion USD today

The total addressable mobility market (TAM) in Turkey is worth around 55 to 65 billion USD today, or roughly 700 to 710 billion in total passenger kilometers traveled (PMT).

Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
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Istanbul, a metropolis with almost 16 million inhabitants, leads the mobility demand and constitutes around 20% of total PMT. Around 80 cities and rural areas account for the remaining ~80% of total PMT, whilst peripheral cities and rural areas take the largest share 1 .

Private vehicles and public transport (including public bus, metro, and train) are the main modes of transport; however, their importance varies by city archetype: whilst public transport is relevant across all archetypes (mainly due to comparatively low fare prices), private vehicle usage is particularly high in large metropolises with a high GDP per capita (e.g., Istanbul or Ankara). Consequently, private vehicles account for a TAM of around 230 to 250 billion passenger kilometers today (equivalent to around 28 to 32 billion USD), whilst public transit adds another 270 to 290 billion PMT (equivalent to around 10 to 15 billion USD).

Micromobility, including traditional and electric bicycles, mopeds, and kickscooters, is mainly present in emerging and peripheral cities (e.g., Adana, Diyarbakır), where it is almost entirely available as privately owned mode. Shared micromobility, on the other side, still plays a minor role today and is estimated to be a 20 to 30 million USD market, wherein Istanbul accounts for ~60%. Shared e-kickscooters are the dominating mode with ~80% share, whilst shared bicycles cover ~15% and shared mopeds ~5%.

Taxis are present in almost all Turkish cities, constituting around 5% of total PMT, which translates into a TAM of 9 to 12 billion USD today. Compared to this, car rental and carsharing (including station-based, free-floating and peer-to-peer carsharing) are usually only available in large urban and touristic areas and thus account for less than 0.1% of total PMT, implying a TAM of currently 1 to 3 billion USD.

The mobility market in Turkey may reach 80 to 90 billion USD in the disruptive scenario by 2030

Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
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To estimate the mobility development across Turkey, we introduce 5 different city archetypes and cluster the 81 Turkish cities and rural areas along them.

Our modeling of the future mobility development of these city archetypes is based on McKinsey's proprietary Mobility Market Model (M3), which follows a four-step approach to forecast the mobility demand until 2030. In the first step, we determine a “no disruption” PMT baseline by extrapolating today's archetype-specific mode splits using forecasts on GDP, population and age group distribution. Secondly, we introduce assumptions on how consumer behavior and regulation might change the baseline across three different scenarios. The modeled consumer effects are based on our proprietary ACES Consumer Survey, whilst the regulatory effects are drawn upon over 70 case studies on regulations and their impact on the modal mix across more than 25 cities globally. In a third step, we reallocate the PMTs which are gained or lost by certain modes as a direct result of the scenario disruptions to other modes of transport, factoring in their availability and cost. Finally, we convert the PMT into USD revenues by considering Turkey-specific pricing per kilometer.

We model three different scenarios to investigate the impact from macroeconomic developments, investments, consumer attitudes, and regulation. The three scenarios describe the potential development if (1) the status quo today is maintained by 2030 and Turkish cities show a similar shared micromobility development as comparable European and Asian cities, (2) if cities invest in public and micromobility infrastructure and introduce measures to de-incentivize private car usage, and (3) if cities lift their current restrictions on shared mobility.

  1. In our “status quo scenario”, we expect regulators to leave mobility development in Turkey largely unchanged, which implies that the development of private vehicle usage remains unrestricted and that cities postpone their financial support for public transit and micromobility infrastructure. As a result, our model estimates that the total addressable mobility market might reach around 790 to 830 billion passenger kilometers traveled by 2030, or a TAM of 65 to 75 billion USD. Thereof, private vehicle PMT are expected to increase to 290 to 310 billion kilometers, or 35 to 40 billion USD (+20% as compared to today), mainly due to an increasing population and GDP per capita. On the other side, public transit, private micromobility as well as other car-based shared modes such as taxi or car rental and carsharing are expected to remain largely stagnant until 2030. This is because consumers are assumed to be unwilling to change from their private vehicles to alternative – shared – modes of transport. For shared micromobility, we suppose that Turkish cities reach an equally high consumer adoption as Madrid, Milan, Rome, Bangalore, Taipei, and Singapore do today. We chose these cities as benchmarks for Istanbul and other large Turkish metropolises due to their similarities in terms of city size, topography, weather and mobility behavior. Consequently, our model estimates that shared micromobility might hear a TAM of around 5 to 10 billion USD in 2030 (factor ~270 as compared to today).
    Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
    We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com
    Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
    We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com
  2. In the “city investment scenario”, we expect that Istanbul and other large Turkish cities take active measures to reduce private car usage, for instance by removing parking spots and introducing emission zones. We also assume that regulators implement the currently announced financial support for public transit and micromobility infrastructure, and that consumers are seeking to shift from private vehicles to either public transit or shared modes of transport. In this scenario, the total mobility TAM in Turkey is expected to increase to around 840 to 880 billion PMT, or 75 to 85 billion USD by 2030. The growth is assumed to be driven by increases in public transit and taxi ridership, which are modeled to account for a TAM of around 15 to 20 billion USD (around +40% as compared to today), or 13 to 16 billion USD, respectively (around +30% as compared to today). Furthermore, shared micromobility is expected to be ~40% larger than in the status quo case and reach around 8 to 12 billion USD in 2030 (factor ~340 as compared to today), mainly fostered by investments into bicycle infrastructure. As compared to our status quo case, the growth of private vehicle TAM between today and 2030 is dampened; this is because the above-mentioned regulatory and consumer effects are expected to offset the stimulation induced by population and GDP growth. Consequently, we model the overall market potential to increase only slightly to around 250 to 270 billion PMT, or 30 to 34 billion USD by 2030 (around +5% as compared to today).
    Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
    We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com
    Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
    We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com
  3. In addition to the measures above, the “disruptive scenario” assumes that cities lift their current restrictions on shared mobility, which includes the removal of vehicle caps for shared micromobility operators and the legalization of ride-hailing services. In this case, consumers may be even more willing to switch to shared (micro)mobility options given their higher availability. In this scenario, we expect the mobility TAM in Turkey to reach around 80 to 90 billion USD by 2030. Ride-hailing services might contribute to a substantial increase (around 15 to 20 billion USD), since they are assumed to cannibalize around 50 percent of taxi trips, given they may be cheaper and more convenient. The car rental and carsharing market is also expected to increase to a TAM of 3 to 5 billion USD, assuming that consumers (partially) switch from privately owned vehicles to self-serve mobility services. Private vehicle growth, therefore, might have reached a saturation point and even decrease by 2030, since city measures and a changing consumer behavior are expected to overlay PMT increases due to population and GDP growth. In this case, the private vehicle TAM is expected to decline to around 180 to 200 billion PMT, which translates into a 21 to 25 billion USD market (around -20% as compared to today). Shared micromobility is modeled to have a market potential of 10 to 15 bn USD (equivalent to around 15 to 25 billion PMT, a factor ~430 as compared to today). Considering the total Turkish population of around 84 million inhabitants, this might correspond to roughly 150 USD of annual spending per capita for shared micromobility in 2030, or around 35% of the average mobility spending of a Turkish citizen today (i.e., ~411 USD).
    Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
    We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com
    Sizing the mobility market opportunity in Turkey
    We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Please email us at: McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com

Shared micromobility could save CO2 emissions comparable to those of around 180 thousand Turkish residents by 2030

Of the 15 to 25 billion PMT traveled by shared micromobility in the “disruptive scenario” mentioned above, almost 50 percent would have used car-based mobility if shared micromobility were not available (incl. private vehicle, taxi, carsharing and ride-hailing) 2 . The remaining trips would have come from non-car-based mobility such as public transit, private micromobility and walking. Considering the cannibalization of car-based mobility, shared micromobility could save an estimated 850 to 900 thousand tons of carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions per year, which corresponds to the annual CO2 emissions of around 180 thousand Turkish citizens 3 .

Besides shared micromobility, we expect electrification in Turkey to emerge amongst all modes of transport until 2030. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration may reach 40 to 50 percent of new vehicle sales in 2030 in our disruptive scenario. This includes private, taxi, ride-hailing, and car rental/ carsharing vehicles (see our recent publication on “Why the automotive future is electric”) 4 . Small-format EVs such as microcars could even accelerate this development, since they are often more affordable than comparable vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE), given their small battery size. Based on a 40 to 50 percent EV sales penetration, we expect that 6 to 8% of the vehicle parc in Turkey could be electrified by 2030.

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