The Philippines economy in 2024: Stronger for longer?

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The Philippines ended 2023 on a high note, being the fastest growing economy across Southeast Asia with a growth rate of 5.6 percent—just shy of the government's target of 6.0 to 7.0 percent.1 Should projections hold, the Philippines is expected to, once again, show significant growth in 2024, demonstrating its resilience despite various global economic pressures (Exhibit 1).2

The Philippine economy continues to show resilience, the fastest growing across Southeast Asia in 2023.

The growth in the Philippine economy in 2023 was driven by a resumption in commercial activities, public infrastructure spending, and growth in digital financial services. Most sectors grew, with transportation and storage (13 percent), construction (9 percent), and financial services (9 percent), performing the best (Exhibit 2).3 While the country's trade deficit narrowed in 2023, it remains elevated at $52 billion due to slowing global demand and geopolitical uncertainties.4Looking ahead to 2024, the current economic forecast for the Philippines projects a GDP growth of between 5 and 6 percent.

Most sectors are growing, with transportation, construction, and financial services recording highest growth.

Inflation rates are expected to temper between 3.2 and 3.6 percent in 2024 after ending 2023 at 6.0 percent, above the 2.0 to 4.0 percent target range set by the government.5

For the purposes of this article, most of the statistics used for our analysis have come from a common thread of sources. These include the Central Bank of the Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); the Department of Energy Philippines; the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP); and the Philippines Statistics Authority.

The state of the Philippine economy across seven major sectors and themes

In the article, we explore the 2024 outlook for seven key sectors and themes, what may affect each of them in the coming year, and what could potentially unlock continued growth.

Financial services

The 2024 outlook for financial services shows growth stabilizing, with financial inclusion and digital adoption increasing.
Digital disruptors are spearheading the adoption of digital financial services.

Energy and Power

The outlook for energy and power shows positive growth for 2024.
Large-scale renewable development could be enabled by green energy auctions.


Growth in the healthcare sector may slow in 2024.
Players will need to navigate a complex landscape of pent-up demand and health system reforms.

Consumer and retail

Growth in the consumer and retail sector is expected to remain stable in 2024.
Inflation from rising commodity prices is currently the top concern among Filipino consumers.


The manufacturing sector could be affected by various changes, but it is likely to see growth.
The manufacturing sector’s aspiration to 2028 relies on Industry 4.0 initiatives and improving competitiveness in priority sectors.

Information technology business process outsourcing

The information technology business process outsourcing sector is in line to reach its long-term growth targets.
Hybrid work can serve as a positive catalyst for the industry and provide net benefit to the country.


The Philippines can act on five potential opportunities to address climate risks and catalyze green growth.

The Philippine economy: Three scenarios for growth

There are three growth scenarios for the Philippines.

Focusing on factors that could unlock growth in its seven critical sectors and themes, while adapting to the macro-economic scenario that plays out, would allow the Philippines to materialize its growth potential in 2024 and take steps towards achieving longer-term, sustainable economic growth.

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