According to the McKinsey Global Institute’s annual and September 2026 quarterly updates on geopolitics and the geometry of global trade, trade is not shrinking. Nor is the world less interconnected. US and Chinese import and export figures reached new highs. Meanwhile, the trade map is shifting significantly. Direct US–China trade fell by around 30 percent last year, but the United States replaced about two-thirds of that gap with other suppliers, and more than $165 billion in trade shifted away from the US–China corridor rather than disappearing.
For more, see Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2026 update, Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: September 2026 update, and As the world order turns, leading companies are keeping pace. Here’s how.