What it would take for US schools to fully recover from COVID-19

Most K–12 students in the United States have returned to the classroom and to a semblance of a normal learning environment. Yet they continue to battle challenges related to the pandemic. Our analysis shows that nationwide, an estimated 17 million students have more than half a year of pandemic-related learning delay, 16 million students who need mental-health support are not receiving it, and 15 million students are chronically absent.¹Defined as missing more than 10 percent of school days in a year. These challenges are interconnected and mutually reinforcing: students who are not in a mental state conducive to learning or are simply not present in school cannot participate in learning recovery interventions. Therefore, the three challenges should likely be tackled together—and soon.

At the same time, districts are under extraordinary pressure—pressure to deliver results for students, many of whom have missed significant learning milestones, and pressure to do so with limited (and potentially diminishing) funds, with the Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief Fund (ESSER) funding window closing by September 2024. As districts look hard at their budgets, they need to understand how to prioritize investments in proven interventions to address the interconnected challenges students are facing.

Below, we outline these three challenges, examples of bright spots for each, and what it might take for states, districts, and philanthropies to scale interventions to reach a greater proportion of students in need (see sidebar, “Looking beyond ESSER to fund interventions”).

Prevailing student challenges and bright spots

Learning delays, diminished mental health, and absenteeism present real challenges for today’s students. Schools have an opportunity to address them by applying lessons learned from existing bright spots.

Learning delays

More than 17 million students nationwide have experienced more than half a year of pandemic-related learning delay (Exhibit 1).²Number of students with more than 4.5 months (half a school year) of learning delay, calculated by comparison of 2019 and 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scores for math and reading. See “NAEP Data Explorer,” Nation’s Report Card, accessed June 12, 2023. Without interventions to support their recovery, each student could lose an estimated $54,000 to $69,000 in lifetime earnings.³Lifetime earnings loss per student calculated based on research conducted by Stanford professor Eric A. Hanushek. See Eric A. Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann, “The economic impacts of learning losses,” OECD, September 2020.

The bright spots. Several states and districts have seen accelerated rates of learning recovery after adopting high-quality instructional materials (HQIM) and aligned professional development; providing high-quality, high-intensity tutoring⁴Refers to tutoring delivered at a maximum student–teacher ratio of four to one delivered either three times weekly for a sustained period or during intensive weeklong or multiweek programs with trained teachers; see Matthew Kraft et al., Accelerating student learning with high-dosage tutoring, EdResearch for Recovery, February 2021.; and extending the school year through summer or intensive-learning academies.

HQIM paired with high-quality aligned professional development have demonstrated effectiveness in raising students’ state assessment scores. And given that HQIM are comparable in cost with low-efficacy materials (excluding the cost of switching), they are budget neutral. Nebraska and Louisiana saw significant improvements in their students’ math and reading scores after adopting high-quality curriculums. Nebraska used ESSER II funding to provide free access to Zearn Math, a digital learning platform, for all public and nonpublic elementary and middle schools.⁵“New study shows large gains in math learning among Nebraska students,” Zearn, September 22, 2022. More than 9,000 educators in nearly 500 schools in Nebraska used Zearn Math in the 2020–21 and 2021–22 academic years. Students who used it consistently saw their math scores increase at up to 2.5 times the rate of students who did not.⁶“Across student subgroups and all levels of proficiency, Nebraska students experience large gains in math learning with Zearn,” Zearn, September 2022. Louisiana, after using a portion of its ESSER funding to invest in HQIM in the way of literacy screeners and science of reading curriculums, saw an increase of more than two points in fourth-grade National Assessment of Educational Progress reading scores in 2022 compared with 2019 (in contrast to a three-point decline in national fourth-grade reading scores between 2019 and 2022). The state anticipates an increase of more than ten points by 2027.⁷State plan for the American Rescue Plan Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief Fund, US Department of Education, April 21, 2021; “Louisiana shows country’s largest gains on Nation’s Report Card,” Louisiana Department of Education, October 24, 2022; Supporting reading foundations in upper elementary, Louisiana Department of Education, August 29, 2022.

Meanwhile, districts across Tennessee and the Saint Paul Public Schools in Minnesota are seeing noticeable student academic gains as a result of high-quality tutoring. The State of Tennessee is addressing shortages of qualified tutors by releasing playbooks to help districts partner with community organizations to launch tutoring programs and provide tutors with training.⁸2022–2023 TN All Corp training for aspiring and alternative educators, Tennessee Accelerating Literacy & Learning Corps, Tennessee Department of Education, accessed June 11, 2023. About 50,000 Tennessee students participated in tutoring programs in the first year, resulting in one-third of a year of academic growth on average among students in kindergarten through second grade.⁹“2020 Tennessee Tutoring Corps pilot results,” Tennessee Tutoring Corps, accessed June 11, 2023; Sara White et al., “Early lessons from implementing high-impact tutoring at scale,” National Student Support Accelerator, 2021; “TN ALL Corps,” Tennessee Department of Education, accessed June 11, 2023. Saint Paul Public Schools budgeted $1.8 million toward the WINN (What I Need Now) program, which pairs struggling elementary school students with top reading teachers. On average, third-grade WINN students have experienced a 60 percent increase in state assessment scores, compared with a 40 percent increase among nonparticipants.¹⁰Beth Hawkins, “‘Miles ahead’ of other districts: Using new dashboard, St. Paul tracks learning recovery spending—and adjusts programs on the fly,” The 74, December 13, 2022; “ARP budget dashboard,” Saint Paul Public Schools, accessed June 11, 2023.

While we are still waiting on quantifiable postpandemic results from summer and intensive-learning academies, prepandemic efforts showed positive outcomes. For example, before the pandemic, Lawrence Public Schools in Massachusetts launched Acceleration Academies to provide supplemental intensive instruction and tutoring to students during school vacations, pairing struggling students with highly effective teachers in small-group settings (with a student–teacher ratio of approximately ten to one). The program saw a 17 percent increase in median Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System math scores over the first three years.¹¹“Acceleration Academies/Sontag Prize in Education,” Lynch Foundation, accessed June 11, 2023; David J. Deming, Joshua S. Goodman, and Beth E. Schueler, “Can states take over and turn around school districts? Evidence from Lawrence, Massachusetts,” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, June 2017, Volume 39, Number 2.

Mental health

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated preexisting mental-health challenges in youth. From 2020 to 2021, 42 percent of high school students reported experiencing persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, and 10 percent reported having attempted suicide (compared with 31 percent and 7 percent in 2017, respectively).¹²Youth Risk Behavior Survey: Data summary & trends report 2011–2021, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, February 2023. Currently, an estimated 17.4 million K–12 students have mental-health needs, but only 1.1 million students could be served in school based on current mental-health provider capacity.¹³Mental-health needs have been calculated using state-level data on the number of K–12 children and percentage of children self-reported as experiencing mental-health issues from the National Survey of Children’s Health; student ability to be served has been calculated using the assumption that one mental-health provider can serve 50 students a year (five students in a group session, five groups served by a provider per semester, two semesters per school year), multiplied by the number of providers available per state (school-based provider data from state report cards featured in the 2022 Hopeful Futures Campaign). This means more than 16 million students with mental-health needs are unserved in schools.¹⁴A portion of these students may be served by out-of-school providers. While data is still emerging about mental-health needs in 2023, anecdotal evidence suggests that there has been limited improvement more than a year after students returned to fully in-person learning.¹⁵Michael Elsen-Rooney, “As mental health toll on NYC educators mounts, schools scramble to offer support,” Chalkbeat New York, March 13, 2023.

The bright spots. Interventions in student mental health exist along a continuum, ranging from preventive supports offered to all students (tier one) to acute interventions offered to the subset of students in greatest need (tier three). Bright spots have emerged across this continuum.

Evidence shows that increasing availability and access to mental-health services and trained professionals helps prevent avoidable mental-health crises. Pulaski County Schools in Kentucky implemented a universal screening tool pilot that identified an additional 16 percent of students who might need support and increased the number of school-based mental-health clinicians available to serve those students.¹⁶Ready, set, go, review: Screening for behavioral health risk in schools, US Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2019. And nearly 900 educators in San Antonio, Texas, have received mental-health first aid training to better support and determine student needs.¹⁷Emily Martin, “San Antonio ISD educators to receive mental health first aid training,” KSAT.com, updated August 3, 2021. Hawaii launched a telehealth effort, ensuring that the approximately 170,000 students in the state’s 295 schools will have free access to virtual one-on-one mental-health counseling services.¹⁸“Hawaii K–12 schools to implement telehealth statewide,” Government Technology, October 18, 2022.

The State of California and Henry County in Georgia have both developed nontraditional mental-health support roles to mitigate the human capital challenge. Through the Wellness Coach Program in California’s broader Children and Youth Behavioral Health Initiative, new or existing associate or bachelor’s degree holders can pair programs of study in education with 400 hours of structured behavioral-health field practicums. This program, which is set to begin in the fall of 2023 with a $360 million investment over five years, has the potential to expand the pipeline for mental-health professionals.¹⁹“Children and Youth Behavioral Health Initiative,” California Department of Health Care Access and Information, accessed June 11, 2023; “Behavioral Health Coach Quarterly Webinar,” California Department of Health Care Access and Information, October 2022. Henry County has added one mental-health and -wellness facilitator to every school in the district. These individuals can support students’ mental health by teaching techniques for managing anger and anxiety, fostering connectivity, and other actions.²⁰2022 annual report: 2021–2026 community-inspired strategic plan, Henry County Board of Education, August 2022.

As the period in which districts can supplement regular budgets with stimulus funding ends, Medicaid reimbursement for school mental-health supports could potentially help expand access. California has recently enacted policies in this vein that will reimburse school-based mental-healthcare costs for students enrolled in the state’s Medi-Cal Managed Care plans.²¹Children and Youth Behavioral Health Initiative: January 2023 progress report, California Health & Human Services Agency, January 2023. See detail on Student Behavioral Health Incentive Program (Department of Health Care Services).

Absenteeism

An estimated 15 million students were chronically absent during the 2021–22 school year.²²Comprehensive nationwide data on chronic absenteeism is currently unavailable. Accordingly, this is an estimate calculated by scaling state-reported chronic absenteeism data from California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and Louisiana as a representative sample of states to the population of the United States. This means that approximately one in three students is missing at least one day every two weeks, representing a dramatic increase in the incidence of chronic absenteeism: an estimated eight million students were chronically absent from 2018 to 2019. And early evidence shows limited signs of this trend abating.²³Jonaki Mehta, “3 years since the pandemic wrecked attendance, kids still aren’t showing up to school,” NPR, March 2, 2023. Calculated by scaling state-reported chronic absenteeism data from California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and Louisiana as a representative sample of states to the population of the United States. Absenteeism can have significant repercussions: research from the Utah Education Policy Center finds that chronically absent students are 1.7 times less likely to meet grade-level standards for reading and 7.4 times more likely to drop out of school.²⁴“Chronic absenteeism in Utah,” Utah Education Policy Center, University of Utah, September 26, 2013. According to our analysis, this puts roughly two million students on track to drop out before graduation—nearly double the rate before the pandemic.

The bright spots. While many factors that contribute to absenteeism may be outside schools’ control and results from efforts to curb absenteeism are still emerging, a few practices are showing promise for reengaging students.

Some districts, including Baltimore City and Sacramento City, are exploring more transparent and actionable data practices. Under a shared-data agreement in Baltimore, child welfare workers monitored attendance data and were able to identify 700 children each month for more social services.²⁵“Data sharing with child welfare system,” Attendance Works, September 2011. And Sacramento City developed a new system that enabled the district to better track and analyze attendance—and thereby identify students in need of intervention. Chronic absenteeism fell by an average of 2 percent in pilot schools.²⁶“Sac City: First, focus on infrastructure,” Attendance Works, May 2020.

In Louisiana, districts have tackled chronic absenteeism through restorative wraparound practices, such as launching positive-messaging campaigns about attendance and adding staff dedicated to lowering absenteeism starting in summer 2021. Chronic absenteeism in the state went from 28 percent in the 2020–21 school year to 19 percent in the 2021–22 school year, inching closer to the rate of 16 percent seen before the pandemic.²⁷“Statewide strategies focused on a restorative approach are improving attendance in Louisiana,” Attendance Works, December 1, 2022.

Increasing engagement with families may also help curb absenteeism. Connecticut lowered chronic absenteeism through home visits and personal engagement with families of students who were chronically absent or at elevated risk of becoming chronically absent, such as those transitioning from middle to high school.²⁸An evaluation of the effectiveness of home visits for re-engaging students who were chronically absent in the era of Covid-19, Center for Connecticut Education Research Collaboration, December 31, 2022. Fulton County, Georgia, sent thousands of text and mail nudges to families of students who were chronically absent or at-risk of being chronically absent during the 2020–21 school year and estimates that it prevented 8,000 to 18,000 absences across the district of 90,000 students.²⁹Case study: Improving attendance by engaging families as partners in student success, Fulton County Schools and EveryDay Labs, May 2021.

What it might take to scale

Here we focus on scaling bright-spot interventions in learning delay, given that this area currently has the broadest evidence base for the costs and effects of tested solutions. More research is needed to understand the investments necessary to scale mental-health and absenteeism interventions and to understand how to design comprehensive interventions that account for the interactions among learning, absenteeism, and mental health.

Theoretically, absent time and human capital constraints, dedicating the full remaining ESSER funding toward high-quality, high-intensity tutoring could address pandemic-related learning delays for every student with more than nine weeks (a quarter of a year) of learning delay in 42 out of 50 states. However, the reality is that districts are unlikely to be able to hire enough tutors, schedule enough sessions, and administer programs on that scale—and do so within the remaining months of ESSER.

Addressing pandemic-related learning delays in the real world and for as many students as possible will require layering interventions—HQIM, high-intensity tutoring, and summer learning. We consider three potential scenarios for layering interventions.

Scenario 1: Every district in the United States scales existing bright-spot interventions

Scaling existing bright-spot interventions nationally across these three learning interventions could address the pandemic-related learning delay of 57 percent of students within one year and still leave significant ESSER funds on the table (Exhibit 2).³⁰Scenario 1 would use an estimated $15.5 billion of roughly $91 billion in remaining ESSER funds, given that 43 percent of $190 billion in total ESSER funds have already been spent (as of December 31, 2022, according to the US Department of Education’s Education Stabilization Fund Transparency Portal), and an additional 15 percent of remaining funds have been budgeted (according to Burbio).

This would entail implementing HQIM for all students starting in the 2023–24 school year, offering summer learning to all students who need it, and offering high-intensity tutoring to about 8 percent of the K–12 population. However, this approach would not entirely close the learning gap: the remaining 43 percent, or 20.6 million students nationwide, would still have some pandemic-related learning delay.³¹Analysis of scaling bright spots in Scenario 1 suggests the ability to close 13.8 weeks of learning delay, meaning learning delay would be fully addressed for the 57 percent of students with this amount of learning loss or less, and some learning delay would remain for the 20.6 million students with more than 13.8 weeks of learning delay.

Scenario 2: Scale faster than existing bright-spot interventions

Closing the remaining gap within the ESSER budget envelope and timeline would be possible only if districts could roll out more-effective programs at a faster rate than we have seen to date. For example, districts could address the full extent of pandemic-related learning delays if they doubled the effectiveness of existing summer learning (toward what was experienced in highly effective prepandemic vacation acceleration academies) and found the capacity to tutor an additional 13.6 million students. However, given existing district capacity constraints and the tight time frame, this goal would be very challenging to achieve.

Scenario 3: Embed solutions on an ongoing basis

A more realistic and sustainable approach may be to embed practices into future budgets. Extending the recovery period from one year to two, providing an additional year of HQIM and aligned professional development for teachers, could address 83 percent of students with pandemic-related learning delays (Exhibit 3).

While this approach would not reach 100 percent of students, it has the potential to be more sustainable—despite the looming expiration of ESSER funds. Given that districts already include spending for instructional materials within their budgets, they need only bear the incremental cost of switching to HQIM.³²Our analysis assumes the cost to scale HQIM includes the transition cost of materials as well as the estimated professional learning costs for teachers using new materials. The cost to full penetration of HQIM is estimated using assumed current adoption rates for core and supplemental materials from the RAND 2021 American Instructional Resources Survey. Schools could consider using current staff or community partners to provide tutoring capacity. And given that many districts already offer summer school, they may not need to build entirely new programs but rather could improve upon the existing infrastructure. In general, it will be important to focus on models that can be sustained without significant incremental funding. Districts could also consider replacing less effective interventions and reallocating budgets toward the above solutions.

The challenges facing K–12 students in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic are complex and interrelated. However, there is hope in the emerging bright spots, which range from investments in human capital to innovations in learning and student support models. With layered and scaled interventions, districts could potentially address many of the learning delays attributed to the pandemic and start to narrow persistent learning gaps that predated it.³³Emma Dorn, Bryan Hancock, Jimmy Sarakatsannis, and Ellen Viruleg, “COVID-19 and education: The lingering effects of unfinished learning,” McKinsey, July 27, 2021.

Of course, significant barriers are likely to impede the implementation of these solutions. As districts, philanthropies, and private-sector actors work together to approach the theoretical recovery trajectories,³⁴“Halftime for the K–12 stimulus: How are districts faring?,” McKinsey, November 2, 2022. they would be well advised to understand the full impact of their interventions and the extent to which they address students’ most pressing challenges. This understanding would support districts in embedding effective interventions in their repertoire, helping to close not only the pandemic-induced gaps but also the persistent educational-opportunity gaps that have existed for generations.