Global Private Markets Report 2026

Conditions that affect private capital have begun to clear, but the road ahead will be more demanding.

In 2025, participants across the private capital ecosystem confronted profound uncertainty. How might economic trends and geopolitical events affect global dealmaking, capital flows, and investment returns? Which models for dealmakers, operators, fundraisers, and LPs would prove most effective? And when—at long last—would the fog begin to clear?

Now, the fog has burned off. A harder terrain has revealed itself: What had been a smooth surface for years has transformed into a far more challenging road. To separate from peers, distinctive players are taking the measure of the more technical, demanding conditions and actively driving value creation. The opportunities are substantial, but they can’t be realized by gliding down a highway.

With stakes this high, it’s essential for stakeholders to take a comprehensive, data-driven view of the global private markets industry, and to consider performance, fundraising, deal activity, and long-term trends.

Private equity: Clearer view, tougher terrain

Private equity in 2026 is now a mature industry—a dramatic shift from a decade ago. The conditions that once amplified returns—declining interest rates, expanding multiples, and abundant leverage—have passed. Outcomes will increasingly be shaped by deliberate choices: how investors exert sufficient discipline on asset selection and entry multiple; how early and consistently players create operational value; how successfully participants navigate and leverage AI; how rigorously they develop leadership; and how effectively they manage liquidity and risk through longer and more complex holding periods. Under those conditions, alpha is less likely to emerge from market dynamics alone. Increasingly, it will be made.

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~70% of surveyed global LPs plan to maintain or increase PE holdings in 2026

Real estate builds on new terrain

The real estate industry is evolving. Capital is moving again, but momentum is concentrated in specific sectors and strategies. Overall investment and deal activity remain well below historical highs. There likely won’t be a return to prior-cycle exuberance, at least in the near term. While falling cap rates and rising valuations drove returns in the last cycle, that tailwind is fading. The prevailing cycle is defined by strong execution, capital structure discipline, and platform scale. These dynamics create significant opportunities—and new challenges—for value creation.

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34% increase in Class A deal volume in the United States

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

In addition to the authors of these articles, several McKinsey Global Publishing contributors collaborated to produce this report, including Dana Sand, Diane Rice, Heather Byer, Mary Gayen, Nathan Wilson, Pooja Yadav, Roberta Fusaro, Sarah Thuerk, and Vero Henze.