Brent prices remained relatively steady at USD 67.9/bbl in September (+0.1 USD/bbl). Overall, prices are down by 8.2% y-o-y, and this can be attributed to a combination of OPEC+ supply growth and downward shift in risk premium:
- Global oil demand. Global liquids demand was flat at 104.6 MMb/d in September. Demand in the United States (-0.6 MMb/d) and the Middle East (-0.3 MMb/d) declined materially, but this was offset by gains in China (+1.1 MMb/d)
- OPEC 9 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 9’s production increased by 0.9 MMb/d to 29.0 MMb/d during September, mainly due to Saudi Arabia’s output increase of 0.7 MMb/d as the country rolls back voluntary cuts and recovers market share
- Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased by 0.1 MMb/d, reaching an all-time high of 64.7 MMb/d. This increase was mainly driven by the UK (+0.15 MMb/d), Norway (+0.1 MMb/d), and Brazil (+0.1 MMb/d)
- US shale oil production. US shale production increased by to 9.1 MMb/d (+0.1 MMb/d). The number of active rigs has been in decline since March 2025, totalling 524 in September (down 34 rigs y-o-y)
- Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. The combined production of Iran, Venezuela, and Libya has increased by 0.3 MMb/d to 5.7 MMb/d. Most of the increase was associated with Iran (+0.3 MMb/d) and Libya (+0.1 MMb/d), whereas Venezuelan supply remained stable
- Commercial inventories.1 Global commercial inventories rose in September, gaining around 120 million barrels to reach ~4.7 billion barrels, with the increase driven by both OECD and non-OECD inventories. Overall, stocks are 220 million barrels more than 5 year seasonal September average of ~4.5 billion barrels
- Market sentiment. The prevailing market sentiment remains bearish, echoing patterns seen in the previous months. This outlook is shaped by persistent global oversupply resulting from increased production both within and outside OPEC+, weakening international demand, and ongoing inventory growth. Brent prices are reflecting this pressure as the market grapples with fundamental imbalances in supply and demand
1 Non-OECD share of inventories is estimated, assuming that non-OECD inventories have 50% days of demand cover of OECD inventories
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Oil supply & demand dashboard: September 2025
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