Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: December 2025

January 28, 2026Brent averaged USD63.8/bbl, reflecting aUSD0.74/bbl m-o-m decline (14.19% y-o-y) amid rising inventory due to production gains outpacing demand:

• Global oil demand. Global oil demand remained flat at 104.67 MMb/d, with an increase of 0.9 MMb/d driven largely by a 1.2 MMb/d increase in China due to petrochemical and industrial demand, while oil demand in other countries has remained unchanged since October
• OPEC 9 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 9’s output held steady at 28.8 MMb/d, as Saudi Arabia maintained its production at 9.7 MMb/d rather than allowing an increase to avoid downward pressure on prices and maintain a tighter, more balanced market
• Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased by 0.5 MMb/d, reaching an all-time high of 65.0 MMb/d. This increase was mainly driven by field ramp-ups in Norway (+0.2 MMb/d) and Tengiz expansion in Kazakhstan (+0.23 MMb/d)
• US shale oil production. US shale output held steady at 9.2 MMb/d, while the rig count, now 528 in November (32 fewer than a year ago), inched higher versus September with four additional rigs running
• Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. The combined output from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya stayed flat at 5.6 MMb/d, with no change from Iran and stable volumes from Libya (+0.02 MMb/d) and Venezuela (-0.01 MMb/d)
• Commercial inventories.¹ Global commercial inventories increased by about 94 million barrels in November to roughly 4.8 billion barrels, driven solely by a build in non-OECD stocks, while OECD inventories stood at 32 million barrels. Overall, non-OECD inventories are now around 194 million barrels above the five-year seasonal November average of about 1.7 billion barrels
• Market sentiment.Current market sentiment remains strongly bearish for oil, driven by persistent oversupply from elevated non-OPEC production volumes. The mood stems from soft global demand signals amid economic slowdowns and accelerating energy transition measures—particularly EV adoption in China and Europe—widening the supply-demand gap

_{1 Non-OECD share of inventories is estimated, assuming that non-OECD inventories have 50% days of demand cover of OECD inventories}

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Oil supply & demand dashboard: December 2025

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