Brent averaged USD 66.6/bbl (+4.1 USD/bbl) as market remains oversupplied (+5mmb) reflecting inconsistent price movement owing to geopolitical and supply risks
- Global oil demand. Global oil demand stood at 102.7 MMb/d, (- 2.5 MMb/d). This was largely driven by a 0.9 MMb/d decline in China, a 0.5 MMb/d decline in Russia and 0.6 MMb/d decrease in Europe mainly because of seasonal lows exacerbated by extreme winter weather disrupting patterns
- OPEC 9 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 9’s was flat at 29 MMb/d (-0.04 MMb/d) meeting stable production quotas and overall compliance being satisfactory
- Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production decreased by 1.2 MMb/d, to 63 MMb/d, driven largely by Kazakhstan (-0.3 MMb/d due to fire damage forcing precautionary shutdown at Tengiz oilfield), by Canada (-0.1 MMb/d from winter weather), and by Brazil (-0.1 MMb/d due to temporary offshore platform outages)
- US shale oil production. US shale output declined to 8.9 MMb/d (-0.3 MMb/d) primarily due to cold weather across the Permian; the rig count stood at 527 in January (-1 vs December, -33 vs January 2025)
- Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. The combined output from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya declined to 5.4 MMb/d (-0.2 MMb/d). Venezuelan decline (-0.1 MMb/d) was linked to the US naval blockade, while Libya (-0.07 MMb/d) faced weather-related disruptions
- Commercial inventories.1 Global commercial inventories increased by about 5mmb in January to roughly 4.7bn barrels, driven by OECD (+15mmb). Overall, OECD inventories are now ~125mmb above the 5-year January average of 2.8bn barrels
- Market sentiment. The market remains oversupplied, and further OPEC+ production additions may be agreed after 1Q26. At the same time, sanctions are sidelining part of the accumulating Russian barrels, while episodic geopolitical tensions sparking only temporary price rallies
1 Non-OECD share of inventories is estimated, assuming that non-OECD inventories have 50% days of demand cover of OECD inventories
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Oil supply & demand dashboard: January 2026
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