The average Brent price fell to USD 64.5/bbl, a decline of USD 3.45/bbl, or 14.6% year-on-year, reflecting a persistent global supply glut and growing inventories as production continues to increase faster than demand:
- Global oil demand. Global oil demand fell to 103.7 MMb/d, driven largely by a 1.1 MMb/d decline in China linked to structural factors such as rapid electrification, partly offset by consumption in India (+0.3 MMb/d) and Africa (+0.1 MMb/d)
- OPEC 9 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 9’s output fell by 0.3 MMb/d to 28.8 MMb/d, largely because Saudi Arabia reduced its production by 0.4 MMb/d, a mostly intentional move aimed at supporting market stability through lower domestic oil supply
- Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased by 0.1 MMb/d, reaching an all-time high of 64.7 MMb/d. This increase was mainly driven by the UK (+0.2 MMb/d), Norway (+0.13 MMb/d), and Canada (+0.14 MMb/d)
- US shale oil production. U.S. shale output held steady at 9.0 MMb/d, while the active rig count has fallen since March 2025 to 531 in October (down 29 rigs year on year) but edged higher versus September, adding 7 rigs month on month
- Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. The combined production of Iran, Venezuela, and Libya has decreased by 0.06 MMb/d to 5.6 MMb/d. The slight decrease was associated with Iran (-0.02 MMb/d) and Libya (-0.04 MMb/d), whereas Venezuelan supply remained stable.
- Commercial inventories.1 Global commercial inventories increased by about 16 million barrels in October to roughly 4.7 billion barrels, driven solely by a build in OECD stocks, while non‑OECD inventories fell by 12 million barrels. Overall, OECD inventories are now around 112 million barrels above the five‑year seasonal October average of about 2.8 billion barrels
- Market sentiment. Current market sentiment continues to be notably bearish for the oil market. The mood is shaped by entrenched oversupply in global markets, with robust production levels sustained by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC nations. At the same time, international demand indicators are soft, with transport electrification and climate policies curbing consumption growth amplifying the imbalance between supply and consumption
1 Non-OECD share of inventories is estimated, assuming that non-OECD inventories have 50% days of demand cover of OECD inventories
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Oil supply & demand dashboard: October 2025
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