The period since the start of 2025 has been one to remember for metals and mining: Conflicts have disrupted trade routes and highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities; trade restrictions that once centered on a handful of critical minerals now extend to scrap; and macroeconomic uncertainty has sent central banks and investors alike into gold. Against that backdrop, the industry sits on record profitability and cash, yet overall productivity has not improved.
McKinsey’s third Global Materials Perspective report takes stock of this changing materials industry—its revenues, profit pools, and capital market performance—and examines the forces reshaping it.
The industry is experiencing record returns, driven by surging gold prices and shifting value pools
Metals and mining entered 2026 with some of the healthiest financials of the past decade. The industry’s EBITDA margins averaged 27 percent in 2025 (up from 19 percent in 2015), aggregate EBITDA totaled over $0.8 trillion, and market capitalization reached a record $3.7 trillion.
Yet revenues grew only about 1 percent, volumes were largely flat, and capital productivity declined. Margin expansion stemmed almost entirely from a shift toward higher-margin commodities—gold prices increased 45 percent year over year, and copper 9 percent, and gold overtook steel and thermal coal in the EBITDA pool for the first time, accounting for 28 percent of industry EBITDA. Shareholder returns diverged accordingly: Gold producers increased total shareholder returns (TSR) by 8.1 times between 2015 and 2025; copper producers by 6.3 times; coal producers by 5.7 times; and nickel producers by only 2.2 times.
Governments are increasingly treating materials as strategic and extending those measures to scrap
Export barriers that once focused on critical minerals with high supply concentration now increasingly cover scrap and recycled materials, putting pressure on recyclers that depend on imports. Physical vulnerabilities are also amplifying policy risk. When the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz cut Gulf sulfur exports, sulfuric acid costs spiked for refiners.
Governments have responded with strategic stockpiles, equity stakes and offtake agreements, and regional sourcing. Supply concentration kept rising, up three percentage points in both mining and refining between 2020 and 2025, and value is shifting upstream as processing margins are squeezed.
Tariffs are opening regional price gaps. For example, between February 2025, when the United States announced new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and June 2026, a US-manufactured C-class battery electric vehicle incurred more than $1,200 in higher materials costs than its China-made equivalent.1 For a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle, steel, copper, and aluminum alone added more than $900 per vehicle.
Capital and talent may need to be boosted and reshuffled as demand shifts and broadens
This year’s Global Materials Perspective points to resilient demand growth across most commodities through 2030, with coal, steel and iron ore, and platinum group metals being the notable exceptions. Data centers already contribute 0.4 percent of metals and mining revenue and are expected to account for about 6.2 percent of gallium demand and 4.3 percent of copper demand by 2030.
Regionally, China’s share of global metals revenue fell to about 42 percent in 2025, down from a 2020 peak of about 48 percent, and is projected to decline to 38 percent by 2035. India is already the second-largest market, accounting for about 10 percent of global metals revenue in 2025, and is among the fastest growing.
Long-range supply–demand gaps have narrowed since 2025, but deficits remain for copper (about 10 percent), silver, rare earths (more than 20 percent), nickel (between 10 and 20 percent), and manganese.
Closing the next decade’s supply gap is likely to require an estimated $4.2 trillion in mining and processing capital, and the industry faces an estimated net need for more than 310,000 additional workers globally.
Productivity has stalled, leaving a $450 billion to $750 billion opportunity
Mining productivity stagnated again in 2025, even as capital expenditures, M&A activity, and margins stayed high. Unit costs for copper, gold, and iron ore have risen between 28 and 36 percent since 2020, compared with a 24 percent increase in the US consumer price index.
Annual productivity potential ranging from $450 billion to $750 billion—roughly 15 to 25 percent of industry revenues—sits across operational excellence (about $300 billion to $475 billion), procurement excellence ($75 billion to $150 billion), and capital excellence ($75 billion to $125 billion). Several productivity levers have seen accelerated implementation in recent years. For example, the global fleet of autonomous hauling systems has roughly tripled over the past two years, yet implementation has been uneven, with China often moving much faster than other regions.
The years ahead may prove to be an inflection point for productivity in the industry, making it a main source of competitive advantage. When prices normalize, productivity could become the primary source of margin expansion.
Innovation and scrap are growing in importance
Industry greenhouse gas emissions fell slightly in 2025, mainly because of lower steel production, even though it was a record year for global thermal coal production. Emissions are projected to decline by only 8 percent by 2035, driven primarily by grid decarbonization and efficiency gains rather than by net-zero asset-level transitions, several of which have been paused or canceled in Europe because customers have not signaled a willingness to pay for lower-carbon materials.
A further step-up in innovation may be required, particularly in steel, aluminum, and battery materials. Scrap offers a lower-carbon and often more economical supply alternative, and both Europe and the United States have moved to restrict scrap exports. Innovation in processing and upgrading lower-quality scrap flows is a potential opportunity.
Why this matters
The Global Materials Perspective 2026 offers a pragmatic, data-driven fact base for decision-makers—whether in government, industry, or financial sectors—and reminds us of the following factors:
- Current record profitability is a function of commodity prices, not operational improvement. Sustaining performance may depend on investment in exploration, expansion, and productivity.
- Materials are increasingly a matter of national strategy.
- Demand is shifting across markets and regions, and capital and talent may need to follow.
- The productivity toolbox has never been larger, yet much of the potential value remains untapped.
- Decarbonization is not on track. Bending the trajectory may require innovation, alongside greater scrap collection.
The materials industry is entering a period in which the gap between leaders and laggards could widen. The decisions companies make now—on capital allocation, supply chains, technology, and talent—could shape the industry’s resilience and returns over the next decade.
Watch the full webinar for a deeper dive into the data behind the report.
1.“Adjusting imports of steel into the United States,” Proclamation 10896, White House, February 10, 2025; “Adjusting imports of aluminum into the United States,” Proclamation 10895, White House, February 10, 2025; “Adjusting imports of aluminum and steel into the United States,” Proclamation 10947, White House, June 3, 2025; “Adjusting imports of copper into the United States,” Proclamation 10962, White House, July 30, 2025.