Drone delivery services are scaling up, with more than 800,000 paid commercial deliveries globally in 2023. In the United States alone, our latest projections place the serviceable addressable market at $5 billion by 2035, with approximately 1.5 billion annual deliveries expected.1 Consequently, drone delivery is one of the earliest commercialized segments within the broader future air mobility industry, which includes other commercial drone use cases, such as inspection or surveillance, as well as other platforms that use novel aircraft, such as urban air mobility and regional air mobility.
To understand the most attractive market segments for commercial drone delivery and how the industry might evolve around the globe, McKinsey surveyed more than 3,000 consumers in six countries: Brazil, China, Germany, India, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. The results show that most consumers are aware of commercial drone deliveries and many are willing to switch to these services and pay for them (exhibit).
Overall, 83 percent of survey respondents say they are aware of drone-delivery services. Such widespread knowledge about drones is striking, given that only a small percentage of respondents have firsthand experience with them. While limited availability is the leading reason for lack of experience, high costs, regulatory hurdles, and logistical challenges also may be factors. For individual markets, awareness levels are highest in India (90 percent) and lowest in Saudi Arabia (79 percent).
Globally, 76 percent of respondents say they are willing to switch to commercial drone deliveries from other delivery modes, representing a 19 percent increase from the prior survey in 2021. As with familiarity, there are notable regional differences. In India, 92 percent of consumers are willing to switch, putting the country in first place for stated adoption willingness. Respondents in China, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia also show strong support, with over 80 precent in all three countries reporting a willingness to switch. The percentages in Germany (57 percent) and the United States (53 percent) are lower.
More than half of survey respondents (58 percent) indicate they are willing to pay a premium for drone deliveries compared to traditional delivery methods, and a substantial number—35 percent—are prepared to pay up to 1.5 times more. India ranks first for willingness to pay, at 74 percent, and the United States is last, at 37 percent.
We also examined willingness to switch and willingness to pay for specific use cases, including deliveries for medical supplies and prescriptions, prepared food (including restaurant meals and meal services), convenience purchases of everyday items and groceries, and express shipping within a few hours for immediate needs. Consumers are most inclined to switch to drones for express shipping (56 percent). Willingness to pay also is highest for express shipping in all markets except China, where medical deliveries rank first. The importance of delivery speed is not surprising, since 20 percent of consumers surveyed report that they now select and pay for expedited shipping within 24 hours through traditional transport modes. Further, survey respondents cite faster delivery as the most attractive aspect of drone deliveries globally—a significant shift from our 2021 survey, when delivery cost was the top factor.
Certain personal characteristics appear to influence attitudes about commercial drones. For instance, 80 percent of survey respondents who live in or near a major city indicate that they are willing to switch to commercial drones, compared with 67 percent for respondents living more than 20 kilometers from a city. Likewise, frequent shoppers—defined as those who order deliveries at least once a week—express a greater willingness to pay for drone services. Of the frequent shoppers in our survey, 68 percent say they are willing to pay more for food deliveries, compared with 44 percent of infrequent shoppers—a difference of almost 25 percent. Therefore, consumers who are already comfortable ordering food delivery and habitually order out of convenience could be early adopters of drone delivery, even before costs are at parity with alternatives.
Our recent survey shows that consumer awareness of commercial delivery drones is surprisingly high for a service that is just starting to scale up. Similarly, the high willingness to switch to this delivery method and pay a premium for it are meaningful. These findings suggest that consumers are ready for drone deliveries and that the demand is there. Now retailers, restaurants, and other operators need to scale up their offerings, focusing on services for which consumers show the greatest interest.
Andrea Cornell is an alumna of McKinsey’s Denver office; Robin Riedel is a partner in the Bay Area office, where Chang Liu and Tita Ramos are consultants; and Ryan Brown is a consultant in the Seattle office.
1 McKinsey Drone Delivery Tracker and Forecast.