Global aid faces a pivotal moment. After years of official development assistance increasing, major foreign donors have announced significant reductions. As a result, a 15 to 22 percent reduction in funds is expected, for an estimated loss of $41 billion to $60 billion, according to Senior Partner Tania Holt and coauthors. Stakeholders can consider several levers to combat these challenges, including mobilizing additional resources and reprioritizing investments and programs.
Image description:
A stacked bar chart displays the composition of total global official development assistance (ODA) in billions of dollars from 2002 to 2023, and a projected future state. The chart shows 5 categories of ODA: multilateral, EU institutions, other bilateral, non-US NATO bilateral, and US government bilateral. Each bar is segmented to represent the relative contribution of each category to the total ODA in a given year.
The data reveals a significant increase in total ODA from approximately $80 billion in 2002 to >$275 billion in 2023. A notable feature is the largest decline to date of 32%, marked in the 2006 bar, indicating a sharp decrease in 2007. The chart also projects a significant future decrease in total ODA, ranging from 15% to 22%, falling to approximately $215 billion to $234 billion. The composition of ODA in the projected future state is also indicated; the relative proportions of each type of aid may change.
Note: This image description was completed with the assistance of Writer, a gen AI tool.
Source: Center for Global Development; ForeignAssistance.gov; International Monetary Fund; OECD.
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To read the article, see “A generational shift: The future of foreign aid,” May 6, 2025.