Global economic conditions at the moment appear sunny, but clouds may be gathering on the horizon, executives say in the latest McKinsey Global Survey. Given four potential near-term scenarios, survey respondents were more likely in June than they were in March to select the two that lead to a recession, senior partner Sven Smit and colleagues explain. Concerns about changes in trade policy and anticipated increases in domestic unemployment rates are some of the reasons for the cautious outlook.
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Vertical bar charts compare McKinsey Global Survey respondents’ views on 4 potential near-term scenarios for the global economy in March and June 2024. In March, 63% of executives predicted a “soft landing” of the global economy as the most likely scenario, followed by a recession at 38 percent. In June, 53% predicted a recession and 47% predicted a soft landing. Executives were less concerned that inflation would remain high, with 31% ranking it as most likely to occur, compared with 37% in March. Only 16% predicted growth accelerating, compared with 26% in March.
Source: McKinsey Global Surveys on economic conditions, 2024; McKinsey analysis.
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To read the article, see “Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, June 2024,” July 25, 2024.
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