US state-level leaders have an opportunity to play a key role in accelerating the transition to clean energy. Planning for power demand under various scenarios is one way leaders can potentially stay a step ahead, according to senior partner Adi Kumar and coauthors. Understanding different projections for future energy demand could help leaders anticipate how resources and planned activities might evolve—while ensuring the grid is still reliable.
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Two segmented bar graphs show the projected makeup of power generation by source from 2021 to 2050, using two scenarios: base case and net zero by 2035. Both scenarios index at 100% in 2021. In the base case scenario, coal drops to near zero by 2030, gas maintains a presence to 2050, and onshore and offshore wind, solar, and nuclear, in descending order, dominate the remaining power generation sources. In the net-zero by 2035 scenario, coal drops to near zero by 2030, gas disappears after 2040, and onshore and offshore wind, solar, and nuclear, in descending order, dominate the remaining power generation sources, supported by biomass. The base case scenario indexes at 185% by 2050, and the net-zero by 2035 scenario at 214% by 2050.
Footnotes: The “base case” scenario from McKinsey’s 2023 Global Energy Perspective: “current trajectory of renewables cost decline continues; however, currently active policies remain insufficient to close gap to ambition; global temperature increase of 2.3 degrees Celsius by 2050.” “Net zero by 2035” is an aggressive decarbonization scenario from McKinsey’s 2023 Global Energy Perspective: “net-zero commitments achieved by leading countries through purposeful policies, and followers transition at a slower pace; global temperature increase of 1.6 degrees Celsius by 2050.”
Source: McKinsey’s 2023 Global Energy Perspective.
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To read the article, see “How US states can advance a successful clean-energy transition,” January 29, 2024.