Hot take on heat energy

On the path to meeting decarbonization targets, heat pumps could play a role in the industrial sector, in which heating accounts for more than 20 percent of global CO2 emissions. Senior partner Harald Bauer and colleagues explain that sectors with high heat demand, such as chemicals and paper and pulp, are particularly well-suited for using heat pumps. Because of their abatement potential, heat pumps could see growth in the global market of up to 15 percent annually this decade.

The global market for heat pumps is expected to grow by more than 15 percent per annum until 2030.

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A pair of tree map charts show the global industrial heat pump market for 2023 and the projected market for 2030. The tree maps are divided into regional segments. Between 2023 and 2030, the value of the industrial heat pump market in Europe grows from $0.9 billion to between $2.0 billion and $4.0 billion. Latin America’s grows from $0.9 billion to $1.0 billion. Other Asia’s grows from $0.9 billion to between $2.0 billion and $4.0 billion. North America’s grows from $0.7 billion to between $1.0 billion and $2.0 billion. Africa, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the Middle East’s grows from $0.3 billion to between $1.0 billion and $2.0 billion. Greater China’s grows from $0.3 billion to between $5.0 billion and $8.0 billion. Overall, the global market grows from ~$4.0 billion to between ~$12.0 billion and ~$21.0 billion.

Source: Global Energy Perspective 2023, McKinsey, Oct 2023 (Current Trajectory and Achieved Commitments scenarios); McKinsey’s Platform for Industrial Electrification.

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To read the article, see “Industrial heat pumps: Five considerations for future growth,” March 19, 2024.