Amid ongoing global geopolitical tensions, some companies are looking to untangle complex export control restrictions. However, while import data and customs duties are often publicly available, information on export controls is less accessible, and export control trends are tougher to analyze, Senior Partner Shubham Singhal and coauthors explain. For instance, US chip exports to China were expected to decline significantly after the United States in 2022 imposed greater controls on semiconductor exports to China. But the controls targeted a narrow subset of chips and manufacturing tools, and there has been no noticeable impact on market trends after two years.
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A stacked bar chart displays US-semiconductor-related exports to China in billions of dollars from 2014 to 2024. The chart is segmented into 3 categories: integrated circuits, materials for integrated circuits, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In 2014, exports totaled ~$7 billion, with integrated circuits comprising the majority. A gradual increase is observed through 2018, reaching ~$11 billion. A notable surge occurs by 2021, with exports exceeding $20 billion, driven by a substantial increase in integrated circuits and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. A slight decline is seen in 2022, followed by a moderate rise in 2023 and 2024, staying relatively consistent at ~$16 billion. Annotations below the chart detail key events and policy changes related to US export controls on semiconductors to China throughout the period, including the addition of various Chinese telecom manufacturers to the DOC Entity List in 2016 and 2019, the expansion of the foreign-produced direct product rule in 2020, and significant new restrictions on advanced chips and Chinese fabs in 2022. Further restrictions on advanced chips and Chinese fabs are noted for 2023, followed by restrictions on advanced chips and chip manufacturing tools expanding in 2024. A projected expansion of restrictions on China’s access to GPU capacity is forecast for 2025.
Note: This image description was completed with the assistance of Writer, a gen AI tool.
Source: US International Trade Commission DataWeb.
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To read the article, see “Restricted: How export controls are reshaping markets,” April 3, 2025.