Since June, we have surveyed thousands of global executives on what the COVID-19 crisis’s impact would be on domestic GDP based on the likelihood of nine economic scenarios. Throughout that time, respondents in China have reported a consistent—and consistently more optimistic—outlook.
We surveyed thousands of global executives on the likelihood that one of nine economic outcomes of the COVID-19 crisis will occur in their home countries.
Chart summary
A stacked chart compares executives' responses to five surveys, each survey covering the same seven countries. Notable results in the most recent survey:
- China: 78% of respondents predicted the better health outcome of "contained health impact". Among all China respondents, 29% predicted the better economic outcome, compared with 0–15% of respondents in the other six countries.
- Australia: Compared to the other countries, Australia respondents were the most optimistic about health outcomes, yet the most pessimistic about economic outcomes. 80% predicted the better health outcome. 57% predicted the worse economic outcome.
- Germany: Responses were mixed. The most frequent response (37%) was scenario A1, the scenario with middle health and middle economic outcomes.
- India: 54% predicted the middle economic outcome. Responses on health outcomes were mixed.
- Italy, United Kingdom, and United States respondents were pessimistic about health outcomes, with 12–20% predicting the worse health outcome and only 32–42% predicting the better health outcome. At the same time, US respondents were less pessimistic about economic outcomes than Italy and UK respondents were. Only 34% of US respondents predicted the worse economic outcome, compared with 47% for the UK and 52% for Italy.
Across the seven countries surveyed, the overall most frequent response (27%) was scenario A1, the scenario with middle health and middle economic outcomes.
Trends across the five survey dates
The five surveys were evenly spaced from June through December. Responses within individual countries varied up and down across the survey dates, but overall response percentages did not show prominent trends.
Chart data for the most recent survey
| Health outcome | Economic outcome | Scenario description | Scenario number | Australia | China | Germany | India | Italy | UK | US | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Better health | Better economy | Contained health impact; rapid and strong growth rebound and recovery | A4 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| Middle economy | Contained health impact; strong growth rebound and recovery | A3 | 23 | 28 | 13 | 29 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 13 | |
| Worse economy | Contained health impact; sector damage and lower long-term growth | B1 | 53 | 25 | 18 | 21 | 29 | 27 | 20 | 23 | |
| Middle health | Better economy | Recurring health impact; strong growth rebound and recovery | A2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Middle economy | Recurring health impact; slower near-term growth and time to recovery | A1 | 14 | 8 | 37 | 20 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 27 | |
| Worse economy | Recurring health impact; slow long-term growth insufficient to deliver full recovery | B2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 12 | |
| Worse health | Better economy | High levels of health impact; delayed but strong growth rebound and recovery | B5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Middle economy | High levels of health impact; slower near-term growth and delayed recovery | B4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 9 | |
| Worse economy | High levels of health impact; prolonged downturn without foreseeable recovery | B3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
McKinsey & Company
To explore the interactive, see “Nine scenarios for the COVID-19 economy,” December 18, 2020.