The commercial-aviation industry is poised for an uptick in aircraft deliveries, owing to a backlog of orders and ongoing supply chain challenges. Aerospace OEMs are expected to ramp up production in the next few years, which should increase deliveries by an average of 4 percent annually for the next ten years, according to partner Daniel Leblanc and colleagues. Meanwhile, aircraft retirement rates will likely remain low, meaning a greater need for maintenance, repair, and overhaul services.
Image description:
A line graph shows 2 lines illustrating projected changes in commercial-aircraft deliveries and retirements, 2020–34. The line representing deliveries starts at 1.5 thousand aircraft in 2020, dips to 0.8 thousand in 2021, then climbs steadily to 2.1 thousand by 2025. It then climbs more slowly, reaching 2.7 thousand by 2034. The line representing retirements starts at 0.7 thousand aircraft in 2020, dips to 0.5 thousand in 2021, then climbs steadily to 0.8 thousand by 2025. It then climbs more slowly, reaching 1.0 thousand by 2034. Deliveries shows a growth rate of 4.0% per annum, and retirements shows a growth rate of 4.5% per annum. A shaded gray box labeled “Forecast” highlights the years 2025–34.
Source: Aviation Week Network; Cirium; McKinsey analysis.
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To read the article, see “What does the future hold for commercial-aviation maintenance?,” July 17, 2024.