This week, our charts feature the latest insights in aviation—from soaring fleet demands to landing the right talent and more.
With leisure travel back to prepandemic levels, the commercial-aviation fleet is expected to grow by 3.2 percent annually to meet passenger demand. Partner Daniel Leblanc and coauthors find that narrow-body aircraft will account for nearly 70 percent of the in-service fleet by 2034 and sustain a growth rate of 4.4 percent over that period. The fleet of smaller, regional turboprop aircraft will shrink. With more aircraft in use, demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul services is expected to grow 1.2 percent through 2034.
Image description:
A pair of charts with sets of vertical stacked bar graphs present data about the global commercial aviation fleet from 2019 through 2034. Each bar is divided into 4 stacked segments in different colors, each representing a different type of aircraft: narrow-body jet, wide-body jet, regional jet, and regional turboprop. The left chart shows the total projected growth of the fleet in thousands of aircraft, along with changes in the numbers for each type of aircraft. The right chart illustrates the percentage of each type of aircraft in the fleet and how it changes over time. Per the charts, the in-service commercial-aviation fleet is projected to grow in the coming years, from ~25,000 aircraft in 2020 to over 42,000 aircraft in 2034. Narrow-body aircraft are predicted to lead the way in the expansion, while the number of regional turboprops is expected to decrease slightly. Numbers at the top right of the chart represent the estimated CAGR for the global fleet from 2024–34, with the highest rate of 4.4% for narrow-body jets, followed by 2.0% for wide-body jets, 1.0% for regional jets, and a reduction of 0.9% for regional turboprop aircraft.
Source: Aviation Week Network; Cirium; McKinsey analysis.
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To read the report, see “What does the future hold for commercial-aviation maintenance?,” July 17, 2024.