Oil & Gas Travel & Transportation November 23, 2020COVID-19 and geopolitics have sharply affected demand for transport of crude oil and many bulk products. After a short-term rebound, demand likely will remain lower for longer. Meantime, outstanding orders will continue to increase tanker supply. With the growing number of outstanding shipbuilding orders, crude tanker oversupply will intensify in the next few years. Growth rate of global crude oil shipping demand and capacity, year over year, % Year Crude oil shipping demand 1 Crude oil shipping capacity 2016 6.8 2.4 2017 5.8 5.8 2018 3 5 2019 1.4 1 2020 -4 6.2 2021 3.5 3 2022 .75 1.75 2023 .5 1.75 2024 .25 1.75 2025 1 1.75 Global crude oil tanker capacity, by ship type, million tons Ship type 2015 2020 2021 2022 VLCC2 193 247 257 263 Suezmax 73 89 92 93 Aframax 68 73 73 74 Panamax 8 7 7 7 Handymax 29 37 38 39 Total 371 453 467 476 CAGR by ship type, % Ship type CAGR, 2015-20, % CAGR, 2020-22, % VLCC2 5 6 Suezmax 4 6 Aframax 1 3 Panamax -2 -1 Handymax 5 3 (Overall numbers) 4 5 Notes 1Calculated as ton, minus nautical miles. 2Very large crude carrier. Source: Clarksons; Energy Insights by Mckinsey McKinsey & Company To read the article, see “Data will decide success in the next normal of bulk and tanker shipping,” November 16, 2020.