COVID-19 and geopolitics have sharply affected demand for transport of crude oil and many bulk products. After a short-term rebound, demand likely will remain lower for longer. Meantime, outstanding orders will continue to increase tanker supply.
With the growing number of outstanding shipbuilding orders, crude tanker oversupply will intensify in the next few years.
| Year | Crude oil shipping demand 1 | Crude oil shipping capacity |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 6.8 | 2.4 |
| 2017 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 2018 | 3 | 5 |
| 2019 | 1.4 | 1 |
| 2020 | -4 | 6.2 |
| 2021 | 3.5 | 3 |
| 2022 | .75 | 1.75 |
| 2023 | .5 | 1.75 |
| 2024 | .25 | 1.75 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1.75 |
| Ship type | 2015 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC2 | 193 | 247 | 257 | 263 |
| Suezmax | 73 | 89 | 92 | 93 |
| Aframax | 68 | 73 | 73 | 74 |
| Panamax | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Handymax | 29 | 37 | 38 | 39 |
| Total | 371 | 453 | 467 | 476 |
| Ship type | CAGR, 2015-20, % | CAGR, 2020-22, % |
|---|---|---|
| VLCC2 | 5 | 6 |
| Suezmax | 4 | 6 |
| Aframax | 1 | 3 |
| Panamax | -2 | -1 |
| Handymax | 5 | 3 |
| (Overall numbers) | 4 | 5 |
Notes
1Calculated as ton, minus nautical miles.
2Very large crude carrier.
Source: Clarksons; Energy Insights by Mckinsey
McKinsey & Company
To read the article, see “Data will decide success in the next normal of bulk and tanker shipping,” November 16, 2020.