There won’t be much of a shift away from private vehicles in North America over the coming decade—largely because there aren’t many incentives for drivers to change their behavior. But Europeans may ditch private vehicles for robo-shuttles and robo-taxis, and in Greater China, people may increasingly change to bus and rail.
Comparing large global cities highlights significant differences in expected regional mode-share shifts through 2030.
|North America - Car-reliant major cities||Europe - Western metropolitan areas||East Asia4 - Metropolitan areas||South America - Southern Cone cities||Greater China5 - Tier-1 cities||South Asia - Metropolitan areas|
|Taxi or e-hailing||1.6||1.6||5.1||3.3||3||3.5||0.9||1.6||6.1||5.8||0.9||0.3|
|Public transit (bus)||3.9||1.4||16.8||13.1||10.8||10.1||33||39.3||22.2||22.2||10.3||12.1|
|Public transit (rail)||0.7||0.5||19.6||22.4||42.1||46.7||21.5||22.7||34.6||39.7||79.9||80|
Car-based infrastructure limits disruptions
AVs6 disrupt transit usage in city centers
Street redesigns cut congestion and car usage
Reliable, high-quality transit withstands disruption
Shared AVs are widely available but sparingly used
AV shuttles penetrate taxi/bus networks
Cycle paths and regulations limiting cars reduce congestion
Public transit gets large investments
Robotaxis see limited use because of lower-income residents
AVs struggle to operate in chaotic streets
Crowded rail networks are most used
1Policy-guided shift to pooled autonomous-vehicle and transit scenario.
2New modes include roboshuttles, as well as pooled and unpooled robotaxis.
3"Other" includes walking, biking, private micromobility, 2- and 3-wheelers.
4Utilizes Japan city archetype for Tokyo.
5Greater China encompasses mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
McKinsey & Company
To read the article, see “From no mobility to future mobility: Where COVID-19 has accelerated change,” December 15, 2020.