America’s future of work
As intelligent machines enter the workplace, some occupations are shrinking. At the same time, the economy is generating new jobs—although they may be different occupations in different locations. What does the future of work hold for places and people across the United States?
Jobs that could be lost to automation are found in every community, but their concentration varies
Job losses will occur nationwide. In 90 percent of US counties, the potential displacement rate is between 22 and 27 percent. But there are variations, ranging from 18 percent all the way to 33 percent in some hard-hit places.
The average displacement rate is highest across low-growth and rural segments, and lowest in the urban core cities.
While automation phases out some jobs, the US economy will continue generating others
Net job growth is likely to be concentrated in urban areas, while thousands of rural counties could experience a decade of flat or even negative job growth.
Places with more robust and diverse economies, high-growth industries, and better-educated populations are better positioned for employment growth.
The occupational mix in each place affects its growth prospects
Automation will affect some of the largest occupational categories in the US economy, phasing out jobs in office support, food service, production work, and customer service and retail sales. At the same time, healthcare, STEM occupations, creatives and arts management, and business services could add jobs.
These nationwide trends are likely to play out with variations across local economies.
Some growing categories (such as STEM fields or business and legal professionals) are more heavily concentrated in the urban core, allowing these cities to capture a greater share of national job growth.
Some of the highly automatable jobs that are set to decline over the next decade, such as manufacturing production roles, are more likely to be located in low-growth and rural counties.
Education
People with no postsecondary education could account for more than three-quarters of automation-related displacements. They are four times as likely to be in a highly automatable role than individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Ethnicity
Because educational attainment and race are correlated, minority groups with more limited access to quality education are at higher risk of displacement. Today’s Hispanic workers are more likely to work in slow-growing or declining sectors, while Asian-American workers are more heavily represented in fast-growing fields.
Age
Workers ages 18 to 34 hold almost 40 percent (14.7 million) of the jobs that could be lost, raising questions about how young people will launch careers. Meanwhile, 11.5 million Americans over age 50 are in roles that could be automated.
Gender
Because they are concentrated in roles involving repetitive, physically intensive work, men could be displaced at higher rates than women. If we assume that the current gender breakdown of occupations remains constant, women could account for 58 percent of net job growth, thanks to their representation in growing fields such as healthcare and personal care work.
Meeting the challenges
As machines begin to handle a wider range of tasks, millions of Americans may need to move to new roles, new companies, new industries, or new geographies. At the same time, almost all jobs will evolve, with a different mix of tasks and heavier use of technology.
The trends outlined here could widen existing disparities between high-growth cities and struggling rural areas, and between demographic groups. But policy and investment choices can lead to better outcomes. It is possible to use this period of technological change to create more rewarding jobs, build better learning systems, and develop career pathways that serve more Americans.
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