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The electric-vehicle outlook is stronger in China and Europe than in the United States

By 2030, regulations and incentives in China and Europe will likely propel electric-vehicle market share to at least a third of all light-vehicle sales. In the United States, that much market share would require an aggressive pickup in sales.

Growth in electric-vehicle market will vary by region through 2030; two scenarios (chart)

Growth in electric-vehicle market share will vary by region through 2030.

Projected electric-vehicle share of light-vehicle market, %
Scenario China Europe United States3
Actual - 2020 7 7 3
Base scenario2 - 2030 37 33 17
Aggressive scenario1 - 2030 52 44 36

Notes

Preliminary projections, as of June 5, 2020; includes battery-powered electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (light-vehicle market).

1Assumptions include China meeting State Council emission targets, Europe missing 2020 emission-reduction targets and accelerating regulatory targets after 2025, and United States increasing adoption of California Air Resources Board (CARB) mandates, with consumer demand slowing adoption after 2025.

2Assumptions include China meeting State Council emissions targets, Europe missing 2020 emission-reduction targets and extending CO2 limits proposed in November 2017 beyond 2025, and United States increasing adoption of CARB mandates.

3Decreased oil prices likely to diminish electric-vehicle market share by another 5% (to 12% in base scenario and 31% in aggressive scenario).

Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility analysis

McKinsey & Company

To read the article, see “Electric mobility after the crisis: Why an auto slowdown won’t hurt EV demand,” September 16, 2020.